Fantasy Football: Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

Every year we try to determine which players are going to be sleepers, breakouts, and busts. We look for players to avoid in our fantasy football drafts or for which players are going to finally take the next step. Those breakouts might be the players who have been disappointments in the past or are heading into their third year, which has been known to be the time when a breakout comes. We also want to find that player who no one is looking at that is in for a big season, making you look like a genius.

If you can correctly identify these players it can be huge for your team either in the draft, through trades, or from the waiver wire. I am going to give you some veteran players and rookies to target or avoid in drafts this year for fantasy football purposes.

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Sleepers

Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints

I have Taysom Hill as a sleeper this year. He has been moved to tight end this year and with the current roster, I believe he is the best tight end on the team. I also see him lining up in the backfield at times especially if Alvin Kamara is suspended. I could see him being a big red-zone threat as a tight end and definitely as a running back inside the five-yard line. Hill has had 13 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons.

I might be crazy but it would not surprise me if he finished with 800 total yards and eight touchdowns. Hill has had some hype in the past and been talked about as the potential starter at the quarterback position, but I believe Jameis Winston has that locked up. All that being said, Hill is not getting talked about at all and could be a sleeper this year.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Rookie running back TylerAllgeier has great size at 5’11 220 pounds and has excellent vision. He showed that he is excellent in yards after contact and had a phenomenal season last year with 1,601 yards and 23 touchdowns. If that wasn’t impressive enough he had four games with over 190 yards and only one game without a touchdown.

With the Falcons releasing Mike Davis it provides an opportunity for a significant role in the offense right away with only a 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson as any serious competition and it was reported that Patterson could be used more at wide receiver.

Breakouts

Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets

I know what you are thinking, a Jets player as a breakout, really? Yes, a Jets player. The Jets have done a lot in free agency and the draft to help out their second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. They added two offensive linemen, C.J. Uzomah, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson to go along with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore from last year. You could definitely make an argument that the Jets grabbed the best rookie running back and wide receiver in this class, which might not be getting talked about enough.

Last season Jets were third in pass play percentage and just added one of the best wide receivers in the draft in Wilson. With another year in this offense and the weapons that Wilson has to work with, I think he is going to take a major step forward. The Jets might actually be fun to watch this year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson is a big-bodied running back with great yards after contact and is excellent at breaking tackles. In just 12 games in his rookie season, he managed to rush for 606 yards and five touchdowns while averaging a very respectful 4.56 YPC on just 133  attempts.

I see him getting more work this season and improving on what he did in his rookie season and if Damien Harris who is in the last year of his rookie contract were to get injured it would be the sky is the limit for Stevenson.

Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Rookie wide receiver Skyy Moore checks all the boxes needed to be a breakout: great quarterback, coach, and offensive scheme as well as the opportunity, and physical abilities. He has a great release against press coverage, great hands, and speed and quickness. He’s on a pass-heavy team with an elite quarterback and I believe he can quickly become the No. 2 target on the team behind Travis Kelce.

If he can develop a connection with Patrick Mahomes early on he could be in for a monster season. Yes, JuJu Smith-Schuster is there and will be drafted sooner in fantasy drafts, but Moore might have just as much of a chance to succeed in this offense.

Busts

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Many people have AJ Brown as a top-five receiver, but I am not one of those people for a few reasons. The first of those reasons is the injuries that have caused Brown to miss multiple games in both of the last two seasons. He has had injuries to the chest, calf, hamstring, and knees which he had to have surgery on both after the 2020 season. It is said that one of the most important things in business is location, location, location. Well for wide receivers it is targets, targets, targets and Brown just isn’t going to see a ton in Philadelphia.

Last year with Jalen Hurts at quarterback the Eagles finished dead last in passing play percentage. Also, he will have more competition for targets than he ever had in Tennessee and while Ryan Tannehill isn’t an elite quarterback he is a better passer than Hurts.

Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans

I believe in Treylon Burks‘ talent but of the top six receivers in this class, Burks has the worst landing spot. As talented as A.J. Brown is he only finished top 20 once in PPR in this offense. Many people point to the fact that Brown is gone and that there are a ton of vacated targets, but is that really accurate?

Last season Brown ranked 30th in targets among wide receivers so it is not like he saw a ton of targets. The Titans finished bottom three in passing play percentage the past three years. Last year they finished 31st and that was with Derrick Henry getting injured in Week 8 and missing the rest of the regular season. The Titans released Julio Jones and sign Robert Woods. Jones only accounted for 48 targets and I see Woods commanding much more than that.

Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Cam Akers is ranked as a top 15 running back by many despite only scoring 15 fantasy points in 2/14 games. I know what the Akers truthers are going to say, “But he’s been injured.” Well, there is a saying “the best ability is availability,” and he just hasn’t been available. His injuries have included rib separation, high ankle sprain, shoulder, and most notably a torn Achilles. He came back from the Achilles injury in what seemed like record time.

All that being said, he did not look the same and failed to score a single touchdown in 83 touches. Also in the 20 games that he played, he only has four games with more than two receptions. So it does not appear that he is involved much in the passing game.

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