Dynasty Buys, Sells, And Holds: Preseason Week 1

Finally, NFL Football is back, and the dust is settling on the first week of the NFL preseason. Needless to say, the excitement is palpable and it’s nearly impossible not to be swept away by the anticipation of what’s to come for fantasy football.

The games from this past week have not only entertained but also offered a sneak peek into the potential future stars and unexpected gems who could significantly influence the landscape of dynasty fantasy football. With rookies making their long-awaited debuts and established players returning to the field, the outlooks for our fantasy squads are starting to take shape.

Nonetheless, very little weight should be placed on these brief showings. As with all things, we should not overreact to such a small sample. Players don’t develop in a linear manner and go through many ups and downs throughout their career as pros. On that note, let’s get into the latest updates around the NFL and dynasty fantasy football implications.

C.J. Stroud

‘CJ Stroud and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day’

I’m going to be honest here. C.J. Stroud’s first time suiting up for live NFL action was not pretty. He takes some blame, but facing Bill Belichick’s defensive scheme is challenging for anyone, much less a rookie. Additionally, he faced pressure on 60% of his drop-backs, clearly impacting his performance and making him uncomfortable. In just two series, he went two-for-four, throwing for 13 yards with an interception.

Ultimately, the compounding pressure built upon Stroud came to a head with his fourth and final pass of the night. A pass that was intercepted by veteran defensive back Jalen Mills.

Originally thought this might have been qtrs on the broadcast, but from the excellent reporting of @tkyles39 and the all-22, it is indeed Cover-1 Dog.

Because Mills' man was in the backfield in long yardage situation, he just backed off and freelanced. Stroud will learn from it. pic.twitter.com/YWbU43vFEX

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) August 11, 2023

My Verdict: Hold

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell

‘Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, is Swell’

Regardless of where this ride may end, it sure led off with a bang. Tank Dell caught five of eight targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in the preseason opener, leading the Texans in receiving. He made a juggling touchdown catch at the end of the first half shortly after a 24-yard gain from the slot.

Furthermore, with a relatively fluid receiving corps behind Nico Collins and Robert Woods, Dell has a growing chance to pace them in targets. While nothing is certain yet, the future appears bright. In dynasty leagues, I’d be looking to get out for a random future 2nd if possible, otherwise, he’s a wait-and-see type of asset.

My Verdict: Hold

Roschon Johnson

RoJo, a nickname affectionately given to now known bust Ronald Jones, now has a new face. Of course, it’s everyone’s favorite 2023 rookie draft sleeper, Roschon Johnson. However, his collegiate career was not lit up in marquee lights. No. That was his teammate, Bijan Robinson, maybe you’ve heard of the guy?

Johnson enters a room occupied by two other veterans who have a valid case for their continued usage. Those two are the shifty Khalil Herbert and the prototypical grinder D’Onta Foreman. What Johnson offers is a combination of those skill sets along with third down utility as a pass protector, using his size and savvy to pick up blitzes, or as a pass catcher, using his reliable mitts to bring in anything thrown in his vicinity.

I foresee this backfield starting off muddied, with Herbert taking the high-value touches while Johnson catches up to speed with week-to-week life as a pro. However, later on in the season, I see the two creating a 1a/1b backfield, working hand in hand, each with distinct roles. Herbert excels on early downs and between the 20s. Meanwhile, Johnson shines through on 3rd downs and in short-yardage situations. It’s anticipated that both will have opportunities at the goal line.

My Verdict: Buy within reason, before the market overcorrects

DJ Moore and Elijah Moore

While Justin Fields’ passing is still in question, the elite playmaking ability of DJ Moore should not be. On a routine screen pass, Fields misplaced the layup pass. However, Moore, the recipient of the pass, made chicken salad out of, well, you know, running 62 yards downfield into the end zone. This electric pair is looking to enter the same conversation as the previous pairings of Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs and Jalen Hurts/AJ Brown

Disgruntled after an unremarkable second season,  Elijah Moore was acquired by the Cleveland Browns in the offseason via trade with the New York Jets. Needless to say, he let his presence be felt on the opening drive. The most exciting moment came on an 18-yard rush out of the backfield.

Notably, that was not his only snap lined up next to the quarterback. He made an admirable attempt at pass protection shortly after on a screen play. Though he will not best Amari Cooper as the top dog, I think he will almost certainly be second in line for targets. Unfortunately, Moore left Friday’s contest with a rib injury, initial x-rays were negative, however, so crisis has been averted.

