NFL free agency is one of the most impactful events on a player’s dynasty fantasy football value. Player movement and team changes can significantly affect each player’s value. Good or bad, a ton of these players are rising and falling in dynasty value due to different free agency signings.

It’s only been over a week into the offseason, and we already have some massive shakeups throughout the NFL. With that said, it’s time to break down the biggest risers and fallers for your fantasy football and dynasty football teams, so far due to free agency. 

Risers for Fantasy Football

Darren Waller

Since his 2019 breakout, Darren Waller has always been one of the most prominent tight ends in the league. Unfortunately, Waller missed seven games in 2021 and 12 games in 2022. On top of this, he is 30 years old, which is a big knock on his dynasty value. However, if he stays healthy, he can be a productive tight end again for the next few years. 

Previously playing for the Las Vegas Raiders, Waller was seen as a middle-of-the-road tight end. Waller already has these red flags working against him as well as having to fight for targets in this mediocre offense. 

All this changed when Waller was traded to the New York Giants for the 100th overall pick (third round). This is a fantastic landing spot for Waller, making him very relevant for this upcoming season. The Giants are still struggling at receiver despite having Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton under contract.

Keep in mind After giving Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million contract with $104 million guaranteed. It’s evident that the Giants want to build around him. With Waller being Jones’s number one target and safety blanket, this trade could benefit both of them immensely.

According to Keep Trade Cut (KTC), Waller is the tight end 10 which is fair value. Right now, Waller is behind Michael Mayer and above David Njoku, which is exactly where I would have him from a value perspective. Waller is a buy if you need a tight end, as he could finish around the TE 8 range for the next few years.

Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki was one of the player’s stocks I thought rose the most after his signing with the New England Patriots. While the Patriots don’t have nearly as much passing volume as the Dolphins, Gesicki will be utilized more in New England. Overall, he has been a solid tight end averaging 9.6 PPG from 2019-2021.

This is an excellent fit, as the Patriots need a talented receiver who is good in the red zone for Mac Jones. Playing with the Dolphins, Gesicki was never properly used, and despite playing in 17 games last season, he only officially started in one.

However, the Patriots desperately need offensive weapons. This upcoming season, Gesicki will likely be the number two target behind another new Patriot, JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots run two tight end sets quite often which is good for Gesicki. This way, he will be used out wide as a receiver which significantly helps his value.

At the moment, Gesicki is the tight end 20, but I have him as high as tight end 13 in my dynasty rankings. Additionally, Gesicki is only 27, which makes him even more valuable, and I would buy him for this price everywhere I can. 

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders is a running back I’ve never been particularly high on. However, signing with the Carolina Panthers Is a nice boost to his long-term value. There’s a lot to like about Sanders despite the fact that he’s leaving one of the best offensive lines in the league. 

For one, he will be the workhouse back and can now operate at the goal line without getting his touchdowns stolen from him. Another reason is that the Panthers’ offense is horrible, so Sanders should see a fantastic amount of volume.

One of the reasons you should be most excited about this move is the possible reemergence of Sanders’s passing volume. Sanders caught 50 balls on 63 targets in his rookie year. Unfortunately, these numbers went down every season since. This is partly due to the offense and Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability. In both of his best passing-catching seasons, Duce Staley was his coach. Now with the Panthers, Staley will be coaching Sanders once again. 

Sanders is properly valued as the running back 20 on KTC. That’s above rookie Zach Charbonnet and below veteran Derrick Henry. This value is fair, and I would buy or sell Sanders based on your current team build. 

Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen was a player who was slowly losing more and more value this past season. After a disappointing 2022 season where Thielen averaged a meager 10.6 PPG, his value has plummeted. At 33 years old, the age cliff has begun to catch up to Thielen. 

Nevertheless, Thielen’s value has been saved by a three-year deal worth up to 25 million dollars with the Carolina Panthers. This gives Thielen a role in the Panthers’ offense up until 2025, which is his first potential out. Due to how bad this Panthers offense is, at the moment, Thielen is the WR1 on the team without DJ Moore.

This gives Thielen a safe floor, and he will average roughly 10 points per game. After this trade, Thielen is valued as the wide receiver 81, above Darius Slayton, and below Mecole Hardman. 

It’s hard to value a player who is 33 years old very high, so you should buy or hold Thielen at his current price in dynasty leagues. This isn’t one of the biggest moves this offseason, but it has allowed Thielen to be a nice depth piece for your dynasty rosters. Overall, he’ll be someone who can help you win now.

Fallers for Fantasy Football

Dalton Schultz

For Dalton Schultz, any landing spot besides the Dallas Cowboys is a downgrade. This is because the Cowboys have one of the most tight end-friendly schemes in the NFL, which can help elevate a player. There’s a real chance Schultz was never that good and was instead carried by his system. This can be backed up historically as most tight ends who leave their team drop in value.

Conversely, signing a one-year deal worth up to $9 million dollars with the Houston Texans could limit the damage. This Texans offense is horrible, but they can bring in CJ Stroud or Bryce Young in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft. There’s a possibility that Schultz is used very often as a safety blanket for his rookie quarterback, which would keep him fantasy relevant. 

After this trade, Schultz has dropped to the TE12 below David Njoku and above Greg Dulcich. This is still too high for my liking as I see this as Schultz’s ceiling in his new situation, and I would sell him at this price. 

D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift is a player that has been falling ever since his injury this year. In 2022 Swift started in 8 games and put up 13.6 PPG. Part of the reason why Swift underperformed was the emergence of Jamaal Williams, who scored 17 touchdowns.

After Williams left for the Saints, his role was filled by David Montgomery. This is even worse for Swift as Montgomery is even more talented and just signed a three-year deal worth $18 million dollars. 

Even though Dan Campbell has said he plans to utilize him, it’s hard to believe Montgomery won’t significantly hurt Swift’s volume. However, if Swift is still a running back getting 12-15 touches a game, he can still be a good fantasy player and a solid dynasty asset. 

Unfortunately, his upside is extremely capped because he won’t see many red-zone touches. On top of this, Montgomery will see much more volume than Williams, which will hurt Swift a ton.  

To put Swift’s ranking into some context, he is ranked above J.K. Dobbins and below Dameon Pierce. Overall, Swift has to overcome many obstacles, and returning to his former fantasy football glory days will be tough. 

Chris Godwin

After Tom Brady’s retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been in dire need of a quarterback. Going out and signing Baker Mayfield wasn’t the worst possible outcome, but it’s far from ideal. To be fair to Mayfield, Chris Godwin’s value would have dropped no matter who the Buccaneers brought in. 

There’s no other quarterback who brings the same level of passing volume and talent as Brady. Even so, remember that Godwin is only 27 and has several more productive seasons ahead of him. I wouldn’t give up on Godwin for the long term, but I expect his numbers to dip in this 2023 season. 

According to KTC, Godwin is ranked as the wide receiver 31, just above Marquise Brown and just below Jordan Addison. This might be fair value for Godwin. However, depending on your team build, I can see the argument for having him higher due to the uncertainty surrounding these players ahead of him.

For more free agent news, check out the Fantasy Football News Tracker.

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