NFL Week 1 is here! All the hard-hitting, side-stepping, touchdown-spiking action is back and fantasy owners are salivating for their favorite superstars to light up the scoreboard. For the next 18 weeks, I’ll be with you along for the ride, looking for the biggest, highest-scoring, most exciting fantasy game each week. I will preview that game and tell you everything you need to know heading into the weekend. If you only have time to watch one game a week, these will be the games you don’t want to miss.
The Fantasy Matchup of the Week for Week 1 of the 2023 season is…
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The NFL knew what they were doing when they decided to kick off the season between the defending Super Bowl champs and the up-and-coming NFC North underdogs. There are nearly a dozen fantasy-relevant players in consideration so let’s jump right into it.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff is a solid QB2 option for Superflex leagues and a possible streaming option in redraft. There is a strong chance of a shootout and Goff would certainly benefit from that script. It is important to note, though, that last year, Goff played much better at home than he did on the road. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the more challenging places to play. Your hope here is that the Chiefs force Goff to throw a ton to keep up, which is not inconceivable considering who his counterpart is.
Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best in the business and is a weekly contender for the overall QB1 performance. He can make any throw from any angle at any time. If you have him, you probably spent a high draft pick. There’s nothing about this matchup (or any matchup) that scares you away from him. Even if I tell you that the Lions have a couple of great pass-rushers in Aiden Hutchinson and James Houston, you still shouldn’t be swayed from deploying your top-3 option. Start him and watch sparks fly as he makes magic.
Running Backs
DET Running Backs
We will finally get to see how Dan Campbell plans on using his backfield tandem of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The narratives from the offseason should continue to guide our expectations until we see otherwise. Montgomery should be the between-the-tackles, hard-nosed runner with goal-line work, while Gibbs will play a pass-catching role where he’ll be spread out around the formation.
Montgomery is a good RB2 play in all formats, even PPR. If Detroit has to play catch-up, Montgomery has proven he can catch the ball — he averaged almost 39 catches a season over four years in Chicago. I’d play him over the following players in his range: James Conner, Jamaal Williams, and any RB option from DEN, NYJ, or PHI.
Gibbs is a top-12 RB option this week in a high projected over-under (54). The game script figures to favor Gibbs and his skill set. Whether he is your RB1 or RB2, start him with confidence. Players I’d start Gibbs over: Najee Harris, Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III, and the two options of the Chiefs.
KC Running Backs
On the other side of the ball, you have a similarly styled combo with Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco is in the Montgomery role and McKinnon is in the Gibbs role. Pacheco should get a lot of run in this one to keep the defense honest and kill the clock. I like Pacheco as an RB2 with RB1 upside if he can get into the endzone. Players I like Pacheco over are Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr., and Montgomery.
McKinnon is more of a flex play who should be good for a few carries, a handful of catches, 30-70 yards, and a strong chance at a touchdown. He has a knack for finding the endzone. I’d play McKinnon over Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Allgeier, Antonio Gibson, and AJ Dillon.
Do not start or even roster Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the option to own and play in Detroit. As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks with his preseason ankle injury (*knock on wood*), he should be in for a big game. Deploy him as a WR1. I like St. Brown over CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, and Garrett Wilson this week.
Marvin Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds are desperation dart throws for deeper leagues. I like the shootout potential, so Jones Jr. or Reynolds could have an impactful game, but it’s a shot in the dark trying to say which one it will be, if either. Try and avoid them if possible; if not, pick one and close your eyes. I’d play Jones Jr. before Reynolds.
The Chiefs’ wide receiver room has been a headache to decipher this entire offseason. Justyn Ross, Justin Watson, Rashee Rice, and Richie James all tried to plead their case in the preseason to be relevant. The truth is none of them stepped up enough to demand first-team targets. Last year’s pecking order (minus Juju Smith-Schuster) is this year’s pecking order until proven otherwise.
That means Marquez Valdez-Scantling (MVS), Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore are the top three options in this corps. Even with a hall-of-fame quarterback throwing the ball, none of these wideouts have risen to replace Tyreek Hill.
All three of these players are high-risk flex options despite the high over-under. If I had to start one, it’d probably be MVS because of his deep-threat role. If I’m going to get lucky and hit on one of these three, the high risk should be matched by high upside. That’s MVS more than Toney or Moore until we see something to the contrary, but I’d rather play none of them.
Tight Ends
Everyone wants rookie Sam LaPorta to be the next big thing in Detroit, but first-stringer Brock Wright would like to keep his job. Both were rarely seen this preseason and neither can be relied upon for fantasy. Do not start either until one can emerge as a consistent fantasy option.
Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ offense. He is the TE1 and has been for six of the last seven years. The hodgepodge of wide receivers only serves to prove his stranglehold on passing work in KC. Unless he’s injured or on bye, there’s no reason to ever take Kelce out of your starting lineup.
Follow me (@WSFilosofee) and with Faceoff Sports Network throughout the season as I preview every Fantasy Matchup of the Week!
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