NFL Week 7 — Free NFL Picks ATS and Best Bets (2023)

In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 7 of the NFL season. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Can you believe we are already through six weeks of the 2023 NFL season? I feel like it goes by quicker and quicker each year. To start off, I want to salute Jim Schwartz for his work in helping transform Cleveland Brown’s defense into the most dominant unit in the league. Fresh off their 19th rank league-wide in 2022, the 57-year-old has his group on a historic pace through the first month and a half. The Browns defense has allowed 1,002 yards total all season, the lowest number through five games in over 50 years. They lead the league in passing yards allowed per game (121.4), opponent completion percentage (51.88), and third down conversion rate (23.88).

If you need any more convincing about how well the former Detroit Lions head coach has his crew playing, look no further than this past Sunday afternoon. Without Deshaun Watson in their game against the high-powered San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland held Kyle Shanahan and company to just 17 points, allowing them to pull off the shocking upset.

Harassing Brock Purdy all afternoon, they held the 23-year-old to 125 yards through the air while also intercepting him for the first time. Now, holding onto the seventh seed in the AFC, Schwartz’s defense is carrying an injury-riddled Cleveland team, hoping to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2020. Looking to rebound off a 2-4 week, here are the picks.

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Atlanta was hoping to build off its win over the Houston Texans. Instead, it was another frustrating day for Desmond Ridder and the offense. Once again hampered by turnovers, the 24-year-old threw three interceptions for the second consecutive week, including one by Benjamin St. Juste late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory for the Washington Commanders.

Losers of two of their last three games after jumping out to a quick 3-0 start, the Buccaneers have slowly begun to come back to earth. Held to just six points by the surging Lions a week ago, Aaron Glenn’s defense hit and harassed Baker Mayfield all afternoon. They held the former number-one pick to just 251 yards through the air while also sacking him once. Nonetheless, the Falcons run game has struggled to get going over the last few games. Expect Tampa Bay to slow down the tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgier and force Ridder into multiple mistakes.

Pick: Buccaneers (-2.5)

Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)

This is the matchup of the week in the early window. The red-hot Lions will aim to keep improving on their best start in over a decade against the Ravens. Knocking off Tampa Bay a week ago, Jared Goff shined. Without his two starting running backs after David Montgomery left in the second quarter with a rib injury and with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs out with a hamstring, the former number-one pick completed 30 of his 44 passes for 353 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown bounced back after being sidelined the week before with an abdominal ailment. The one-time Pro Bowler caught 12 passes for 124 yards and a score.

Baltimore hung on against the stingy Tennesee Titans in a 24-16 victory in London. Struggling mightily in the red zone, the team had multiple possessions stall out deep in their opponent’s territory. This led to six Justin Tucker field goals. Continuing to play well on the defensive side of the ball, the team had six sacks, including four on backup quarterback Malik Willis after Ryan Tannehill left the game with an ankle injury. With Goff having trouble on the road throughout his career, expect Baltimore’s defense to get pressure on him in this one.

Pick: Ravens (-3)

Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Los Angeles had a glorious chance to knock off the Dallas Cowboys and pick up a signature win. However, the Chargers came up empty once again after falling 20-17. Receiving one last opportunity to send the game into overtime after Mike McCarthy’s team took the lead late on a Brandon Aubrey field goal, Stephon Gilmore picked off Justin Herbert to seal the victory.

Continuing to win in ugly fashion, Kansas City got past the lowly Denver Broncos 19-8. Still trying to figure things out on offense, they converted just one of their five red zone trips. Meanwhile, the Chief’s defense continued their brilliant stretch of play. Bottling up Russell Wilson all game long, the group held him to 95 yards passing while not surrendering any points until the fourth quarter. Even so, all three losses by the Chargers this season have come by one possession. Moreover, the last two games in this matchup have each been decided by one score. Take points and roll with Los Angeles.

Pick: Chargers (+5.5)

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Miami looked to be on upset alert early on against the Carolina Panthers. The Dolphins fell behind 14-0 early on after Bryce Young found Adam Thielen for an eight-yard touchdown strike. Eventually coming to life, Tua Tagovailoa and company scored 35 straight points to cruise to their fifth victory and stay atop the AFC East. They are now averaging nearly 500 yards of offense per game through the first six weeks. This is the second-highest mark in NFL history behind Kurt Warner and the 2000 “Greatest Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams.

Aiming to rebound after their first loss of the season, the Eagles fell to the New York Jets for the first time in franchise history in the upset of week 6. They appeared well on their way to victory after jumping out to a quick 13-0 lead. Robert Saleh’s defense stiffened up in the second half. Without their two starting cornerbacks, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the group shut out Philadelphia over the game’s final 30 minutes. Also, New York forced Jalen Hurts into three interceptions, including one by safety Tony Adams to set up the eventual game-winning eight-yard touchdown scamper by Breece Hall.

Philadelphia should be fired up to shake off their loss to Zach Wilson and company and get back in the win column to keep pace with San Francisco for the top spot in the NFC. With a decided advantage in the trenches, the Eagles defensive line will slow down Miami’s running game, allowing them to come away with the victory.

Pick: Eagles (-2.5)

Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts (O/U 41)

Cleveland pulled off one of the shockers of the season by knocking off the previously unbeaten 49ers. Without both Watson and starting running back Nick Chubb, the Browns overcame a shaky start by backup quarterback P.J. Walker, thanks to another strong effort by their defense. After allowing a long touchdown drive to begin the game, Schwartz’s group forced four 3-and-outs over the following 12 drives by San Francisco while also intercepting Purdy.

Now under the guidance of Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis handed the 27-year-old the reigns following the news that Anthony Richardson was undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Stumbling in his return to Jacksonville a week ago, Minshew turned the ball over four times. He threw three interceptions directly to multiple defenders while also being strip-sacked by Josh Allen. As a result, in a game that could feature two backup quarterbacks, lean on the under in this one.

Pick: Under 41

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (O/U 44.5)

Arizona has been one of the feel-good stories around the league through the first month and a half. Playing hard under head coach Jonathan Gannon, they upset the Cowboys while nearly knocking off the New York Giants. Nevertheless, they are beginning to come back to life. The Cardinals have been outscored 37-6 in the second half over the last two games. Along with this, Joshua Dobbs has struggled with inaccuracy and untimely giveaways.

Seattle is coming off a bye in week 6. The team was left with an ugly taste in its mouth following a 17-13 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Unable to finish off drives, they went 1-5 inside the red zone. Geno Smith tossed two interceptions while taking multiple sacks. The Seahawks are returning to Lumen Field for the first time in three weeks. With too many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, count on them to get right in front of their home fans.

Pick: Over 44.5

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