Biggest Rookie Risers and Fallers

The 2022 NFL Draft is less than a month away and over at the Faceoff Sports Network, we have been running rookie mock drafts. We are through 60 drafts between 1QB and 2QB/SF and more than 90 rookies have been selected. The combine has shaken up a few things along with many drafters doing research on players and moving them up and down based on what they have seen.

I’m going to hit on some of the biggest risers and fallers from February compared to March. Every player has risen or fallen in some kind of way.  Some went up in one type of draft but dropped in another. Here, we are going to look at the ones who made the biggest gains and biggest drops as a single player.

Risers

Hassan Haskins, RB, Michigan: N/A in 1QB. Up 6 spots in 2QB/SF

When I originally started doing mock drafts, I was running three-round 1QB drafts forcing managers to get their guys, hence the reasoning behind Haskins having no ADP in 1QB leagues till late February. Once I started running 2QB/SF, I was going with four-round drafts.

Hassan Haskins was starting as a mid to late fourth-round pick and is creeping up now into the early fourth. Why the massive jump? He has the size that NFL teams love (6’2″, 228-pounds) which could be placed at the goal line. Haskins had 33 carries inside the five for Michigan in 2021, converting 16 of those carries for touchdowns. A true threat to a backfield, and a sleeper to keep your eye on going into draft weekend.

Zamir White, RB, Georgia: Up 5.86 spots in 1QB. Up 4.63 spots in 2QB/SF

If you are more of an analytical type of person, you would think with the low numbers that Zamir White has put up would be a cause for a red flag, making me think that what we knew before the NFL combine was just stats. After the combine and looking at more game tapes, listening to other analyses, I see why White is moving up rookie draft boards, especially after his plus performance at the combine. He is the biggest riser in both types of drafts and I can see why. He has been moving from a third-round pick up into the second round now.

Christian Watson, WR, NDSU: Up 5.5 spots in 1QB. Up 2.71 spots in 2QB/SF

Jaw. Dropped. This is the best way I can explain Christian Watson. Many football fans are always watching the combine and if they didn’t know who Christian Watson was, well, they do now. The 6-4, 210-pound receiver ran a blazing 4.36 40-yard dash. Not only did that catch fantasy managers’ eyes, but also his 11-foot, 4-inch broad jump, and a 38.5-inch vertical jump.

Next-Gen Stats graded Watson with a max-99 athleticism score for his combine performance. The last wide receiver to receive such a high grade like this was Calvin Johnson. Dynasty managers are looking to get him in the second rounds in drafts, and based on where he lands in the NFL, he could be a first-round rookie pick.

Fallers

The Quarterbacks: Down 3 spots in 1QB. Down 2.6 spots in 2QB/SF

The quarterback position has been the biggest question mark around the fantasy football community for the 2022 rookies. Many have said they would rather not take any of them and wait until next year’s “loaded” class. I don’t know if you have been paying attention to what the cost of 2023 first is but it’s nuts!

Outside of Malik Willis (+1.21,+.052) who has been moving up, especially after his pro-day, the rest of the quarterbacks on the other hand have not. I put in the likes of Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and, Carson Strong in this exercise as they have been all dropping ever so slightly.

One name that brought this number down was the only quarterback and player in general to have the biggest drop in 2QB/SF leagues. Bailey Zappe saw his ADP drop a significant 7.86 slots pushing him into the late fourth, to undrafted at all. We’ve seen Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, and Matt Corral have their pro-days already and I’m sure as April goes on with the other pro-days and news, these numbers on all of these players will change.

Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame: Down 2.87 spots in 1QB. Down 6.08 spots in 2QB/SF

A player who was going as a late first and early second in both formats has been falling into the late second round and now even the third in both formats. What the hell happened? During the NFL Combine, Williams completed the 40-yard dash in an eye-opening 4.65 seconds. He made up for it on his pro-day improving his 40-yard dash time to 4.54 seconds.

I laugh at this because Williams was never known for his speed. He’s a true three-down running back who can make plays in the run game, and catch the ball out of the backfield hence his 42 receptions in 2021 and 35 in 2020. I like seeing Williams fall for my sake in rookie drafts as I’ll have a better chance of getting him. This guy will be a steal if he stays where he is currently being drafted.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Kentucky: Down 5.08 spots in 1QB. Down 5.59 spots in 2QB/SF

When you measure in three inches below your prior-reported height, this makes sense. Being 5’8 is extremely small for any NFL player and this part of him dropping in rookie drafts may follow suit in the NFL Draft. Going from a mid to late second-round pick to somewhere in the third is where he might be staying going forward, if not dropping further.

Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri: Down 5.83 spots in 1QB. Down 3.59 spots in 2QB/SF

This one blows my mind as Tyler Badie has fallen to a late 2nd to a mid-third in 1QB but why? We all knew he was an undersized back that’s crazy fast and explosive so why is he dropping? Is it the 5’8  and being below 200 pounds? In my eyes yes, because running backs that size, usually go later in drafts to not drafted at all. He won’t ever be a true starter in the NFL, but a complementary back is how we should view him.

Keaontay Ingram, RB, USC: Down 6.64 Spots in 1QB. Down 6.21 spots in 2QB/SF

In the 1QB drafts run, many were reaching for Ingram in the third round. Once I added an additional round, Ingram fell into the fourth round giving a better perspective of where he could be landing.

In 2QB, he went from being picked on average at 38 in February to about 45th overall. Is it that the fourth-year back did meh on a mediocre offense at USC? I like him as a player, but going where he is going now makes sense as he is looking to be more of a depth piece than anything.

Overall, many players have risen and fallen, and the more drafts we do, the more movement we see. Kenneth Walker is starting to move up and Isaiah Spiller is dropping, but they have switched as the #2 and #3 running backs are being drafted. Others I can see swaying this month with Pro-days.

Interested in joining me in mock drafts? DM me on Twitter to get involved! I run the drafts over on Sleeper! Friend me over there at RyanMinerFFB and come draft with us!

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