Beer Fueled 2022 Draft Primer: Rookies to Avoid

Beer Fueled 12 Pack: Hopp’s 2022 NFL Draft Primer

The 2022 NFL draft is quickly approaching and like most, we at the Beer Fueled Podcast are waiting to see where players land and what their draft capital and situation will look like. In this Beer Fueled 12 Pack, I’ll talk about six prospects you should hope your team doesn’t draft.

Before getting started, I would like to give a brief overview of how I evaluate prospects. I fancy myself neither a film nor an analytics guy, but a carefully honed hybrid of both applying six years of knowledge and maybe some drunk intuition. Each year I start by evaluating a prospect’s physical makeup and college productivity to form a “Gate 1 Score”. This “Gate 1 Score” takes size, competition, age, single-season productivity, and career productivity into account. If you clear gate one based on a comparison to the last 10 years of NFL rookies, you qualify for a film session, if you don’t it’s off to Gate 2.

Gate 2 scores are applied post-NFL Combine and take into account things like dominator rating, breakout age, size-adjusted speed score, agility score, bust score…etc. Basically, if Player Profiler has it, it’s included in this evaluation. Those numbers are then compared to the same database of NFL players as Gate 1 which determines the Gate 2 score and if you qualify for a film session. Only players who qualify for a film session or mentioned in this article. Gate 3 scores do not apply to this article as those are applied post-draft.

Now, I have mentioned the film session a couple of times, so let’s provide some context to that. When watching the film I take a look at 2-3 games of college tape and rate players on several criteria which vary from position to position. Players are rated 1-5 with five being the highest and the film score is a percentage of total possible points (35 to 45 depending on position). TL;DR: I look at the size, college productivity (single-season and career), and film to decide if I like a dude or not. Now, onto the real reason you’re reading this. 

Matt Corral

QB, Ole Miss – Film Score: 69.71 (6th), Gate 1 Score: 13/21 (3rd — T), Gate 2 Score: 3/7 (4th — T)

Matt Corral is a name a lot of people are high on because of his athletic ability and a seemingly big arm, but a dive into his profile and this is fools gold. Corral missed the success baselines for touchdowns, interceptions, interception percentage, and the single-season cut-off marks for touchdown percentage and passing yards.

On film, the talent people like is there, but accuracy issues are also made pretty clear. He forgets he has an intermediate game going big or checking down, and he tends to stare guys down and wait too long for the big play to develop. While it’s a thin quarterback class and he is likely to get capital, Corral has a long road ahead to find NFL success and the floor could basically drop out at any point. 

Isaiah Spiller

RB, Texas A&M – Film Score: 65.33 (14th), Gate 1 Score: 11/18 (3rd — T) Gate 2 Score: 1/6 (Last)

Isaiah Spiller caught fire entering the draft season after putting up big numbers for his career and decent numbers in his final season. That is about where the good news ends as he tanked the Combine. His burst score of 113.1 is bad enough to land him amongst the likes of Isaiah Peed, Montee Ball, and Theo Riddick. His speed score of 89.7 lands him below guys like Ameer Abdullah and Joseph Randle. While guys who tested bad have been successful, it’s not often you find a Le’Veon Bell type of outlier.

On film, people seemed to fall in love with Spiller’s patience, but I made that mistake with Royce Freeman and I’m not doing it again. Where you might see patience, I see someone who is indecisive and lacks the explosiveness to go when his mind is made up. He is also slow to change direction. Spiller does excel as a receiver and a blocker which could make him a big third-down back similar to what Samaje Perine did for the Bengals this past year, but that’s not the type of running back you want your team to draft. Let someone else spend the high draft capital in your rookie drafts on him. 

Zamir White

RB, Georgia – Film Score: 60.22 (15th), Gate 1 Score: 4/18 (11th), Gate 2 Score: 3/6 (4th — T)

Zamir White is the guy I have decided I’m okay with possibly being wrong about. Personally, I see a worse Sony Michel complete with knee issues. White never managed to put up better than middle of the pack numbers splitting time with James Cook at Georgia, and when compared with others in this draft class that have the same number of carries, he also lands middle of the pack.

On film, White is lacking as a receiver, doesn’t show much burst or acceleration, and doesn’t show much as a blocker which will hurt his ability to get on the field. He does show good traits as a runner which worked well with Cook in College, but in the NFL I don’t think that will be enough to make him more than just a guy. Maybe his landing spot will change my opinion, but heading in, it’s not high. 

Justyn Ross

WR, Clemson – Film Score: 63.71 (12th — T), Gate 1 Score: 13/14 (2nd — T), Gate 2 Score: 3/6 (3rd — T)

Justyn Ross is a Devy darling that a lot of people are playing the “What if?” game with. His college productivity checks boxes despite having no real blow-up year, and his workout metrics are subpar. For me, this is a guy my model doesn’t hate because he did just enough, but I can’t bring myself to be high on him because of the number of boxes he just barely checked.

His lack of athleticism at the combine shows on his film and his injury history could present problems for him in the future. That being said, he might be the least deserving of the “Hope your team doesn’t touch him” distinction. He did have some things to like with his film including his ability to adjust to the ball and create separation. His hands were good and he slid between the slot and outside. Ross is another guy I might change my mind depending on his landing spot. However, the red flags are too great for me to love him pre-draft.

David Bell

WR, Purdue – Film Score: 49.42 (Last), Gate 1 Score: 13/14 (2nd –T), Gate 2 Score: 3/6 (Tied 3rd)

David Bell had probably the worst pre-draft process ever. His Combine was abysmal, his Pro Day was worse and any goodwill his college productivity created is basically gone. On film, he looks absolutely sloth-like and struggles with defenders playing through his body. On paper, the only receiver with athletic numbers this bad to do anything was Anquan Boldin.  There is no way around it, Bell just isn’t athletic enough and really isn’t much more than a big body that isn’t quite big enough to move to tight end.

Tyquan Thorton

WR, Baylor – Film Score: 60.28 (15th), Gate 1 Score: 12/14 (3rd — T), Gate 2 Score: 5/6 (2nd — T)

I really wanted to like Tyquan Thornton after monster productivity and a very good Combine performance. He was a guy who appeared to check boxes that no one was discussing. Then I turned the film on and realized why no one was really talking about it. The 4.2 speed doesn’t show on film at all and there is no quick twitch. Additionally, he can beat zone but struggles against man coverage and he just doesn’t look like more than a role player. Someone will fall in love with his speed and draft him high, but the skill set doesn’t match the athletic numbers. Thorton is essentially a diet Mecole Hardman or perhaps worse…John Ross.

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