Overall, with their dynamic nature and the steps of improvement, both offenses look to take, there is a lot to be excited about here. I wouldn’t sell either for less than a late first-round rookie pick.

My Verdict: Cautiously Buy

Trey Lance

‘Trey Area has been shut down due to code violations’

It’s no secret on just how thin of a layer of ice third-year quarterback Trey Lance is on. After getting up shown by Brock Purdy last year, many are wondering if he’ll start a game for the 49ers again. With his first chance to change the tune of public discourse, his performance fell flat.

Lance played the entire first half, throwing the ball 15 times with ten completions for 112 yards and a touchdown. The stat sheet may not collaborate with what I’m saying, but your eyes will. His sole touchdown was also his worst decision of the day. However, fate favored the young man, and the would-be intercepting safety bobbled the ball right into the hands of nearby tight end Ross Dwelley, who secured it in the endzone for a score.

Not all shown from Lance was negative though, as he showed off his ability to maneuver pressure. Additionally, he was pressured on 50% of his drop-backs. However, he made a very impressive jump pass on a scramble out to the right. In the end, the play worked by Lance discovering a passing lane and quickly exploiting it for a first down.

Back to the bad. On his final drive of the day, he nearly threw a second pick. He had a clear pre-snap view of the linebacker, rookie Amari Burney, yet seemed to lose object permanence when going through his reads post-snap, leading the ball into his zone with the intent of hitting the hitch route.

Raiders rookie Amari Burney showing off his coverage chops. Reads Trey Lance and puts himself in position to nearly haul in an INT.

Burney, a sixth-round pick out of Florida, has had a really nice NFL debut today. Had a sack earlier. pic.twitter.com/r5hWqQrwrC

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) August 13, 2023

It’s too late to sell Lance shares the market is all but dried up. And, to those who are looking to buy, be wary of stingy managers clinging to their prior evaluations or false hope.

My Verdict: Hold

Alvin Kamara

‘Alvin Kamara, the forgotten bell-cow?’

Alvin Kamara has been on a course matching that of his team, the New Orleans Saints. That is a steady decline towards mediocrity since the retirement of Drew Brees. There are several reasons why this former league winner has been falling down draft boards this year. These reasons range from his most recent season yielding all-time lows in many key marks, to an alleged assault charge that earned him a suspension for the first three games of the 2023 season.

However, he isn’t ready to go gently into that good night. In fact, on Sunday afternoon, he looked ready to rage against the dying of the light.

Kamara took the majority of the snaps with the starters, occasionally spelled by free agent acquisition Jamaal Williams. Of the 80 yards gained on the opening drive, Kamara accounted for 35 of them, 21 of those yards coming to him through the air.

In the grand scheme of things, the first three weeks of the season do not matter when we are playing for the last three. While we can’t just assume that he will get more goal line work this season, the bad taste of poor touchdown luck is already baked into his price.

Whether you’re a contender looking for that perfect RB2 for your squad, or a rebuilder looking to accumulate some in-season value, I think Kamara is a perfect trade target. Ideally, you’d stay within a production tier for this season while netting draft capital. An example of this would be to trade James Cook for Kamara and a future second.

My Verdict: Buy

Puka Nacua

‘The Nacua kid on the block’

Now, when I try to project Puka Nacua’s skillset to the NFL, and his new team the Los Angeles Rams, what I see him as is a watered-down rendition of Robert Woods. That is, a relatively limited athlete whose path to success lies in his ability to get the little things right. Although one of his three catches concluded with a touchdown, I wouldn’t expect this trend to follow through to the regular season.

Furthermore, lest we forget the mistakes of yesteryear, we should not forget the rookie who pulled the wool over our eyes this time last year, for the same team no less. Lance McCutcheon is who I’m referring to. In the 2022 preseason, he finished eighth in the NFL with ten receptions, he lead the league with 183 yards and tied for first in touchdown catches with two.

Before you tell me that Van Jefferson’s contract is up at the end of the year, I know. I do think the Rams would be smart to retain him on a second contract. Though if he does make an exodus, they will surely use their draft capital and cap space to bring in more competition to this receiving room.

I will leave you all with one final warning. As of me writing this article, there are four wide receivers ranked in the top 50 at the position on Keep Trade Cut that were drafted on day three of the NFL draft. Those four are Amon Ra St. Brown (WR7), Tyreek Hill (WR10), Stefon Diggs (WR15), and Gabe Davis (WR47). No offense to Nacua, I’m simply not interested.

