A fantasy football breakout is a player who has a significant increase in fantasy production from one season to the next. This can be due to a number of factors, such as an increase in playing time, a change in offensive coordinator, or simply a player reaching their full potential.
There are a few key things to look for when identifying potential fantasy football breakouts. First, you want to look for players who have shown flashes of potential but have not yet reached their full potential. Second, you want to look for players who are in good situations, such as players who are on high-powered offenses or who have a clear path to playing time. Finally, you want to look for players who are undervalued by the fantasy community.
Today, I’ll be covering one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, and one tight end. Let’s get right into my top breakout candidates for fantasy football in 2023.
Desmond Ridder
We kick off the 2023 breakout team with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.
Desmond Ridder goes into 2023 with a full offseason to prepare and a whole new set of weapons. Desmond Ridder steps into 2023 with a full offseason under his belt and a fresh array of talented receivers to connect with on the field. He gets a healthy Kyle Pitts, who he didn’t get to play with last year.
The Falcons added one of the best running back prospects in quite some time in Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick. Atlanta also added pass catchers Scotty Miller and Mack Hollins along with tight end Jonnu Smith. He’s already got a top fifteen wide receiver in the league in Drake London and will be standing behind what should be a top ten offensive line.
Last season, Ridder took over for Marcus Mariota late in the year and started the last four games. Overall, his numbers don’t pop off the charts (708 yards and two touchdowns) but after looking back at what he did in 2022, two things are clear:
- This offense is going to be a lot better in 2023
- QB30 is simply way too low of a ranking
I’m going to shoot it straight here. Unless Ridder gets injured or somehow gets benched, he is going to blow past his ADP. Right now, he is going around the QB30 range, which is borderline criminal for a quarterback with a top wide receiver, a top tight end, a top running back, and a top ten offensive line.
One thing I do want to point out, the passing in Arthur Smith’s offense went up when Ridder took over. His pass attempts in his four starts: 26, 33, 26, and 30. When Mariota was starting the first 13 games, he had 26 or more pass attempts four times. As you can see in the graph below, Ridder’s floor was way up compared to Mariota’s when he took over in Week 15.
Also, a shoutout to Seth Keller (@fftheathomedad on Twitter) for the help with the graphs above.
Even if Arthur Smith wants to establish the run, the passing game floor raised significantly with both Pitts and London on the field. It also helps that Bijan Robinson is also a great pass-catcher out of the backfield.
A few quarterbacks ranked ahead of him currently (that I personally do not agree with) are Ryan Tannehill, Sam Howell, Trey Lance, CJ Stroud, and Bryce Young.
Young and Stroud are rookies with limited weapons. Lance will more than likely not start a game, Howell has one start in his career, and Tannehill is on a team with a bad offensive line with very few weapons in a run-first offense.
Personally, I believe Ridder should surpass those guys if he just shows up to the stadium. Another thing to note is that the Falcons have the easiest schedule in 2023. On paper, at least.
In best ball drafts, he’s not hard to get. Especially in contests where stacking is more important or you need to be a little different, Ridder is an excellent option not only because he is cheap, but because you don’t have to sacrifice high-end draft capital to get him compared to other quarterbacks.
Depending on how you draft, you can draft London or Robinson in the first two rounds. Then, you could even grab Pitts a few rounds later and complete the stack with Ridder that way.
2QB and Superflex Leagues
I am not expecting Desmond Ridder to launch himself into elite status fantasy-wise, but right now, the bar has been set way too low. Even though they brought in Taylor Heinicke this offseason, Arthur Smith has made it clear this is Ridder’s team.
As far as Ridder’s fantasy projection goes, the case can be made that he sneaks into around the QB15-QB20 range. The passing volume for the Falcons should get a small bump from where it was with Marcus Mariota and I expect Atlanta to take more deep shots than they did in 2022 with the weapons they have.
Ridder does not have the rushing ability of guys like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts but he can escape the pocket and be mobile when needed. He ran some RPO while in college at Cincinnati and if Arthur Smith decides to tap into that, his value goes way up.
If you are looking for someone to compare Ridder to, Daniel Jones is a fair comparison. His style isn’t flashy but has enough upside to win fantasy matchups.
Overall, when it comes down to it, Ridder is the kind of quarterback that should be on your shortlist. He’s a young gun that has all the makings of a breakout star in 2023. With a price tag that’s as close to free as it gets in drafts, he’s a smart pick that could pay dividends.
