In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season, last Thursday we saw a big-time upset. The New England Patriots knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Free NFL Picks – Week 15

Week 15 is upon us. Good luck to everyone in their fantasy football playoff matchups. Before we dive into the picks, I am amazed at the legend of Tommy DeVito and how he has taken the New York area by storm. Fresh off a 24-22 win over the surging Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football, the former undrafted free agent completed 17 of his 21 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown, leading him to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Moreover, in his first five starts for the team since taking over for Tyrod Taylor, Devito has thrown five touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting the second-highest passer rating in the NFL (119.8) behind only Brock Purdy. He has also led the New York Giants out of a 2-8 hole and into the thick of the playoff race in the NFC.

So, does the New Jersey native have a chance to be the Giants’ starting quarterback of the future? That remains to be seen over the last month of the season. However, one thing remains certain. Even if the Illinois product returns to be a backup or fighting for a roster spot, football fans everywhere will always remember the story of how Tommy Cutlets caught lightning in a bottle while bringing hope to a season that felt lost for Big Blue. Coming off a 4-2 week, here are the picks.

Chicago Bears (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)

Chicago made a statement following their victory over the Lions a week ago. The Bears have now won three of four games while being competitive in every contest over the last month plus. Harassing Jared Goff all afternoon long, the team forced him into two interceptions. Moreover, they also sacked the former number-one overall pick four times. Continuing to make strides offensively, Justin Fields totaled 281 total yards while racking up two touchdowns, one through the air and one on the ground.

On the heels of naming Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback for the rest of the season, Cleveland got back in the win column on the heels of a 31-27 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Led by the play of their stellar defense, the Browns sacked Trevor Lawrence four times while grabbing three interceptions. While Cleveland needs a win to keep pace in the AFC wild-card hunt, Chicago appears to have turned a corner after a disastrous start. Look for their defense to play well and for Fields to make enough plays to keep this one close.

Pick: Bears (+3)

New York Jets (+9) vs. Miami Dolphins (-9)

Zach Wilson bounced back from a two-game benching and turned in his best performance as a pro in the Jets 30-6 win over the Houston Texans. The former second-overall pick threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns while setting career highs in completion percentage (75%) and passer rating (117.9). Meanwhile, New York’s defense held C.J. Stroud to a season-low 91 yards while keeping Houston out of the end zone.

Miami was shocked by the Tennessee Titans in one of the upsets of the season. After holding a 14-point lead with 4:34 left in the game, rookie Will Levis orchestrated two long scoring drives to hand Mike McDaniel’s group their first home loss of the year. Furthermore, the Dolphins have been getting hit hard by the injury bug at the wrong time.

After being in and out of the game on Monday night due to an ankle injury, Tyreek Hill did not practice this week. He remains a game-time decision heading into Sunday. It’s hard for me to believe that the return of Wilson is going to lead to anything of substance for New York. However, nine points is too big a number against this defense.

Pick: Jets (+9)

Washington Commanders (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

The Commanders lost four games in a row before their week 13 bye. They most recently were routed 45-15 by the Dolphins. Home to the NFL’s worst defense, Washington has surrendered at least 29 points in four of their last five games. The team ranks 32nd in the league in both passing yards allowed per game (266.0) and points allowed per game (30.4).

Currently the eighth seed in the NFC, Los Angeles is hot on the heels of the Green Bay Packers for the final wild-card spot. Falling in heartbreaking fashion to the Baltimore Ravens, the Rams took the AFC’s number one seed to overtime before losing on a walk-off punt return touchdown. Washington is all but out of the playoff race. The franchise appears to be headed for another coaching change in the offseason, with the Ron Rivera era all but over. Compared to a Los Angeles team that has a path to the postseason laid out in front of them, this one screams blowout for the home crew.

Pick: Rams (-6.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Following their second straight 10-1 start, the Eagles are suddenly reeling. They were blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in one of the games of the year before a deflating loss to the Dallas Cowboys a week ago. Unable to get off the field defensively, Philadelphia ranks 32nd in the league in third down conversion percentage (48.1). Furthermore, despite all of the star power on their defensive line, the group produces sacks just 6.62 percent of the time.

Desperately searching for a victory, the Seahawks have endured one of the toughest stretches of the season after two losses to the 49ers, sandwiched in with a loss to the Cowboys. Still, within striking distance in the NFC wild-card race, one situation to monitor in this one will be the health of Geno Smith. The veteran quarterback returned to practice this week after being held out last Sunday due to a groin injury.

If Smith is able to start, he should have no problems attacking a Philadelphia secondary that is searching for answers. Nonetheless, it’s hard to see this Eagles team losing three games in a row for the first time in three years. Look for them to pull away late and cover in one of the best games of the weekend.

Pick: Eagles (-3)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills (O/U 50)

Lauded by many as the front-runner for the Most Valuable Player award, Dak Prescott is continuing to play the best football of his career. Since week 8, the 30-year-old has thrown for 2,172 passing yards and 22 TDs, the most in the NFL during that span. As a result, the Cowboys have won five straight games, including four wins by at least 20 points, giving them all the makings of a true Super Bowl contender.

Faced with must-win status in their game against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills were able to keep their playoff hopes alive and walk out of Arrowhead with a 20-17 victory. Josh Allen threw for 233 yards while amassing two total touchdowns, one on the ground and one through the air. James Cook led the way in the running game. He had 58 yards rushing and caught five passes for 83 yards and a score.

With the weather remaining dreary for Western New York heading into Sunday, current forecasts are calling for light rain and some wind. Paired with this, while the Cowboys have been one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL at home this season, Dallas is averaging just 20.4 points per game away from AT&T Stadium this season, a stark difference to the 40 points per game that Prescott and company average at Jerry’s world. Expect both defenses to be well-prepared leading, this one to go well under an inflated number.

Pick: Under 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers (O/U 42)

Suddenly, in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, Tampa Bay is riding a two-game winning streak. The Buccaneers knocked off the Atlanta Falcons last week behind a big day from second-year running back Rachaad White. The Arizona State product rushed for a season-high 102 yards, his second 100-yard game in three weeks. Additionally, Baker Mayfield made key plays down the stretch to secure the victory. He found tight end Cade Otton from 11 yards out with 31 seconds left to give his team the lead.

Arguably the hottest team in the NFL, the Packers suffered a disappointing defeat at the hands of the New York Giants. Green Bay gave up 367 total yards to Devito and company, including 209 rushing yards, the fourth time this season the team has yielded 200 rushing yards to an opponent. Furthermore, after not giving up the ball in their 32 previous drives, the Packers committed three turnovers, including an interception and lost fumble by Jordan Love.

Nevertheless, play the over here on a low total. Following its slow start to the season offensively, Green Bay has found its stride over the last month and a half. The franchise has averaged over 25 points per game over its last six contests. Meanwhile, Mayfield and company should supply enough offense against an inconsistent Packers defense.

Pick: Over 42

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