7 Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football for 2022

Every year there are players in fantasy football we stay away from. It could be from the fear of injury, or re-injury, you were burnt by them last year, and sometimes being just a player on a bad team.

Of course, some of these decisions help us in the outcome. Others, well those that we think will bust end up breaking out. I don’t hate players; I hate their ADP (average draft position), and if it’s not falling, they are players I will be avoiding in my drafts altogether. 

Note: For this exercise, I’m defaulting to PPR scoring and using the ADP information helpfully aggregated by our friends at FantasyPros as of July 14th.

Derrick Henry

RB, Tennessee Titans 

ADP: 5, RB4

It’s hard to fade a running back who is going top-five in all fantasy football drafts. I can’t take him that high as I even have him as my RB7. I’ve been high on him over the last couple of years, but now I’m proceeding with caution. Why?

Last season, Derrick Henry was on a tear-through eight games with 219 rushes, 937 yards, and 10 touchdowns along with 18 receptions for another 154 yards. Many would tell you this was awesome, as he finished ranked as an RB2 for missing half the season and that’s just nuts!

What makes me throw caution here is what he did when he got back in the playoffs against the Bengals. The Bengals defense was okay last season, but when you hold Henry to 61 yards on 20 carries (3.1 YPA), you can see the downfall coming. Whether the struggle was due to his foot injury or not, you can be the judge. Either way, it wasn’t promising at all. 

Furthermore, with the Jones fracture, there are screws are holding Henry’s foot together. Hard to take him that early, let alone with the number of touches (1,664) he’s had for his career. He’s also 28 this year and we all know how running backs start to fall off. Even if he’s still a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1, the decline is inevitable. Those are a few of the risks I’m willing to avoid this early to start my draft.

Tyreek Hill

WR, Miami Dolphins 

ADP: 19, WR8

This shouldn’t be news, but even before the trade to Miami, I was lowering Tyreek Hill in my rankings. In 2021, like most years, he finished as a WR1. Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t help him much either.

Overall, Hill’s year-end numbers looked great last year. If you look at his game logs and compare 2020 to 2021, they’re a little eye-popping in a bad way. He was more boom/bust with a Week 4 weekly winner (48+ fantasy points). Outside of that, you were fairly frustrated weekly.

For this reason, I see the boom/ bust continuing, especially with the quarterback play downgrade. I expect more of a bust with occasional booms. I still have him as my WR10 because he still has that week-winning upside, but a mid-second-round pick is a hard one to swallow for me. 

Javonte Williams

RB, Denver Broncos

ADP: 20, RB11

This one I just can’t get behind. If Melvin Gordon didn’t re-sign with Denver, I could justify this pick. Last season, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon split it 50/50 (203 attempts each) as Williams finished with 903 rushing yards along with 43 receptions for 316 yards and seven total touchdowns. As talented as Williams is, Gordon is no slouch and will absolutely be getting his share, even if that split drops more towards 60% for Williams and 40% for Gordon.

To add to this, the Broncos have a massive upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson and a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. If you paid attention to Green Bay last year, where Hackett came from, you noticed how Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon split the backfield. This split could even be a hot-hand approach for all we know.

Given these points, even if the splits go to 60/40 or even 70/30 that’s still a big risk to take around the beginning of the second round (2.03). You’re going to be very dependent on touchdowns. With Russ at the helm, I don’t see it going the running backs way. Give me Deebo Samuel (2.04) or even CeeDee Lamb (2.08) as I see their upside being higher than that of Williams.

Josh Allen

QB, Buffalo Bills 

ADP: 25, QB1

Finishing back-to-back as the QB1 is hard to do, but Josh Allen has done it and deserves the right to be the first quarterback drafted in fantasy. That being said, I won’t be taking him at the end of the second or beginning of the third round of any of my 1QB drafts. 

Bills head coach Sean McDermott stated that he wants Allen to run less. A lot of his success has been coming from his running play as he rushed 122 times for 763 yards and four touchdowns last season. If you take his rushing totals from last season and cut him in half, you’re looking more at the QB5 last season. It’s something to monitor, but either way, I’ve always been one to wait on the quarterback. I liked his ADP more last year when it was at the beginning of the fourth round.

This comes down to your basic “late-round quarterback” draft strategy. You can either pay up for the absolute premium that is Allen, or you can wait. Waiting might mean you grab Tom Brady or Derek Carr, but you’ll be spending a 7th or 10th round pick on someone like this.

DK Metcalf

WR, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 44, WR17

When Russell Wilson was throwing to DK Metcalf, his true deep-threat skills were shown. The deep pass connection was there. Now it’s gone. Going at an ADP of 44, I struggle to hit the draft button on that. First, they lose Wilson, and that’s just the beginning. Going from Wilson to Geno Smith or Drew Lock combination is, well, laughable. 

The Seahawks showed their hand in the NFL Draft by drafting to be more of a running team than a passing team. Hence, that probably is a reason Wilson wanted out before the NFL Draft. To draft Metcalf this high, I feel like it is more of a ceiling play than anything. The hope is that one of the Seattle quarterbacks makes a fool out of us. If Metcalf falls late to round five, I may start to consider it. 

J.K. Dobbins

RB, Baltimore Ravens 

ADP: 49, RB23

Briefly, before the last pre-season, J.K. Dobbins was looking like one of the next best running backs and he was looking like a third-round pick in fantasy drafts. Disaster struck and he tore his ACL before Week 1 of the 2021 season. Currently going with an ADP of 51, this is a hard pill for me to swallow as he will more than likely start training camp on the PUP.

We also can’t forget about Gus Edwards who is also coming off his ACL injury. His ADP of 158 is just insane as he tore his ACL one week later than Dobbins himself. So why such a huge draft discrepancy? Yes, I get it, as far as youth and talent, Dobbins has it but if you look at the age, Edwards is only 27. We’ve seen flashes from both, but Edwards might end up being a massive value.

Another way of looking at this is that Baltimore has Lamar Jackson and wants to go back to more of a running team. Not only will Jackson get him, but the running backs will be rotated in and out and could become headaches in our fantasy lineups.

I do like Dobbins, but I think we’re living too much off of what he did in 2020 when he scored in seven of his final eight games. Many of you will be drafting him as an RB2. I’m more comfortable taking him as my RB3 at best as his boom/bust is just too much for me at his current cost.

Darnell Mooney

WR, Chicago Bears 

ADP: 61, WR25

Many didn’t expect Darnell Mooney to become the wide receiver that he was last year as he finished with 81 receptions on 140 targets, 1,055 yards, and four touchdowns. That was also with Allen Robinson on the field with him. This Bears offense this year is hard to look at. The departure of Robinson, and whether he retired or not Jimmy Graham, puts Mooney in the WR1 seat and it’s not pretty.

The Bears front office this off-season was more focused on helping the defense. They used their first two picks of the draft on defense before selecting Velus Jones Jr. in the 3rd Round. The number of weapons to help Justin Fields out doesn’t look good on paper, and that’s including the recently acquired N’Keal Harry via trade from the Chicago Bears doesn’t boost it up either. I am willing to let Mooney be someone else’s headache with that ADP (64) and give me the likes of Allen Robinson and Michael Thomas who go right after Mooney.

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