Keep Trade Cut – Dynasty Fantasy Football, Week 4

Welcome back to another edition of Keep Trade Cut for your dynasty fantasy football leagues. In this series, we break down a handful of different players who are similarly ranked for dynasty purposes. Each week, we’ll be using a different outside source for dynasty rankings. Today, we’re talking about three wide receivers.

In dynasty fantasy football leagues, a player’s week-to-week viability factors directly into their value across the season. That can lead to volatile valuations from managers and surprising trades involving assets trending up or down. Weekly during their 2023 season, we’ll discuss a trio of players who valued back to back to back in different dynasty rankings. Each week we’ll use a different source. From those rankings, we’ll discuss whether the three similarly valued players should be considered worth keeping, trading, or cutting them. No, you won’t be cutting these players in dynasty leagues, but that’s not the point of this scenario.

For this instance, the keeper is a player who sustains their value over this season and beyond. In other words, the player who should be valued most by managers or potential managers. The player worth trading is a player whose value may be buoyed by unsustainable volume, or holds a lot of value that may be more useful to move along from in your team’s makeup. A “cut” in this scenario is a player who is trending down or has an outlook that could change quickly, therefore being seen as the least valuable asset currently in the trio. This week, let’s discuss the WR24, WR25, and WR26 according to FantasyPros rankings.

Keep

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) Indianapolis Colts

The keep for this wide receiver trio is the current WR24 in these rankings, the Indianapolis Colts Michael Pittman Jr. He’s started the year with 34 targets through three games, meaning he’s had an average of 11.33 targets per game. Additionally, he has had consistency in that regard as well, having received 11 targets in two of the games and 12 in the other.

This year, Pittman Jr. has put up 230 yards and a touchdown on 25 catches so far. Additionally, he’s seen the most receiving targets from this trio and also caught the most balls inside the red zone (3 catches on 4 targets for 14 yards).

Moving forward, Pittman Jr. has shown he can be a main target for rookie Anthony Richardson and remain productive with Gardner Minshew stepping in at quarterback. Last week, he had a 9-catch, 77-yard performance despite Richardson’s absence.

Overall, Pittman Jr. has been a WR2 the last two seasons in points per reception leagues and currently finds himself as the WR10 in PPR formats. Additionally, he is the youngest of the three wide receivers at age 25. He seems to be growing into the top wide receiver option for the Colts.

Pittman Jr.’s current consistency score would make him a top-25 option at the position. However, he did produce a top-seven finish in Week 1, proving his ceiling with 97 yards and a touchdown. It’s clear the Colts are trying to compete. I’d expect them to throw plenty when losing and if they’re up, expect them to throw Pittman Jr.’s way to secure red zone touchdowns or to finish teams off. Finally, he should continue to prove he can be a WR1 for the next half-decade, and be providing targets from all places on the field.

Trade

Deebo Samuel (WR) San Francisco 49ers

The oldest wide receiver on this list is likely a shocker to trade. For just 2023, he should be a top wide receiver option for the redraft season. The San Fransisco 49ers Deebo Samuel is rated as the WR25 in the dynasty rankings we are examining, and dynasty managers will be thrilled with his current output through three games.

Last week, with Brandon Aiyuk injured for a matchup with the Giants, Samuel saw 12 receiving targets and caught 6 of those balls coming his way. He made big plays after the catch, continuing to show his strength and speed carrying the football. He’s a top-12 option whenever another injury crops up in this offense. However, he seemingly will be battling Aiyuk more for targets this year than ever before. His rushing should provide production, but that opens Samuel up to injury risks as well.

Furthermore, we all know the injury risks in rostering Samuel or any player. Samuel can make plays even if he’s not the lead target-getter week to week. Just how much he produces when everyone’s healthy is the question. At 27 years old, this may be a good time to pivot to a younger option while Samuel is valued this highly.

In Week 1 and Week 2, Samuel would finish as the WR36 and WR14 in half PPR formats. This is a far cry from his bump in value this last week, finishing as the WR7 in that format. Needless to say, he’s an exciting asset to own, but also a risky asset to continue to build around. If Samuel is your team’s WR3 or WR4, he is worth a hold if you’re competing. However, if you are not competing and he’s a top option for your team, or you want to get an idea of his market value, this week is fresh in people’s minds. It may be a terrific time to methodically or abruptly shop this talented player.

Cut

DJ Moore (WR) Chicago Bears

Our cut of the group is DJ Moore, a player many managers expected to be an offensive catalyst for the Chicago Bears after being acquired this offseason. Moore scored his first touchdown for the Bears this past week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but his Week 2 performance of 6 catches and 104 yards was his most productive output so far. Even so, he only received 7 targets in that game, which was a season-high, while finishing as the overall WR28 in half PPR formats, another season-high for him through 3 games. He’s only seen 15 targets this season and hasn’t proven he can be that top fantasy option from this offense as expected.

Moore has a Consistency Score (2.42) not astonishingly worse than Pittman Jr.’s (2.62). However, Moore and the Bears offense are seemingly heading in the opposite direction of the Colts. Meanwhile, the Bears will be rolling with Justin Fields through at least this season, and it’s hard to imagine this team beginning to pass more as the season goes on.

Fields’ strengths are on the ground, so while he did throw 37 passes in Week 1, that number has gone down each of the last two weeks while last week he had a season-high 11 carries. Additionally, Moore can’t seem to catch a break when it comes to fantasy situations. Not to mention, it seems to be more of the same this season and beyond in Chicago. He will need a drastic shift in quarterback play to ever reach consistent WR1 or WR2 status, and fantasy value seems likely to diminish on a week-by-week basis for multiple Bears assets.

Hopefully, Moore can sustain some value with his run-after-catch ability, but he needs the ball to get that yardage. All things considered, it may be time to sell Moore as quickly as possible, as his value peak for dynasty managers may have already been realized and passed.

Conclusion

Overall, all three of these players are likely undervalued at these current prices if you are looking to compete in dynasty leagues. All three still have a few more years that could provide production at the position, but one or a couple of these players may begin to see a massive stagnation in value midway through this year or next offseason. Both Moore and Samuel have had moments of top-15 wide receiver value on the dynasty markets, but with the lack of talent on Moore’s team, and plenty of talent on Samuel’s team, they may see a limit to their future production for very separate reasons.

These rankings are sensible, especially with this list valuing Pittman Jr. most for dynasty. I’d even say having him as the WR24 behind names such as Zay Flowers or Jerry Jeudy is a bit surprising. Pittman Jr. has two more top-20 finishes than those players combined and is well on his way to a third top-20 finish here in 2023. He’s only 25 years old and seems to be developing quite nicely in the Colts offense, with plenty of room to grow his stature in fantasy and continue to grow his value along the next few seasons.

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