JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to create my own process and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.
His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.
I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.
These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.
(*The number behind the player’s name indicates the average draft position, per Sleeper)
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Dallas Cowboys
- Ezekiel Elliott (72)
- Tony Pollard (105)
- Rico Dowdle (UDFA)
- JaQuan Hardy (UDFA)
- Malik Davis (UDFA)
- Aaron Shampklin (UDFA)
Tony Pollard
In 2021, Ezekiel Elliott finished as the RB7, while his backfield teammate, Tony Pollard, finished as the RB28. However, that doesn’t tell the entire story.
The age apex is rapidly approaching for Elliott, and Father Time is undefeated. Elliott will be 27 at the beginning of the 2022 season and has already begun showing a decrease in efficiency. In 2021, he finished the season with 4.1 “true yards per carry” which was 39th for all running backs. Pollard on the other hand was efficient with the opportunity he was given. Pollard finished his 2021 campaign with an impressive 5.1 TYPC (#5). Elliott was given 115 more touches than Pollard, yet Pollard finished with only 233 fewer yards. Pollard averaged only 4 PPR points less per game compared to Elliott and was 21st in fantasy points per opportunity compared to 31st for Elliott.
Had Pollard been given more red zone opportunities there would be significantly more buzz about him going into the off-season. In 2021, Pollard was 37th in red zone opportunities compared to 5th for Elliott which is apparent in their touchdown totals (12 to 2).
Pollard is a great buy at his current price. He is being drafted 33 spots after Elliott (per Sleeper) and is a free agent after this season. Pollard has bell-cow size, and speed, and is a top-tier pass-catcher. Pollard has the potential to be a 1A in a committee in the 2023 season and has minimal wear in his career.
New York Giants
- Saquon Barkley (43)
- Matt Breida (273)
- Gary Brightwell (UDFA)
- Antonio Williams (UDFA)
- Sandro Platzgummer (UDFA)
- Jashaun Corbin (UDFA)
Jashaun Corbin
Saquon Barkley was once considered a “generational” prospect, however, he has fallen down dynasty rankings after battling three-consecutive seasons on and off the injury report. While putting up impressive fantasy numbers in his first two seasons, he has been inefficient as a runner and a pass-catcher. Over his career, he has averaged 3.9 “true yards per carry” which is 39th in the NFL. He is going into his fifth season and will be a free agent in 2023. It seems very likely the Giants will move on from Barkley and pursue a new back in the NFL Draft or through free agency.
Rookie Jashaun Corbin signed with the Giants as an undrafted free agent out of Florida State University. Out of high school, he was a 4-star prospect that had 38 offers from nearly every major university. He originally committed to Florida State but followed head coach Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M. He immediately made an impact as a freshman and finished the season with SEC All-Freshman honors. He started just two games in 2019 before tearing his hamstring which sidelined him for the remainder of the season and hampered his 2020 season. Corbin transferred to Florida State for his 2021 season and had his best year yet.
Corbin has a low center of gravity with terrific vision. He has tremendous contact balance that allows him to create yards after contact. He has short-area bursts and fluid hips that allow him to evade defenders. He excels in the passing game where he had a 10.9% target share at FSU. Not only can he catch passes, but he also showcases his pass protection.
My biggest concerns with Corbin are his speed and size. He is slightly undersized at 202 pounds and would need to put on more weight to be a lead back for a team. While Corbin does have short-area burst, he does lack long speed and has one gear. His speed score is in the 18th percentile for running backs which will likely limit his upside in the pros. However, Corbin should be free in your rookie drafts and is a decent addition to your roster in a deeper dynasty league.
Philidelphia Eagles
- Miles Sanders (103)
- Kenneth Gainwell (170)
- Boston Scott (UDFA)
- Jason Huntley (UDFA)
- Kennedy Brooks (UDFA)
Kenneth Gainwell
Kenneth Gainwell attended school at the University of Memphis, a school known for its productive pass-catching backs in recent years such as Darrell Henderson, Tony Pollard, and Antonio Gibson. He chose to redshirt as a freshman due to being stuck behind these future pros. Once he took the lead back role in 2019 he excelled with 2,069 total yards and 16 total touchdowns. He chose to opt-out of the 2020 season due to COVID and then declared for the NFL draft in 2021.
The Philadelphia Eagles selected Gainwell in the 5th Round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While he may be slightly undersized and inexperienced, he has done a lot with the opportunities he has been given. Gainwell averaged 7.7 yards per reception, 4.2 true yards per carry, and 1.05 fantasy points per opportunity (7th best at the position).
Miles Sanders had a promising rookie campaign and went into his second season with lofty expectations. Unfortunately, he fell flat after having nagging injuries for the majority of the season. While being an efficient back, Sanders has seen questionable usage as well as missing four games a year for the past two seasons. If Sanders is unable to stay healthy, Gainwell has an opportunity to become the 1B in a committee on a team that should be significantly better this season.
Washington Commanders
- Antonio Gibson (45)
- Brian Robinson (162)
- JD McKissic (216)
- Jaret Patterson (278)
- Jonathan Williams (UDFA)
- Reggie Bonnafon (UDFA)
Brian Robinson
Rookie running back Brian Robinson was a 4-Star recruit out of Tuscaloosa, Alabama with offers to Georgia, Auburn, Cincinnati, and Alabama. He ultimately decided to stay home and play for the Crimson Tide where he would join a stacked running back room that included Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and fellow rookie Jerome Ford.
Robinson joined the Tide back in 2017 and waited in the wings for his time to shine. His patience paid off in 2021 when he was given the lead-back role. He hit the ground running and finished the year with 1,633 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Robinson’s performance rewarded him with a Day 2 selection in the 2022 NFL Draft to the Washington Commanders.
Alabama Running Backs
Alabama is an NFL talent factory, and the running back position is no exception. The following is a list of running backs from Alabama selected in the 3rd Round or earlier in the past decade:
- Trent Richardson (2012)
- Eddie Lacy (2013)
- TJ Yeldon (2015)
- Kenyan Drake (2016)
- Derrick Henry (2016)
- Damien Harris (2019)
- Josh Jacobs (2019)
- Najee Harris (2021)
- Brian Robinson (2022)
Each of those players, other than TJ Yeldon, has at least one Top-14 finish in their career.
The Washington Backfield
Robinson is joining 2020 3rd Round pick, Antonio Gibson, in the backfield. Gibson is a dynamic play-maker, but he is one of the worst in the league at pass protection, ball security, and is frequently injured. Going into the 2021 season, Gibson ranked dead last in pass protection, per PFF. Gibson has also struggled with ball security, finishing with the most fumbles in the NFL for a running back with six in 2021. Through two seasons in the NFL, Gibson has landed on the injury report nearly six times per season.
It’s also worth mentioning that in addition to Gibson, JD McKissic decided to return to Washington. That’s despite getting an offer from the Buffalo Bills where he could’ve had a shot to win a Super Bowl in the near future, choosing to stay in Washington says a lot. In 2020 McKissic had 110 targets, the most in the NFL for all running backs. Last year he caught 43 of 53 targets, despite playing in just 11 games.
It is evident the Commanders do not feel confident in Gibson, which is why they brought in Robinson who is excellent in all departments. Throughout his entire time at Alabama, he only had two fumbles. He was also noted as being one of the best pass-blocking backs in the class. Robinson is also very durable, not missing a single game at Alabama.
Robinson is a North-South runner with alpha size. At 6’2 224 pounds with an 85th percentile speed score, he is an imposing force to defenders. Robinson should be the thunder to Gibson’s lightning and offers league-winning upside in the event of an injury.
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