Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week – Week 13

Week 13 is upon us and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Every decision becomes increasingly more pivotal as every single point is valuable when you’re trying to secure your spot for the postseason. This is why it’s so important to know what matchups are the best to target for fantasy production. Last week, my Matchup of the Week yielded 192.16 fantasy points (in half-PPR, 4pt-pass TD scoring)! That one game alone determined a significant amount of fantasy matchups.

This week’s Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week should be no different in terms of its impact on victories. A few matchups that are poised to put up points are the Dolphins @ Commanders, the Broncos @ Texans, and even the Colts @ Titans could have some divisional fireworks. I wanted to go with the Seahawks @ Cowboys on Thursday night, but I worry about how much offense Geno Smith and company can gain against Dallas’ stout defense. The matchup I have the most confidence in for fantasy goodness, my Fantasy Football Matchup of the Week is the…

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

One thing that I’ve learned while writing this weekly series is that you have to go where the matchups take you. As much as I may want to diversify and write about all 32 NFL teams, the sad truth is that this sort of article will never highlight the offenses of the league’s worst. Conversely, I’m drawn to the league’s best teams, and with the NFL’s best record at 10-1, the Eagles deserve to be featured in consecutive weeks. Similar to last week’s overtime slugfest, this matchup is shaping up as two potent, efficient offenses likely to overcome good defenses en route to a back-and-forth scoring affair. Let’s get into it.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy‘s story continues to unfold like a fairytale; the last-round, last-pick underdog is making the most of his opportunity in the league and is now valuable for the franchise and for fantasy. Not only is he supporting his star-studded cast at a league-winning level, but he himself has been effective and useful as a QB1. Last week’s effort against Seattle was a flop, but in the two games before that, he threw for roughly 300 yards and 3 TDs each. This week, he’s gearing up to face the league’s second-friendliest matchup against QBs. Josh Allen just put up 339-2 with 9-81-2 on the ground. I like Purdy in this matchup over Jared Goff (@ NO), Trevor Lawrence (vs Cin), and Justin Herbert (@ NE).

Jalen Hurts is grinding through one of the toughest run of matchups a quarterback could ever face, but Dallas’ 4th, Kansas City’s 6th, and Buffalo’s 10th-ranked defenses against QBs couldn’t slow him down. He reached paydirt at least three times in each of those games. San Francisco’s 2nd-best-ranked defense will try their darndest too, but ultimately, I think Hurts will still get his. If Hurts can come out of this one with another solid, multi-touchdown performance, there will be no reason to ever doubt Hurts, including when he visits Dallas and Seattle in the next two weeks. Fire up your quarterback linchpin.

Running Backs

There’s not much to analyze or break down for the NFL’s best running back. Christian McCaffrey is far and away the most valuable fantasy football asset across all positions. When his floor in half-PPR scoring is 12.7 points, and his ceiling is nearly 50, you know you have a bust-proof, week-winning player. Philadelphia may be the best in the league against the run, but that won’t matter when McCaffrey can win on the ground and through the air. You don’t need me to tell you to start your top-3 overall pick.

In blowout potential matchups, Elijah Mitchell can be flexed for his mop-up role, but this is not one of them. I would, however, stash Mitchell, if I had the roster space, for the next few weeks when he plays Seattle and at Arizona. He could be desperation-worthy as the Niners will soon look to preserve their starters for the playoffs.

The matchup against San Francisco’s 4th-ranked rushing defense is far from ideal, but D’Andre Swift is the unquestioned, primary ball carrier for Philadelphia’s top-4 ranked rushing offense for attempts, touchdowns, and first downs. If it weren’t for Swift having to compete with Hurts and the “brotherly shove,” I’d be more optimistic about Swift’s chances of finding the endzone. Since taking over in Week 2, Swift has not seen less than 15 touches a game. Projecting a similar high volume, but low-efficiency game, Swift is settling in as a risky RB2. I’d play Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, and Jaylen Warren over Swift this week.

Kenneth Gainwell is in a similar boat as Mitchell on the other side. He has no standalone value at the moment, but in the right matchup, or if something were to ever happen to the RB1, he would immediately fall into relevance. Until then, he’s a handcuff stash.