My Verdict: Sell for any rookie pick

Tank Bigsby

‘We’re talking about a Tank again’

Tank Bigsby of the Jacksonville Jaguars, to be precise. Although many dynasty managers wrote him off just another “devy darling” and assumed that he would be firmly behind Travis Etienne back in draft season, a steady drum beat has begun to crescendo out of training camp in Duvall County.

This drum beat reached its highest decibel level yet on Saturday night when he ran nine times for 52 yards. While that stat line isn’t too impressive on the surface, there’s one minor detail that makes it significant. Bigsby is the lone rookie running back who saw his first preseason snap before the team’s presumed starter saw his last. While it’s not implying that he will immediately secure the starting position, the fact that Tank got snaps with the starters this early is a promising sign.

Assuming your league mates haven’t been living under a rock, they’ve all seen the reports. If he is not on your roster already, you might have a hard time changing that. Additionally, if you’re like me and you drafted him near the middle of the second round or later of your dynasty rookie drafts, congratulations to us both.

My Verdict: Hold

Detroit Lions

‘Motor City Must-Haves’

Alright, this one is for my fellow IDP (Individual Defensive Player) managers.

At long last, Detroit Lions defensive back Brian Branch made his debut under the Friday night lights on Ford Field. The Lions rookie had a welcome to the NFL moment on Friday night. Rather, he delivered a welcome back to the NFL moment to 11-year pro Cole Beasley. To those of you who watched him in college, this should come as no surprise. He missed a remarkably low three percent of his attempted tackles playing for Alabama. Speaking of tackles, fellow rookie Jack Campbell racked up several tackles of his own from the linebacker position. Both players are set to be high-floor starters in their inaugural year in the league.

My Verdict: Buy, while you still can

Backups on the Up and Up

Several running backs are making a case to their teams to take a larger slice of the pie this season. Why don’t we brush up on a few?

Making the most of an extended opportunity on Thursday night, Vikings running back Ty Chandler showcased his skillset. Chandler had a significant role in the first half. His performance underscored his fit in Kevin O’Connell’s zone run scheme by being both decisive and quick on his feet. He should be considered as the RB2 behind Alexander Mattison in this offense going forward.

Let’s take this discussion down to Dallas. The presumed RB2 for the Cowboys has been 2022 UDFA Malik Davis, though that may be less solid of a conclusion than we previously thought. Deuce Vaughn’s NFL potential is evident. Vaughn, with eight carries, put up 50 yards, featuring a fourth-quarter four-yard touchdown run.

Additionally, Elijah Dotson, a UDFA running back for the Chargers made a statement on Saturday with two touchdown runs. He totaled six carries for 92 yards on top of that. Though he has a ways to go toward making the roster, I would go ahead and claim him off of waivers in deeper leagues. We just have another Zonovan Knight on our hands.

These types of players are my favorites in dynasty leagues. That being the free cost of entry running backs who have the potential for opportunity should things change in their respective backfields. And as we all know, they get shaken up all of the time.

My Verdict: Trade throw-in Buy

Kenny Pickett and George Pickens

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting offense featured in just a single series on Friday night. Kenny Pickett stood out during his brief appearance. He completed six of seven passes, totaling 70 yards and a touchdown. Notably, his only incomplete pass was deliberately thrown away to evade a sack. Pickett found Pickens on a crucial third down, and Pickens showcased his skills with a 33-yard touchdown. On that play, he eluded two tacklers on his way to the end zone. This happened in a preseason match against the Tampa Bay second-stringers, yet it’s already fueling the hype surrounding the duo’s sophomore season.

I’ll be honest, I wasn’t the biggest fan of Pickens’ situation and what he showed as a fantasy producer his rookie year. In fact, I shipped off my only dynasty share of Pickens back in June in a package for Amon-Ra St. Brown. While I don’t think that this trade will come back to haunt me, it will be bittersweet watching Pickens on another roster.

My Verdict: Hold, unless an opportunity for a massive tier-up presents itself

As we begin to navigate this new season, remember that the choices you make now can shape your team’s future. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or hold players, the preseason’s early glimpses can guide your decisions. Keep your eyes peeled for upcoming articles where I’ll continue to share my latest verdicts on the unfolding headlines. Stay tuned for more actionable advice to help you make the most informed moves for your dynasty roster.

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