2022 Vacated Targets and Air Yards
In fantasy football, we all know that volume and opportunity are two massive factors for predicting fantasy success. Targets and air yards are two fairly significant factors you want your pass-catchers to see a good amount of. Obviously, targets equate to receptions, yards, and touchdowns which equate to fantasy points. As for air yards, some people don’t love the stat, but personally, I like to use it.
Air Yards
Simply put, if your pass-catchers are seeing a significant amount of air yards, it means they are being targeted. Whether those passes are completed or not, you’re still seeing the quarterback target that particular player. That’s all you can really ask for regarding volume and fantasy production.
“Because the depth of the route is completely in the hands of the receiver, and the longer the throw the lower the YAC and catch rate, it makes sense that depth of target—air yards—is an incredibly powerful way to understand receiver performance.” @friscojosh
All of these first four teams lost their WR1 over the off-season. Obviously, when that happens, you’re going to have some opportunity that comes about, and on top of that, you’ve got the Chiefs and Packers to top the list off. That’s two quarterbacks who both have a case to be made for being the best quarterback in the NFL.
A Grain of Salt
Just like any other stat out there, vacated targets and air yards are far from the be-all or end-all. There isn’t any one individual stat that predicts fantasy football production. Factors such as coaching changes, age, personnel, and many other different factors can be used to help predict and project as you look forward. Personally, I like vacated targets and air yards as two helpful stats just from doing some research throughout the years.
Take these with a grain of salt and feel free to use them or interpret them however you’d like. Here are the teams with the most vacated targets to the wide receivers. These are some players to keep an eye out for as their opportunity bodes well based on vacated targets and air yards.
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Kansas City Chiefs
After losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, the Chiefs now have the most vacated targets to the wide receiver position with 265. This obviously should be great news for Travis Kelce as he’s already the best of the best. Yes, these are wide receiver vacated targets, but not much really needs to be said further about Kelce and his upside.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both come in as recently signed free agents, and will have the chance to step up. Rookie Skyy Moore will have arguably the best landing spot for any rookie wide receiver as he lands with Patrick Mahomes. Regardless of how you feel about Moore, he’s with Mahomes. Can you really get a better landing spot?
Green Bay Packers
With Davante Adams with the Raiders, there are obviously plenty of targets up for grabs in Green Bay. 244 to the wide receiver position to be exact. Allen Lazard will have an excellent opportunity as he’s spent the last four years with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Sammy Watkins is also in Green Bay and will probably have some big games here and there, but we know what he is.
Similar to the Chiefs with Moore, rookie Christian Watson lands in one of the best spots that a rookie could land in. There’s a reason they’re both going in the 1st Round in our Rookie ADP.
Tennessee Titans
For the Titans, losing AJ Brown opens up a bunch of targets as 233 are available to wide receivers. Speaking of the Eagles, it’s worth mentioning that the Eagles are currently the only team with zero available targets. Yes, Brown is elite and it might not matter, but it’s worth at least acknowledging when looking at stats such as this.
That really just leaves two potential options for the Titans offense. Veteran Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks. Woods might end up being a fantastic value this year as the most experienced and proven option. Burks will have a great chance to step in and immediately be one of potentially the most productive rookies this year.
Tennessee also has 61 vacated targets to the tight end position, which could make Austin Hooper someone who could see a decent role. If you’re punting the tight end position or streaming it, he may be a waiver wire or streaming option.
Baltimore Ravens
Next up is the Ravens who lost Marquise Brown on the 2022 NFL Draft night to the Arizona Cardinals. There’s 196 wide receiver targets available in Baltimore. Just when Brown was starting to look like he might not be a bust, he gets traded to the Cardinals, and once again, the Ravens will need someone to step up. The best candidate is going to be Rashod Bateman, who will be entering his second season this year. He’s quite clearly the most talented wide receiver on this roster and really, there just isn’t much of anyone else worth noting.
Also similar to the Chiefs, there are plenty of targets available and both of these teams have elite tight ends. Mark Andrews just finished as the TE1 overall last year and has been a TE1 in three-straight seasons. He’ll have a great chance to repeat as the TE1 overall.
It’s also worth noting that the Ravens have 70 vacated targets to the running back position. That’s the most in the NFL and could be great news for JK Dobbins, as someone who has breakout candidate written all over him. He’s an excellent runner and a very solid pass-catcher. I don’t expect Devonta Freeman to be back in Baltimore, who quietly saw 42 targets last year.
Las Vegas Raiders
Finally, the Raiders come in fifth on this list with 189 targets available to wide receivers. The Raiders may not have lost their WR1 like these previous four teams, but they do have a very nice number of targets up for grabs from losing a handful of random wide receivers.
Derek Carr and Adams have the chemistry from college and Adams has seen 149 and 169 targets in the last two seasons. He’s drawn 117 or more targets in every single season since 2016 and honestly, I’d expect him to get 120+ targets and crack 1,000+ yards without a problem.
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