Wide Receivers

San Francisco

The dynamic, dual-threat Deebo Samuel has found his way into the endzone in two of his last three games since returning from a three-week absence (injury + bye). In this rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, Samuel will be used creatively and often, putting him in positions to rack up the YAC. Deebo is 2nd in the league in Yards After the Catch per Reception (7.5) for qualifying receivers (>24 receptions, 2 rec/game). I like Samuel to have a good game in this one, especially going against statistically the worst defense against fantasy WRs.  I like Deebo over Puka Nacua, Adam Thielen, and Cooper Kupp.

Brandon Aiyuk has been on a tear recently, amassing a couple of hundred-yard games and three touchdowns in the last four weeks. Aiyuk has become Purdy’s downfield threat and has established a dependable role in this prolific offense. Aiyuk should return great value in this plus matchup. I have him projected for 100+ yards and a score, putting him firmly in the WR1 category. Aiyuk is in my lineup over Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley, and his WR2 counterpart, DeVonta Smith.

The Niners’ tertiary options in Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III get a few catches a game but are rarely viable options for fantasy. Unless you’re in really deep, PPR leagues, these players shouldn’t be considered.

Philadelphia

The Eagles’ alpha wide receiver has been anything but dominant these last few weeks. AJ Brown was at least able to redeem himself for the disappearing act he performed in Week 11 with a mediocre 5-37-1 line this past Sunday. That line is certainly not what managers expected from their WR1 after his historic, six consecutive 125-yard receiving games, but they’ll take it. Brown is not in consideration to be benched, so the real question is what can we expect from him against a San Francisco unit that is allowing the 12th most points to WRs. I’m projecting Brown to return to form in this one, converting 70%+ of his double-digit targets for 80+ yards and a score.

DeVonta Smith has stepped up while Brown has been struggling these past few weeks. Smith has three (near) hundred-yard receiving games and three touchdowns over his last four. Similar to Aiyuk across the field, Smith has established himself as a core piece of this potent offense, especially since Dallas Goedert has been out with a broken forearm. There’s a chance Goedert returns this week, but I still like Smith to retain a substantial role in this juggernaut matchup. I’d play Smith over DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Nico Collins.

Last week, I said that Philadelphia’s deeper receiving options weren’t options at all, and outside of a miraculous catch in the endzone from Olamide Zaccheaus, that was a correct call. That was his only target and only catch, it just happened to be significant for the outcome of the game. For fantasy, keep Zaccheaus and Julio Jones out of your starting lineups.

Tight Ends

George Kittle was on fire before this past week, putting up 432 yards and 2 TDs in his last four. On Thanksgiving, Kittle reminded us why he’s a risky TE option for fantasy. As good as the Niners were in their 31-13 victory, sometimes they simply don’t need all their weapons to succeed. That was and can be the case in any given week for Kittle. This Sunday, I expect San Francisco and company to need Kittle to produce to take out the thorn in their side from last year’s postseason defeat. The Eagles are the 7th most generous defense to the TE position. Start Kittle with confidence.

Dallas Goedert is itching to return to the field after missing the last three weeks with an injury and the bye. Philadelphia’s offense is more well-rounded with Goedert lining up next to the O line, but we’ll have to wait and see what his practice participation looks like this week. If he suits up, Goedert can be deployed as a backend TE1 against the 49ers’ 28th-friendliest matchup to tight ends. If he doesn’t play, Jack Stoll, the only TE to step into a receiving role with Goedert out, is not a viable fantasy option. He simply doesn’t get enough looks to warrant starting consideration.

Despite having the best record in the NFL, the Eagles are 3-point home underdogs in this NFC clash of titans. The Niners are firing on all cylinders right now, and the Eagles feel like they’ve squeaked out their last few victories. If the Eagles can put together a solid four quarters of offense, something they’ve had a hard time doing of late, then there’s no reason this game can’t hit the 46.5 OVER. There’s also no reason why you shouldn’t follow us for our rankings, start/sits, waiver pickups, and tools to give you the edge on making your playoffs. Follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram @fffaceoff, or me @WSFilosofee. Good luck and high scoring!

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