The NFL’s legal tampering period begins next Monday, March 11th, allowing teams to secure verbal commitments from players for signing. Most recently, we had the NFL franchise tag deadline. Notably, not a single running back was franchise-tagged, rendering them all unrestricted free agents.
Last offseason, the running back market was notably slow, and there’s a possibility it could follow a similar pattern this year. However, with a weaker rookie running back class and several elite talents available, there’s a likelihood of a faster pace this time around.
5 Best Free Agent Running Back Landing Spots
In this article, we’ll explore our predictions for where we believe the top 5 free agents will land this offseason. A recurring theme among these backs is that most of them experienced downturns in performance last season. Most importantly, we’ll break down landing spots with your dynasty fantasy football rosters in mind. Let’s get right into it.
Saquon Barkley
2023 Fantasy Football Stats
Rushing
962 Rushing Yards | 3.9 Yards per Carry | 6 Rushing Touchdowns | 2 Fumbles
Receiving
280 Receiving Yards | 41 Receptions | 6.8 Yards Per Catch | 4 Receiving Touchdowns | 0.96 Yards per Route Run
Barkley finished as running back 13 in PPR scoring in 2023. Needless to say, this is a significant drop from his ADP of 10 and 4th overall for running backs, marking it as a disappointment compared to his RB5 finish in 2022.
It seems that the Giants and Barkley are on the path to parting ways in the eyes of many. While the team tagged him last year, they chose not to do so this year. Barkley struggled with a lingering ankle sprain last season, causing him to miss three games. His performance upon returning didn’t seem to reflect his full potential. Growing up in Pennsylvania, which is close to New York, Barkley has expressed a desire to remain in the area.
According to Spotrac, the Giants are projected to have $41,001,620 available when the new league year starts on March 13th at 4 PM, EST.
Best Landing Spot – New York Giants
Ultimately, I believe the Giants and Barkley will come to an agreement. Although I don’t consider it the optimal choice for either party, I firmly believe they will find a way to work things out.
Josh Jacobs
2023 Fantasy Football Stats
Rushing
805 Rushing Yards | 3.5 Yards per Carry | 6 Rushing Touchdowns | 3 Fumbles
Receiving
238 Receiving Yards | 37 Receptions | 8 Yards per Catch | 0 Receiving Touchdowns | 1.24 Yards per Route Run
Similar to Barkley, Jacobs was subject to the franchise tag in 2023. He held out of training camp until a deal was reached, eventually returning on a 1-year contract with the Raiders. Missing 4 games last season opened the door for Zamir White to showcase his skills. White made the most of his opportunities, with two games of over 100 yards and 84 touches in 4 games. This indicated to many that the Raiders were eager to evaluate White, possibly in preparation for Jacobs’ expected departure in the 2024 offseason. This sets the stage for the current situation.
Best Landing Spot – Houston Texans
With $70,029,015 in cap space, this scenario seems to be an ideal fit for DeMeco Ryan’s squad. The prospect of pairing their young, cost-controlled QB in CJ Stroud with a bell-cow back like Jacobs feels like a match made in heaven for both the team and Dynasty owners alike.
Tony Pollard
2023 Fantasy Football Stats
Rushing
1,061 Rushing Yards | 4.0 Yards per Carry | 7 Rushing Touchdowns | 3 Fumbles
Receiving
340 Receiving Yards | 62 Receptions | 5.4 Yards per Catch | 0 Receiving Touchdowns | 0.77 Yards per Route Run
Pollard wrapped up the year as running back 14 in PPR scoring, falling short of his ADP of 12th overall and 5th among running backs. Like others on this list, he didn’t meet the expectations set by fantasy owners’ draft capital.
The Cowboys handed Ezekiel Elliott a substantial contract extension in 2020, a move that many viewed as questionable due to the wear and tear on his body. Given Pollard’s youth, it’s likely he’ll be seeking a longer, more lucrative deal that Dallas may not be willing to offer. While Pollard was tagged last season, the Cowboys chose not to do so this time around. Pollard thrives in a zone-blocking run scheme, a factor he’ll likely consider wherever he decides to go.
Best Landing Spot – Chicago Bears
With $57,556,870 in cap space this offseason, the Bears find themselves in a favorable position. If they draft Caleb Williams, similar to the Texans, it would provide them with the flexibility to bring in an expensive running back. Personally, my prediction is that the Bears will make a strong push for Jacobs, but may ultimately settle for Pollard instead. Pollard could offer a nice change of pace in their backfield. If they do select a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft, pairing them with a reliable running back becomes paramount for the Bears’ offensive success.
D’Andre Swift
2023 Fantasy Football Stats
Rushing
1,083 Rushing Yards | 4.5 Yards per Carry | 5 Rushing Touchdowns | 3 Fumbles
Receiving
246 Receiving Yards | 43 Receptions | 5.7 Yards per Catch | 1 Receiving Touchdowns | 0.82 Yards per Route Run
Swift ended the season as running back 20 in PPR scoring, aligning closely with his ADP of 48th overall and 19th among running backs. It seems the consensus on him was fairly accurate.
Recently, in a Superflex, PPR league, I made the move to trade Swift for Najee Harris mid-season, and I still feel confident about that decision.
The Eagles aren’t typically known for splurging on big-money running backs. However, Swift showcased his potential when given opportunities in the offense. Unfortunately, there were instances where the game plan didn’t fully utilize him. The Eagles’ offense experienced a regression from 2022, but I anticipate a bounce-back. While they may not reach the heights of the 2022 season, they are poised for improvement compared to 2023.
Best Landing Spot – Philadelphia Eagles
With a healthy $39,679,657 in cap space, the Eagles are in a position to retain Swift without breaking the bank. Among all the names on this list, I believe Swift would likely come at the lowest price tag. Swift hails from the Philly area, which could play a role in his desire to stay home if the price is right. This combination of factors makes a potential reunion between Swift and the Eagles an intriguing possibility, especially if the price is right for both parties.
Derrick Henry
2023 Fantasy Football Stats
Rushing
1,167 Rushing Yards | 4.2 Yards per Carry | 12 Rushing Touchdowns | 0 Fumbles
Receiving
214 Receiving Yards | 28 Receptions | 7.8 Yards per Catch | 0 Receiving Touchdowns | 1.23 Yards per Route Run
Henry wrapped up the year as running back 8 in PPR scoring, aligning closely with his ADP of 19th overall and 7th among running backs. Throughout the season, Henry’s performances fluctuated, yet he had a notable stretch of three consecutive games with two rushing touchdowns.
It appears that the Titans are prepared to part ways with Henry. Despite their $80,693,205 in cap space, they seem happy with what they have in Spears. It’s likely they will seek a cheaper veteran to complement him for the 2024 season. Despite entering his age-30 season, I believe Henry still has about two more productive fantasy seasons left in him.
PFF graded Henry as the 5th best rusher in the NFL with an impressive 86.8 grade. Remarkably, this was achieved behind one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Best Landing Spot – Baltimore Ravens
I understand the skepticism about the Ravens landing a top running back every year. However, this time feels different. I believe they might finally make it happen with Henry. While it will require some cap maneuvering, Henry might not cost as much as expected. At this stage, he likely wants a chance to win, and the Ravens could offer that opportunity. This year could be the year they secure Henry as the missing piece for a championship run in dynasty leagues.
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