In the world of fantasy football, finding those hidden gems in the middle rounds can make or break your season. When it comes to running backs, it is often said to avoid these middle rounds and the “dead zone”. However, there are always a few who break the mold and return immense value (and points). These players often hold the key to championship glory. For example, Josh Jacobs this past season, and Leonard Fournette in 2021.
In this article, we’ll take a closer look at four middle-round running backs who have the potential to carry your team to victory. From their proven track records to the unique skills that set them apart, we’ll delve into why these players are worth your attention as you draft your fantasy squad. These middle-round running backs offer a blend of consistency and upside that could be the X-factor for your fantasy team. So, let’s dive in and uncover the players who might just be your ticket to fantasy football glory this season.
David Montgomery — Detroit Lions
You might be wondering, “David Montgomery? Why him? Isn’t Jahmyr Gibbs taking over?” Well, let me clarify.
Last season, the Detroit Lions, under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, excelled in gap runs, ranking fourth. However, they lagged in zone runs, ranking 28th. Jamaal Williams was a key figure in gap runs but left for New Orleans in free agency, leaving a void in their offense. That’s where David Montgomery comes in, signing a three-year, $18 million deal.
Even in limited playtime last season, Montgomery ranked seventh in EPA per play on gap runs. In contrast, Jahmyr Gibbs, in his collegiate career, had only 19 rushes on gap plays, with negative EPA per play on those limited looks. Speaking of limited, he also was rarely used inside the five yard line and in short to-go situations
All signs point to Montgomery becoming the new and improved Jamaal Williams for the high-scoring Motor City offense.
Dameon Pierce — Houston Texans
The 2022 NFL season didn’t offer many reliable fantasy options within the Texans’ offense. Nevertheless, Pierce emerged as a dependable RB2 choice in his rookie year, racking up 10+ PPR points in nine out of 13 games.
Pierce stands at the forefront of this Houston backfield, poised to command a substantial share of touches with the only real competition coming from Devin Singletary. While the offense’s struggles may hinder his efficiency, there’s optimism due to Houston’s strong run-blocking offensive line, which should keep his yards per carry respectable.
Despite occasional inefficiencies and scoring limitations, Pierce handled a featured RB workload in his debut season. In 2022, he was among only six RBs to log 26+ carries in multiple games. Among other fourth/fifth-round RBs, Pierce stands out as a strong candidate for 300+ total touches.
In my view, selecting Pierce in the middle rounds is a wise move. While he may not have a league-winning upside, if he maintains last season’s per-game volume, he should easily deliver RB2 value in 2023, with room for much more if his passing upside is discovered.
James Conner — Arizona Cardinals
As Kyler Murray works on rehabbing his torn ACL, James Conner becomes the go-to guy for Arizona. The Cardinals might face a rough season, possibly flirting with the idea of securing the top pick next April.
Nonetheless, Conner remains a cornerstone of their offense, expected to handle at least 20 touches per game. Aside from him, Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown is the only other player set for a high-volume role, making Conner a crucial asset for your fantasy football squad.
The front office didn’t invest in adding more running backs in the offseason, indicating confidence in Conner’s workload. With Kyler Murray’s slow recovery, they can rely on the running game in the meantime. Last year, Conner excelled with 20.7 touches per game and 10 scores in eight games without Murray. Additionally, he averages 16.7 touches and 82.9 total yards per game in games without DeAndre Hopkins.
I know that selecting players from struggling teams can be challenging, but these rosters still offer significant value. As Arizona defines its identity under new a coaching staff, Conner should maintain consistent fantasy worth throughout the season.
Consider Conner as a prime RB2/RB3 option in the middle rounds of your draft; he’s unlikely to come off the board until around RB20. Finding such a steal late in your fantasy football drafts is exceedingly rare, making Conner a potential steal of the year.
Rachaad White — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White’s role in the Tampa Bay offense bloomed exponentially during his rookie season. Despite a slow start, his involvement in both passing and rushing increased, especially from Week 12 onward. Since there haven’t been significant free agent signings and no running backs drafted, we can expect White to see plenty of opportunities.
The shift from Brady to Mayfield/Trask suggests a likely downgrade at the quarterback position for the Bucs. Considering the existing weaknesses in their offensive line and the quarterbacks’ struggles under pressure, this offense may struggle. Without a strong passing attack, White’s prospects on the ground seem dim.
A less efficient rusher with reduced receiving chances might not be the sleeper many think he is. While White’s name is popular in fantasy football circles, some might overvalue him. However, considering his current ADP, taking a risk on him as a three-down back in the seventh/eighth round can be a valuable move. In redraft leagues, I’d gladly select him at this price point.
Conclusion
In conclusion, when it comes to securing a fantasy football championship, finding those middle-round running backs can be a game-changer. Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White, with his explosive plays and potential, offers a tantalizing upside. Detroit’s David Montgomery, a consistent and versatile workhorse, promises reliability in any fantasy lineup. Arizona’s James Conner, now in a more prominent role, could be the touchdown machine your team needs. And don’t overlook Houston’s Dameon Pierce, a rising star who could surprise with his breakout potential.
These four backs, each with their unique strengths, have the potential to be the secret weapons that lead your fantasy team to glory. Including any of these guys in your draft strategy could give your team the edge it needs. So, as you prepare for your fantasy draft, keep these middle-round gems in mind and be ready to pounce on the opportunity to bolster your roster with these potential league-winning running backs.
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