For part 3 of this series, I will discuss the AFC and NFC North divisions. If you missed either of the first two, check out my Bold Predictions for the East and the West. Let’s dig right in with the Browns in the AFC North.
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AFC North
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb finishes as a top 5 RB for the first time.
I believe Deshaun Watson will be suspended for the entire season and the Browns will decide to keep Baker Mayfield, #Awkward! The Browns have a top-three offensive line and were top 10 in rushing attempts last year and that was with Chubbmissing three games and Kareem Hunt missing nine games. The Browns will once again lean heavily on the run and Chubb will have a career-high in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. I see a rushing stat line of 310 carries for 1,575 and 16 touchdowns.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Burrow finishes as THE QB1.
This year Joe Burrow is going to come out slinging the ball and have a monster season. Burrow has plenty of weapons with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon. The Bengals have improved their offensive line this offseason so Burrow will have more time to get the ball in the hands of one of his playmakers. Burrow will pass for 5,000+ yards and throw for 40 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris
Harris finishes outside the top 8 at RB.
The Steelers have a terrible offensive line and a new quarterback in Mitch Trubisky. They have an absolutely brutal schedule and will go into the bye week with a record of 3-5. Trubisky will begin the season as the starter but will get replaced by rookie Kenny Pickett after the bye week. They play five of the top 10 defenses and defenses are going to focus on stopping the run and force the Steelers to pass to win. Last season Harris had just 3.9 YPC, which was the lowest for all running backs who had 1,000+ rushing yards. Harris had 74 receptions on a ridiculous 94 targets however I don’t see him repeating that this season without Ben Roethlisberger checking down to him every week.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has his fewest passing yards since becoming a starter.
If J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are healthy at the start of the season the Ravens will be very run-heavy. I see more than 400 combined carries for Dobbins and Edwards and another 160+ for Jackson. Also, Jackson just lost his No. 1 wide receiver, Marquise Brown. Now at wide receiver, Jackson is left with Rashod Batemon and a bunch of guys who in a few years will be working the fryer at Buffalo Wild Wings. Batemon is the only wide receiver on the team with more than 500 career receiving yards. Jackson will finish with fewer than 26 passing touchdowns and 2,750 passing yards.
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NFC North
Detroit Lions: D’Andre Swift
Swift finishes as a top 3 RB in full PPR.
D’Andre Swift is definitely not lacking the talent to finish top three. His biggest issues have been staying healthy and the lack of touchdowns. I have a feeling that changes this season. The Lions have a top 10 offensive line as well as the additions of D.J. Chark and rookie Jameson Willams that defenses will have to focus on. In just 13 games and only 151 carries Swift finished as the RB15. If healthy this year I see him having 200-215 carries and 75-80 receptions for 1,500 total yards and at least 15 touchdowns.
Chicago Bears: Cole Kmet
Kmet finishes as a TE1.
Last season Cole Kmet was tied for 8th in targets among tight ends. However, Kmet failed to get into the end zone. That is not likely to happen again and more likely that he has at least four touchdowns as there were 20 tight ends with at least four touchdowns last year. With Allen Robinson gone there is Darnell Mooney and literally no one else to compete with for targets. With what is likely to be a bottom-five defense the Bears will be passing a lot. Kmet will finish top-five in targets among tight ends this season with at least 110.
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Minnesota Vikings: Dalvin Cook
Cook finishes outside the top 10 at RB.
The biggest issue with Dalvin Cook is that he has never played a full season. He has missed 25 games since he entered the NFL back in 2017 and has a long list of injuries dating back to college. The Vikings have an average offensive line and with a new head coach and they could become more of a passing offense. Also, Alexander Mattison has proven to be productive in Cook’s absence and could be in line for more work as the Vikings attempt to try and keep Cook healthy. Last season Cook averaged fewer than three receptions per game and only six touchdowns. Cook will turn 27 in less than two months and I’m not sure if his body can hold up for an entire season.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Jones and A. J. Dillon
Jones and Dillon will both finish as top 15 RBs.
The Packers lost wide receivers, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown this off-season. That will have an impact on the passing game this year and because of that, I see a lot more work from Jones and Dillon. Adams had 14 targets inside the 10-yard line for 10 receptions and seven touchdowns last season. Now that Adams is gone that should mean more goal-line work for Jones and Dillon. Also, Jones’ receptions have increased every year since entering the league. Jones finished with 52 receptions last year and I believe he will finish with at least 70 receptions this year. I have Jones with around 1,500 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. Dillon should finish with over 1,000 total yards and 8 or more touchdowns.
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