JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to do my own research and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.
His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.
I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.
These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.
(*The number behind the player’s name indicates the average draft position, per Sleeper)
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Denver Broncos
- Javonte Williams (14)
- Melvin Gordon (150)
- Mike Boone (UDFA)
- Damarea Crockett (UDFA)
- Tyreik McAllister (UDFA)
Melvin Gordon
Javonte Williams is a stud, but the hype has gone too far and has caused Melvin Gordon to fade into the abyss. The consensus seems to think Williams will take over the bell-cow role, but what if that doesn’t happen? What if they maintain the same split that they had last season?
In 2021, Gordon was the RB22 in PPR, finishing the season with 1,131 total yards, 10 touchdowns, and averaged 4.52 YPC. Gordon should also be in a more efficient offense in 2022. He has a new, offensive-minded head coach Nathaniel Hackett and received a significant upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson. This new and improved offense should give the Broncos, and Gordon, plenty of scoring opportunities.
Gordon is currently projected to have 855/7 in the 2022 season, which puts him in the RB3 range. However, last season he was top 12 in red-zone touches, and if he can maintain the goal-line duties I think he could be a low-end RB2. At his current rank of RB47 (per KeepTradeCut) where he is ranked lower than James Robinson (who has a torn Achilles), he is an easy target for any contender’s dynasty roster.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (94)
- Ronald Jones (154)
- Isaih Pacheco (224)
- Derrick Gore (UDFA)
- Jerrion Ealy (UDFA)
- Tayon Fleet-Davis (UDFA)
- Jerick McKinnon (UDFA)
Isiah Pacheco
In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs felt they were one position away from a repeat Super Bowl appearance. They opted to draft LSU running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick in the first round. We are going into year three of his rookie deal, and in a running back class full of talent, he has not delivered.
In this off-season, the Chiefs showed they weren’t completely satisfied with Edwards-Helaire so they signed Ronald Jones and Jerick McKinnon to 1-year deals. The Chiefs weren’t done. In the 2022 NFL Draft they selected Isaih Pacheco in the 7th Round and signed both Jerrion Ealy and Tayon Fleet-Davis as UDFAs. The future does not look bright for Edwards-Helaire as clearly, the Chiefs aren’t confident in him.
Pacheco is a running back out of Rutgers University. While Pacheco had offers from other programs he wanted to stay in his home state of New Jersey. Unfortunately, his loyalty did not reward him as he was on a putrid team with one of the worst offensive lines in college football.
However, while his college production might not pop off the stat sheet, his athleticism certainly does. Pacheco has bell-cow size at 5’10 and 216 pounds. Not only does he have the size to be a lead back, but he has elite speed. Pacheco ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine which puts him in the 99th percentile for running backs. His lateral agility and contact balance are incredible to watch. He can change direction on a dime and doesn’t go down with first contact. He runs angry and has quick feet that never stop moving. He didn’t have many opportunities to catch passes while in college, but he looked natural when he did.
Overall, Pacheco is a player who profiles as a potential three-down back. The combination of his athletic profile and the murky backfield in Kansas City makes him a fascinating target in dynasty leagues. Jones is also a solid add at his current price.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Josh Jacobs (65)
- Zamir White (155)
- Kenyan Drake (254)
- Brandon Bolden (UDFA)
- Brittain Brown (UDFA)
- Ameer Abdullah (UDFA)
Kenyan Drake
In 2021, Kenyan Drake signed a two-year deal with the Las Vegas Raiders as a complementary piece to Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs has frequently been dinged up, landing on the injury report 10 different times in three seasons. Jacobs has also averaged two inactive games per season, along with missing snaps in-game due to injury.
Jacobs went on record about Drake joining the Raiders saying, “I tell them, I don’t want this to be a one-man show. My body doesn’t want this to be a one-man show, you feel me? So I tell them, incorporate him.”
We didn’t see much from Drake in 2021, however, he has everything you look for in a lead back. He has the size, game-breaking speed, and is a dynamic pass-catcher.
Drake is a useful fantasy back, even on low volume. In games where Drake had over 35% snap share, he averaged 12 touches, 72.2 yards, and 12.8 PPR fantasy points. In the event that he does end up with a larger role (through injury or trade), we could see high-end RB2 upside.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Austin Ekeler (20)
- Isaiah Spiller (121)
- Joshua Kelley (UDFA)
- Larry Rountree (UDFA)
- Leddie Brown (UDFA)
- Kevin Marks Jr. (UDFA)
Isaiah Spiller
In 2021, Austin Ekeler finished the year with 300 total touches while averaging 193 the three years prior. As much as Ekeler managers would like to believe, he isn’t a 300-touch running back, and the Chargers know that. Gordon left the Chargers in 2019, and every year since his departure the team has attempted to fill his role. In 2020, they drafted Joshua Kelly. In 2021, they drafted Larry Rountree. Now in 2022, they drafted Isaiah Spiller. The team has shown they do not want Ekeler to handle a heavy workload.
Entering the 2022 draft, Spiller was considered a consensus top-three running back. He was highly productive for three seasons at Texas A&M, averaging at least 1,100 yards each season. Spiller has almost everything you look for in a running back prospect. He has bell-cow size, top-tier college production, and is a natural pass-catcher. However, there is one very large red flag in his profile. His athleticism. Spiller elected not to run the 40 at the combine and ran at his pro-day instead. Unfortunately, his pro-day didn’t do him any favors where he ran a 4.64 (20th percentile).
While many are assuming Ekeler maintains his 2021 workload, the Chargers transactions have shown otherwise. Spiller’s upside will likely be limited due to his poor athleticism, but he has the potential to see 200 touches as a rookie. Additionally, Spiller’s size makes him a league-winning handcuff in the event of an Ekeler injury. Spiller is a great addition to any dynasty roster.
