Fantasy football leagues are won not in the first few rounds of your draft, they are won in the later rounds where true value is found. Last season, mid-round picks such as Cooper Kupp and Leonard Fournette proved to be league winners and greatly outproduced their average draft selection. Another option is to look at backfields and ask who can have an Alvin Kamara rookie breakout season? Who can I draft that is going to be the top waiver claim in week one? It is a great feeling knowing you drafted that player in the last round or two of your draft, and now teams are spending their entire budget on that player.
In this article, I used Underdog ADP and went from running backs ranked RB25 or later. These 10 running backs I selected have the chance to either be an RB1 this season, or in given circumstances would have the opportunity to be an RB1, or a top waiver claim.
*ADP and rankings data updated on 7/12/22*
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Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys
Underdog ADP – 82.2, RB27
Tony Pollard is one of the most valuable backup running backs in the NFL right now. Last season Ezekiel Elliott played while injured with a torn ligament in his knee, but still cracked 1,000 yards (1,002 to be exact). Elliott did not look himself last year, but the torn PCL probably played a big part in that. Pollard last season did not play in more than half the team’s snaps in any game, showing the team views Elliott as their top back.
Pollard did see 46 targets and 130 rushing attempts compared to Elliott’s 65 targets and 237 rushing attempts. If Elliott were to miss any games this year, or not produce like he was early on in his career, we could see Pollard take this backfield over, and could easily put up top ten numbers. Pollard is a great pick in the 8th round to 10th round range that could prove to be a league winner.
Rashaad Penny – Seattle Seahawks
Underdog ADP – 102.6, RB33
Rashaad Penny closed last season off strong. Over the final five games, Penny rushed for 692 yards and six touchdowns coming off a torn ACL. He signed a one-year deal in March worth up to $5.75 million. Seattle did draft the talented rookie Kenneth Walker with the 41st overall pick in the NFL Draft, but all indications show that Penny will be given the first opportunity to start in the backfield. Injuries are a problem Penny has had in the past, but Seattle is paying him top-half starter money. While it’s possible Walker could take over this backfield, it seems like Penny will have the first crack at it.
Chris Carson is also a factor, but with his neck injury, it is entirely possible he may not even play this season or again at all.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Underdog ADP – 110.4, RB37
James Cook was drafted by the Buffalo Bills with the 63rd pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Cook enters into one of the best offenses in the league, led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Josh Allen. Cook finds himself with some competition for touches with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in the backfield. Moss figures to be the goal-line back in Buffalo, leaving Singletary and Cook to battle it out for touches out of the backfield. Cook is known for his hands, and skillset in the passing game. Buffalo likes to pass, and this could boost Cook in PPR leagues.
Singletary played great at the end of last season but is not the best receiver. Buffalo drafted Cook to be their pass-catching back. Expect Cook on the field for obvious passing downs. Cook and Singletary probably will split carries, but if Cook proves to be the better back of the two in that aspect, his ceiling could approach the top ten in all formats.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
Underdog ADP – 106.5, RB35
The Miami Dolphins backfield is crowded right now. Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, and Sony Michel. In short, it’s a mess and the roles are uncertain. Anyone drafting a Miami running back right now is taking a risk hoping to hit for upside. New head coach Mike McDaniel will be calling the plays, and Edmonds fits the pass game role for Miami. He is an excellent blocker out of the backfield and is likely going to be the head of this backfield.
Edmonds’ price is going to be suppressed this season with the amount of running backs they have. When we get closer to the opener, there is a chance Gaskin gets cut. Mostert has injury concerns, and Michel would be the sole competitor to Edmonds. Michel likely will settle in as the goal-line back, and Edmonds will play into the passing game with McDaniels leading a similar offense to what broke Elijah Mitchell out last season.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Underdog ADP – 127.7, RB41
The Houston Texans drafted Dameon Pierce with pick 107 in Round 4 of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Jets jumped them in round two for Breece Hall, and the Texans waited to round four to get their running back. Currently, the Texans have Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead as their running backs outside of Pierce. If Pierce can win this job this summer, the volume and opportunity for him to be a workhorse running back are there. Getting a potential workhorse back in the double-digit rounds is excellent value.
