JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to do my own research and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.
His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.
I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.
These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.
(*The number behind the player’s name indicates the average draft position, per Sleeper)
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Baltimore Ravens
- J.K. Dobbins (48)
- Gus Edwards (202)
- Tyler Badie (206)
- Mike Davis (UDFA)
- Justice Hill (UDFA)
- Nate McCrary (UDFA)
- Ricky Person (UDFA)
Tyler Badie
This off-season has been eerily quiet surrounding J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards’ pre-season ACL tears. At this point in the year, we should be hearing about how explosive they are looking and that they are in the best shape of their lives. Instead, we have heard nothing.
Tyler Badie is one of my favorite late-round running backs in this year’s class (along with Kevin Harris). He led the SEC in rushing with 1,604/14 while adding 330/4 through the air. Not only is he a great rusher, but he is also incredibly versatile. At Missouri, he had an 18.1% target share (97th percentile) and took snaps at wide receiver. He also has experience as a kick returner which further demonstrates his explosiveness and ability to make plays in space.
He is slightly undersized at 5’8” 197 lbs, but he has proven that his frame doesn’t affect his durability. In his 2021 season, he didn’t miss a single game and only had 2 fumbles in his collegiate career. He is an exceptionally agile back with top-tier contact balance and burst. Badie is a baddie – go get him.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Joe Mixon (26)
- Chris Evans (264)
- Samaje Perine (278)
- Trayveon Williams (UDFA)
- Elijah Holyfield (UDFA)
- Shermari Jones (UDFA)
Chris Evans
As many NFL teams begin to adopt the running back by committee (RBBC) approach, Joe Mixon remains one of the few “bell-cow” backs in the league, averaging 20.9 touches per game. There is nothing ambiguous about this backfield, which is why we will be targeting his handcuff in case of injury.
Samaje Perine has shown he can be serviceable, but I don’t want serviceable, I want league-winning upside. Chris Evans has a slightly higher ADP than Perine, but Evans has the size and speed to be a Mixon replacement in the event of an injury. I wouldn’t recommend making a strong effort to acquire Evans (unless you are the Mixon manager).
Cleveland Browns
- Nick Chubb (40)
- Kareem Hunt (115)
- Jerome Ford (237)
- D’Ernest Johnson (243)
- Demetric Felton (UDFA)
- John Kelly (UDFA)
Jerome Ford
The AFC North is full of stud running backs and the Browns have two of them. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt make a dynamic duo and run behind one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL. In 2021, Chubb had a 54.7% snap share while Hunt had a 43.7% snap share. Due to both backs being great runners they share the backfield fairly evenly.
In the event of an injury, the Browns would likely keep a split backfield rather than relying on one back to carry the load. Jerome Ford is who I would be targeting and is being valued similarly to D’Ernest Johnson. Ford started his career at the University of Alabama where he was buried on a roster that had Damien Harris, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Brian Robinson. Ford then transferred to the University of Cincinnati in 2020 where he only started once.
In his 2021 season, he was given the lead-back role where he had 1,315 rushing yards, 220 receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns. Ford is a 210-pound back with 4.46 speed to boot. He is more than capable of carrying a heavy workload at the next level and could step in as a solid replacement on a team that loves to run the ball.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
- Najee Harris (10)
- Benny Snell (UDFA)
- Anthony McFarland (UDFA)
- Trey Edmunds (UDFA)
- Mataeo Durant (UDFA)
- Jaylen Warren (UDFA)
Jaylen Warren
Like the rest of this division, there isn’t anything ambiguous about this backfield. Najee Harris is the guy in Pittsburgh and had the second-most touches per game in the NFL last season (22.4). However, if he went down to injury I think Jaylen Warren is an interesting addition.
Warren is a 207-pound running back out of Oklahoma State. He began his collegiate career in junior college where he ran for over 1,000 yards each season. In his junior year (2019), he signed with Utah State, where he rotated off the bench. Warren opted out of the 2020 season and then chose to transfer to Oklahoma State. In his 2021 season, he was selected to be a team captain and rushed for 1,216 yards, 225 receiving yards, and 11 total touchdowns. He is a stout, one-cut runner that is difficult to bring down. He has above-average burst, but he will not run away from defenders.
AFC East
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