NFL Week 1 — Picks ATS and Best Bets (2023)

September is upon us. The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will play host to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night to open up the 2023 season. Set to welcome the return of all 32 teams across the league, every franchise has its sights set on capturing the Lombardi Trophy. Looking back on one of the noisiest offseasons in recent memory, multiple star players across the league found new homes.

The Green Bay Packers traded star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets for multiple high-end draft picks. Along with this, the Las Vegas Raiders chose to move on from longtime signal caller Derek Carr. They released the former second-round pick and pivoted to Jimmy Garoppolo.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

The 49ers were, once again, one of the final four teams left standing across the NFL a year ago. They advanced to the NFC Championship game for the second time in three years. Kyle Shanahans’s group rattled off ten straight victories to close out the regular season. Along with this, the group also led the league in point differential during that stretch of time. Ultimately falling victim to a mounting pile of quarterback injuries in the postseason, the team lost all four of its starting signal callers before being knocked off by the Philadelphia Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are fresh off an unbeaten pre-season. Guided by the return of T.J. Watt, the three-time First-team All-Pro saw his 2022 season become derailed. He tore his pectoral muscle against the Cincinnati Bengals. Kenny Pickett is set to return in his second year at the helm. The University of Pittsburgh product looked strong during the spring. He should be able to pull off the upset in week 1.

Pick: Steelers (+3)

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) vs Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Atlanta is looking to take a step forward after back-to-back 7-10 finishes under head coach Arthur Smith. The Falcons head into the 2023 season hoping to snap their seven-year NFC South title drought. Home to one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks, the team should become even more potent on the ground following the selection of Bijan Robinson in April’s draft.

Now, under the guidance of Bryce Young, the Panthers choose to move up for the first overall pick to select the former Heisman Trophy winner. Focused on surrounding him with talent in the offseason, the team added wide receivers Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and running back Miles Sanders. Young has the talent to be Carolina’s franchise quarterback of the future. Nonetheless, he will face a tall task in trying to win his NFL debut.

Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) vs Minnesota Vikings (-6)

Tampa Bay is only two years removed from their Super Bowl championship trophy in 2020. The Buccaneers will feature a new look on the offensive side of the ball. Gone is Tom Brady after the 45-year-old retired after 23 seasons in the NFL. With Baker Mayfield taking over as the starter, the former first-overall pick inked a one-year deal with the franchise in the offseason.

Fresh off a 13-4 campaign a year ago, the Vikings won an incredible 11 one-possession games. Ultimately running out of luck in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, Minnesota was knocked off by the New York Giants. The franchise was forced to make multiple changes on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball during the offseason. They released running back Dalvin Cook while trading Za’Darius Smith to the Cleveland Browns. However, after adding rookie Jordan Addison in the draft to pair with Justin Jefferson, this should once again be one of the game’s most dynamic offenses, making it hard for Tampa Bay to keep up.

Pick: Vikings (-6)

Arizona Cardinals (+7) vs Washington Commanders (-7)

The Cardinals will be without quarterback Kyler Murray. He is still working his way back from a torn ACL. With Joshua Dobbs expected to be the team’s week 1 starter, Arizona made headlines across the league after releasing veteran Colt McCoy, leaving just Dobbs and Clayton Tune as the only two signal callers on the roster. 

Washington will turn to second-year man Sam Howell to open up the season. The North Carolina product will be the seventh different week 1 starter for the Commanders over the last seven years. Led by their wide receiver tandem of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, Washington is still loaded with playmakers. They should be able to cover the number against an Arizona team that is destined for a top-five pick in next year’s draft.

Pick: Commaders (-7)

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints (O/U 41)

With Sean Payton no longer with the Saints for the first time in 15 years, the team stumbled to a 7-10 finish in 2022. This was their first losing season in five years. Opting to extend contracts and push money down the table in the offseason, New Orleans inked Carr to a four-year $150 million contract. The franchise has high hopes for the nine-year veteran. He will have a strong group of weapons around him with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and tight end Juwan Johnson.

Tennessee failed to make the postseason for the first time in four seasons. They were once sitting at 7-3 following a week 11 win over the Green Bay Packers. However, the group lost their last seven games, including a week 18 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South division title. Opting to start Ryan Tannehill, the soon-to-be 35-year-old has seen a notable decline in play over the last two years. While the Titans could end up being at the bottom of the AFC South when it’s all said and done, expect Mike Vrabel to keep them competitive early on.

Pick: Over 41

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts (O/U 45)

Jacksonville was one of the hottest teams in the league during the second half of the season a year ago. Led by Trevor Lawrence, the former first overall pick completed nearly 68 percent of his passes while tossing 20 touchdowns to just seven interceptions from week 9 onward. This led the 23-year-old to earn a 90.0 grade from Pro Football Focus.

Indianapolis is still trying to find its long-term success after Andrew Luck retired in 2019. Turning to Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in April’s draft earned the nod over Sam Ehlinger and Gardner Minshew. While the rookie will have his work cut out for him without the services of Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor, expect the Colts to supply enough offense to push the total over the number.

Pick: Over 45

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