According to the Fantasy Footballers, who operate one of the most respected fantasy football apps in the game, year three is the last, best chance a player has to truly breakout. If a player hasn’t taken a huge step forward by that point, chances are slim they’ll reach the next level.
There are a few factors that can go into a breakout. Maybe their role changed. Maybe they’re finally healthy. Maybe they have a better supporting cast.
Or maybe, just maybe, the NFL is super hard, and it takes some time to get adjusted. Here are our best bets for players who will take that crucial year-three jump in 2022.
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Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa Gets More Toys
In 2021, Tua Tagovailoa improved in almost every statistical category. He not only completed more passes and threw more touchdowns, but he had a higher completion percentage, touchdown percentage, more yards per attempt, and more yards per completion.
Tagovailoa was also one of the most accurate passers in the NFL last season, all while commanding a receiving corps devastated by injuries. This season, he’ll still have his most reliable target from last year in Jaylen Waddle (a breakout candidate in his own right).
And in case you hadn’t heard, the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill to this mix. Aguably the most dangerous wide receiver in the league.
Jalen Hurts Can Still Get Better
You could argue that Jalen Hurts has already broken out, given that he finished as the number nine quarterback in fantasy points last season. He also showed that he has room to grow before reaching his ceiling.
Like Tagovailoa, Hurts has shown improvement in every football season he’s played, going all the way back to his high school days. And in 2022, he’ll have the best supporting cast to date.
The Eagles have a solid one-two punch in the backfield, an outstanding receiving tight end, and one of the best offensive lines in football. If that’s not room to celebrate, they also added a legit number one receiver in AJ Brown.
Hurts was already a top-10 quarterback. This year, a top five year isn’t out of the question.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift Tries to Shake the Injury Bug
D’Andre Swift seemed like he was having his breakout year in 2021, piling up back-to-back 130-yard games in Weeks 8 and 9. Then his season was torpedoed when he hurt his shoulder in Week 10 (oddly, the same point in the season that he got injured in 2020).
This year, Swift is coming into the season with a focus on staying healthy, and the Lions are doing their best to protect him in training camp and the preseason. Detroit has a good offensive line that’s getting better, a talented receiving corps, and improved offensive play calling.
If Swift can stay healthy for an entire 17-game season, 1,300 yards from scrimmage is a conservative projection. He could be a steal in 2022 drafts.
Eno Benjamin Sails Under the Radar
If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, especially in PPR leagues, consider the Cardinals running back Eno Benjamin. Benjamin is starting the season second on the depth chart behind the historically fragile James Conner.
Last season, Conner managed to stay healthy for 15 games and was named to the Pro Bowl on the back of an unsustainable 18 touchdowns. Expect Benjamin to take at least a sizeable chunk of Conner’s reps on passing downs this season, with the potential to end the year at the top of Arizona’s depth chart.
Don’t be afraid to take a chance on Benjamin.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy Has a Solid Supporting Cast
Jerry Jeudy had a solid rookie year for the Broncos, then regressed last season amid injuries and inconsistent quarterback play. In 2022, Jeudy is now completely healthy. And now he’ll have a future Hall of Famer throwing to him.
He’s returned to the slot wide receiver position, a role in while he thrived playing at Alabama. Russell Wilson has also favorited slot receivers, a positive sign for Jeudy’s potential in 2022.
Couple these harbingers with the fact that the Broncos offense is loaded at every other skill position, and you’ve got an excellent sleeper play in Jeudy. Defenses are going to have a tough time choosing who to guard.
If Jeudy stays healthy, he could pile up as many yards in 2022 as he did in his first two years combined. He’s a great wide receiver sleeper candidate.
Brandon Aiyuk Looks to Continue Successes
Brandon Aiyuk started slowly last year, then got better and better as the season progressed. Through the first six weeks of the season, he saw only 2.67 targets a game. But from week seven on, he saw almost three times as much action: 6.18 targets per game.
The last two games of the year also happened to be the two games where he gained the most yards. So he has a solid base on which to build in 2022.
The real wildcard here, of course, is the play of quarterback Trey Lance. If Lance can be the difference maker that the Niners think he will be, Aiyuk could be in line for his first 1,000-yard season.
The Broncos wide receiver strength of schedule for 2022 is 24th, a favorable outlook. Currently, his ADP is #98. That’s good for a round 8 pick, or round 7 if you just have to have him.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet is Reaching his Potential
In 2021, Cole Kmet took some giant steps forward following a disappointing rookie year for the former 2nd Round pick. Kmet had more catches, more yards, a higher catch percentage, and more yards per catch.
Helping Kmet’s cause, this will be Justin Fields’ second season as the starter in Chicago. So it’s reasonable to expect considerable improvement from the young quarterback with high potential.
Lastly, reports from camp are that Kmet has added speed and has been blasting past defensive backs in practice. Kmet has future TE1 written all over him. Grab him when you can.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s Role to Expand
Albert Okwuegbunam is a clear-cut breakout candidate for two big reasons. First, the player above him on the depth chart was traded away. Second, the player that came back in that trade was Russell Wilson.
With the Broncos stacked receiving corps and balanced running attack, Big O may have to fight for targets. But don’t be surprised to see his name in the TE1 conversation by the end of the season.
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