For fantasy football managers, every season particular players stand out as ADP values while others seem like glaring traps waiting to leave a gaping black hole in your starting lineup. It’s going to be my mission in this series to highlight both of those types of players.
Additionally, that includes players of value and players to avoid. I’m going to attempt to avoid personal biases and stick to the numbers. Here, I’ll break down how second-year wide receiver Christian Watson, might be someone to avoid based on our Consistency Score.
Rookie Campaign
The Good
In his rookie year, Watson tallied 691 total yards and 9 total touchdowns in only 14 games. His Targets-per-Route Run (TpRR%) percentage was 24.38% and ranked 14th among all eligible receivers. And in 0.5-PPR scoring, Watson was the 37th receiver in total fantasy points scored (129.5) and 35th in points per game (10). Additionally, among all receivers who played in four or more games and had at least 12 targets (three per game), his 9.3 yards per target ranked 31st.
However, he finished inside the Top-10 wide receivers in Weeks 10 through 13 propelling many fantasy rosters into the fantasy football playoffs.
The Bad
Let’s first address the elephant in the room. All of the above-mentioned was with future hall-of-famer Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Watson now starts his sophomore season with an inexperienced Jordan Love coming in to call plays. That alone stands to reason that Watson’s stats are going to take a step back.
But more importantly, even those facts listed above, don’t really tell the true picture of Watson’s season. Watson’s Consistency Score (CS) of only 3.14 ranks just 44th among receivers and 87th among non-quarterbacks. That’s well below where he finished in total points or points per game, and it’s ridiculously lower than his ADP. Right now, he’s currently WR19 according to the latest Underdog ADP.
Looking at how he racked up those totals and we get an idea of where the discrepancy stems from.
In Weeks 10 through 13, mentioned above, Watson scored 91.7 fantasy points. In all other games combined, he scored only 37.8. In those four weeks, he scored 70.81% of his seasonal total in terms of fantasy points. This is why, despite appearing so high in season-long stats, he was only a Top-12 receiver in 23.53% of games and aside from those was never in the Top-24 or Top-36 even.
The Ugly
Even numbers like “Points per Game” are often skewed by large outliers, like 70%+ of fantasy production in only four games. This makes Watson a perfect example of why Median Points are a much better indicator of one’s season.
Watson’s median fantasy points in 2022 was a measly 6.6 in 0.5-PPR scoring.
And even his impressive TpRR% might be misleading. He had four games, weeks 2, 4, 10, and 16, with 38% or higher TpRR%.
In contrast, Tyreek Hill, the leader in TpRR%, has a TpRR% of only 31.89%.
Watson had just as many games, four, with 20% or lower TpRR%. All of this explains his weak Consistency Score and the vast chasm between his CS ranking and his end-of-year rankings.
2023 Strength of Schedule
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the upcoming Green Bay Packers Strength of Schedule for Wide Receivers ranks 27th according to D-PAC. They don’t have a single matchup in 2023 against a team that ranked as a Top-10 matchup for receivers in 2022. A lot can change for a team’s defense in the offseason, but that still doesn’t bode well.
Furthermore, when you factor in the departure of Rodgers, I just can’t imagine drafting Watson where he is going right now. At his current ADP, he needs to not only reproduce last year but outproduce what he did with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
Perhaps closer to August, “Hard Knocks” hype and preseason play will vault some other receivers ahead of him. However, Watson just seems like a trap, waiting to enclose around whoever is naive enough to draft him thinking he can come close to his 2022 production.
Did you like this piece? Disagree? Drop me a line and let me know @DumpsterDiveFF and go ahead and follow for more fantasy football nuggets & all things Consistency Score related! If you’re a fantasy football content creator, please take advantage of the Consistency Score and use it in your content!
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