JK Dobbins
JK Dobbins fell under the radar as one of the better running backs to end the 2022 season, after missing most of the first half of the year recovering from a torn ACL.
After returning from his knee scope in Week 15, he averaged over five yards per carry three times in his final four games. On top of that, he went over the 100-yard mark twice.
The New-Look Ravens Offense
Lamar Jackson is finally signed long-term and is fully healthy. Todd Monken takes over as offensive coordinator from Greg Roman. The Ravens added rookie Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. to go along with Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Rashod Bateman.
Before being the Georgia Bulldogs’ offensive coordinator for the last few years, Todd Monken was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay between 2016-2018 and in Cleveland in 2019.
Looking at how he has handled running backs, he is much more concentrated on using one running back whereas Greg Roman has rotated players. Dobbins could easily average 15-20 touches a game in this offense that should also score more than it did last year.
During the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have, unsurprisingly, been incredibly good at running into light boxes (0.19 EPA/play—best in the NFL).
Expect them to see fewer stacked boxes this year, and for the rushing attack to benefit from improved spacing. pic.twitter.com/6di6fAPJZB
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) June 12, 2023
Right now, Dobbins’ ADP is all over the place. He goes anywhere from RB15-RB25 currently in drafts. If you get him toward his RB25 ADP, he should be a smash. Dobbins has shown flashes of his elite upside but due to injuries, he hasn’t hit his full potential. Finally, a fully healthy Dobbins could change the narrative and he could be a huge breakout candidate in 2023.
Elijah Moore
This offseason, Cleveland traded with the New York Jets to acquire 2021 second-round pick Elijah Moore. For whatever reason, the Jets and Moore have never had a good relationship. Finally, after two years, Moore requested a trade to get out of New York and finally got dealt to the Browns this offseason.
Since entering the league, Moore has shown plenty of potential. Including three top-10 weekly finishes in fantasy football in his rookie year. Needless to say, his 2022 season left a lot to be desired. However, much of that was due to quarterback play and not being on the field full-time.
Moore switching things up with a change of scenery could really do wonders for him. The Browns are crossing their fingers, thinking that what didn’t quite sparkle for one team might just turn into a hidden gem for them.
Deshaun Watson started the last six games of 2022 for Cleveland. However, there’s no denying he did not look like one of the top quarterbacks in the league as he did in Houston. Not having an offseason or the ability to work with the team while suspended was a big factor. Additionally, most people don’t realize is two of those games were played in horrible weather. Things did get better towards the end of the year and I am willing to look past 2022 and see the potential for the Browns offense in 2023.
Before his suspension, Watson finished as a borderline top-five fantasy quarterback in the three seasons prior. Recently, reports have come out of Browns camp that it hasn’t taken long for Moore and Watson to build chemistry, being the most targeted player through camp. Moore has been lined up all over the formation and even in the backfield. Moore could easily be what Will Fuller was to Watson when he was in Houston.
The price to draft Moore is starting to creep up a little bit, but at the moment, Moore is around WR50.
The potential is there now that he finally has a good quarterback throwing to him. We do have to wait and see if DeAndre Hopkins ends up in Cleveland but if he doesn’t, I expect Moore to start as the WR2 on the team beside Amari Cooper.
Overall, Moore is a great dart throw that could potentially have league-winning fantasy football upside.
Greg Dulcich
Even though the Broncos’ offense was abysmal last year, third-round pick Greg Dulcich showed some promise in 2022 after missing the first five games of his rookie year.
Per FantasyPros, Dulcich averaged 5.5 targets per game. Additionally, he drew eight or more targets in four out of his 10 games played. Last year, he only scored two touchdowns. However, I believe that was due to the offense never being able to move the ball downfield into the red zone.
Sean Payton has taken over as head coach and has been one of the better play callers in NFL history. Payton came out with high praise for Greg Dulcich and hinted that he could be the ‘joker’ in his offense. Notably, some players that have previously been in that role include Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara. These are players who create mismatches for the defense and it sounds like Payton has a plan for Dulcich that fantasy players should be excited about.
Payton has a pretty good resume with producing fantasy-relevant tight ends. A few that come to mind are Jimmy Graham and Taysom Hill.
I’m not saying Dulcich will be those guys but in a position where we’re trying to find needles in a haystack. However, he could easily have a breakout year in 2023 and be a fantasy-relevant option week in and week out.
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