The Texans seem to enjoy giving veterans touches, such as David Johnson and Burkhead. Don’t be surprised to see Pierce not carve out a starting role right away, but be patient. He could be a 3rd-string back in Week 1 that rises to the top after a few games or halfway through the season. Houston is a great spot for Pierce, as he should carve a role out by mid-season. Pierce is a solid draft-and-hold option.
Isaiah Spiller, Los Angles Chargers
Underdog ADP – 135.2, RB43
The Chargers selected rookie Isaiah Spiller 123rd overall in Round 4 of the 2022 NFL Draft. Spiller can hold tremendous value this season. He is not going to take away from Austin Ekeler, but Spiller has the opportunity to carve out the backup role to Ekeler. Anyone who drafts Ekeler needs to have shares of Spiller.
Spiller’s competitors are Joshua Kelly and Larry Rountree, neither of which have been able to solidify the backup role in previous years. Ekeler battled injuries last season but played through them. If any injury were to occur to Ekeler, causing him to miss time, Spiller would be a top-tier addition. This is a double-digit round pick that could be a league winner. Spiller in college was excellent in forcing missed tackles. Expect him to play a role in the offense, but not to take away from Austin Ekeler.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
Underdog ADP – 152.5, RB47
The Atlanta Falcons selected Tyler Allgeier with the 151st pick in Round 5 of the NFL Draft. The BYU prospect enters a Falcon backfield headed by Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams. Patterson showed last season he is more of a hybrid player than a typical running back. Allgeier enters this situation with a chance to split with Patterson. The Falcons will have Marcus Mariota or rookie Desmond Ridder running the offense and are expected to be a run-first team with Arthur Smith coaching. Enter Allgeier and the opportunity to take the lead and run away with it.
Williams was signed to a one-year deal under $1 million, and Patterson did not rank high in carries per game. His role is more versatile. Both backs are over 30, and Allgeier presents an immediate day one opportunity. He is physical, and can also catch out of the backfield. Expect him to take goal-line carries, and be the primary back when Patterson is not in the backfield.
Darrel Williams, Arizona Cardinals
Underdog ADP – 169.4, RB52
Darrel Williams was signed by the Cardinals this off-season after he led the Chiefs last season in rushing attempts. He enters an Arizona offense looking to replace the Edmonds role. Edmonds saw 53 targets last season and had 116 rushing attempts. Williams is expected to fill that role with James Conner maintaining his role. If Conner were to miss anytime, Williams’ value would skyrocket. To grab a running back seeing 50 plus receiving targets at the end of drafts is excellent value, and well worth the flier.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Underdog ADP – 177.4, RB54
With Alvin Kamara facing a possible six-game rumored suspension, Mark Ingram would be the lead back in New Orleans for those six weeks. As of now, his value is very low as there is no definite news of a suspension for Kamara, but if it comes in, expect this ADP to skyrocket. Ingram has proven in the past he can be an RB1, and as the workhorse for the possible first six weeks, this is free value right here while there’s no news on Kamara.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Underdog ADP – 206.8, RB63
My final back is one I am very high on as a sleeper candidate. Rookie Zamir White was drafted with pick 122 in the 4th Round of the 2022 NFL Draft. So why is his ADP so low? White is behind Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake on the depth chart. Jacobs’ 5th-year option was not picked up, and Drake is set to be a free agent at the end of the season. From a dynasty perspective, this is a great pickup as he is the only running back projected to be under contract for the 2023 season. As of now, he is third on the depth chart.
Expect Jacobs to run a lot this season. If somehow he were to miss time with an injury, White could slide in and be the RB1 for this offense. White was the only running back signed/drafted by this coaching staff, and I expect them to want to get White on the field throughout the season. I wouldn’t expect him to be an RB1 this year if not for injury, but at his current ADP, he is a late-round dart throw who could easily be an RB1. Something similar to Kamara’s rise in his rookie season.
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