The 2022 fantasy football season is in the books and the 2023 dynasty off-season is in full swing. It’s the time of the year to begin making trades and look ahead to next year and your upcoming rookie drafts. In most dynasty leagues, the off-season is when the most trades happen. While watching your team perform in season is exciting, the time leading up to the rookie draft is arguably the most interactive since there is nothing else to do but try and improve your roster. We’ve got the Senior Bowl, the NFL Combine, and the 2023 NFL Draft to look forward to.
Not all these players are necessarily “buy lows” or “sell highs” these are just the top players I’m looking to buy and sell this off-season. These are players who might have had disappointing seasons or were injured. Additionally, there are some players who may be out-performing themselves a bit. Overall, here are some players who you might want to buy or sell on your dynasty fantasy football teams this off-season.
Dynasty Buys
Treylon Burks
Wide Receiver – Tennessee Titans
Going into this 2023 off-season, one of the players I will be trying to buy a lot of shares of is Treylon Burks. This past season was a massive disappointment for Burks as he finished the year with an extremely underwhelming 8.6 PPG. However, this was partially not Burks fault, as even though he was supposed to step into one of the best situations of anyone in the rookie class, it quickly became one of the worst. Burks only played in 11 games this season and was rarely at 100%.
Nevertheless, Burks showed flashes in Weeks 11 and 12, scoring 18 and 17.1 points. Even so, many are quick to forget Burks’s talent and the fact that he was brought in to be the AJ Brown replacement. Burks had an ADP of 1.04 and was picked as the second receiver off the board. While I don’t necessarily agree with this, Burks has lost a ton of value due to some unfortunate circumstances.
As a prospect, Burks was phenomenal, checking almost every box you look for when evaluating a wide receiver. At Arkansas, Burks had tremendous receiving production (45.9%), draft capital (1.18), size (224 lbs), and speed (4.55) on top of having a second-year breakout and declaring early for the NFL Draft. Burks’ only concern was that Arkansas didn’t produce any other players with high draft capital. Regardless, Burks is a great player, and this doesn’t worry me very much.
I’m ready to chalk this season up as a disappointment due to injuries and the terrible quarterback play. While I’m not sure how long it will take for Burks to get a good quarterback, it can’t get any worse than Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs. Some players I would give up for Burks are George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore, and Joe Mixon.
All these players are ranked below Burks on Keep Trade Cut (KTC) except Pickens, who is six spots ahead. Burks is a fantastic talent who I’m going to be buying before he takes the next step in his sophomore season.
Deshaun Watson
Quarterback – Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson is a quarterback I’m looking to buy after he had a disappointing return in the 2022 season. Many people’s expectations for Watson were way too high and are now out on him after five games. Watson hadn’t played for two years, so seeing him struggle early on isn’t surprising. Regardless, after a full off-season season with the Browns, I expect Watson to find his groove and become the top-end player he once was.
Watson will get the opportunity to succeed as the Browns are highly invested in him. The Browns gave Watson the most guaranteed money ever, so it’s hard to imagine anyone else as the starter until 2027. As a result, this may be the cheapest you’ll ever be able to buy Watson, a top-five fantasy quarterback, before his suspension.
With the Texans In 2020, his last full season, Watson finished as the QB5 on a PPG basis scoring 27.1 points per game. On top of that, Watson was a phenomenal passer on a terrible Texans offense. Furthermore, Watson threw for 4,800 yards and 33 touchdowns while also running for 400 yards with three touchdowns.
The Browns have surrounded Watson with much better talent than the Texans. The Browns have weapons like Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku. Watson also has a great offensive line, as they were ranked 7th by PFF near the end of the season.
While Watson is ranked properly by KTC at 35, I would trade the 1.06 for Watson straight up. You’ll have to add a few other players, but I would love to add a small piece with Daniel Jones or Deebo Samuel to go and get Watson. I would also feel comfortable moving Trey Lance and Kenny Pickett cheaper 1-2 small assets. In the end, if you can get this kind of a deal for Watson, you should accept it, as I expect him to break out near the middle of the 2023 season.
Wan’Dale Robinson
Wide Receiver – New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson was one of the most intriguing prospects of this 2022 rookie draft class. Robinson has excellent draft capital as he was selected with the 42nd overall pick. Unfortunately, Robinson ended up playing in only six games and averaged a lackluster 8.6 PPG. In Week 11, Robinson showed out with a 19-point performance but then suffered a season-ending ACL injury during the same game.
Robinson was utilized when he got onto the field, as he had a 21.3% team target share. Even though this is a small sample size, it’s a good sign that the Giants want to use their 2nd Round draft pick. Even if the Giants bring in more wide receivers, I expect this to help Robinson. This is because Robinson is a slot receiver standing at 5’8. An alpha X wide receiver would help bring more overall passing volume to this offense, benefitting Robinson.
In the few games Robinson played, he has shown elite speed, deep-threat ability, and good route running. According to KTC, Robinson is ranked 119th overall and is the WR39.
Some players I would make a package deal with to acquire Robinson are Donovan Peoples-Jones, Darnell Mooney, Alec Pierce, and Romeo Doubs. The lowest ranked of these three is Doubs at 134, so none of these players are too far off in value from Robinson. The best way to acquire Robinson would be to create a small package around one of the players mentioned above.
Khalil Herbert
Running Back – Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert is a fantastic talent but has been overshadowed by his terrible offense and the fact that he’s playing alongside David Montgomery. However, Montgomery’s contract is up this off-season, and there is a decent chance that the Bears will choose not to extend him, as he is about to turn 26. The Bears have the number one overall pick and are in rebuild mode, so it doesn’t make much sense to pay an aging running back when you have a solid replacement behind him. Herbert has shown a lot of promise and the Bears have much more concerning needs than just the running back position.
Furthermore, Herbert is a talented running back who has produced very well in Montgomery’s absence. Montgomery hasn’t missed a lot of time this year, but when he went down in week three, Herbert was phenomenal with a 30.9-point performance. Besides this one big game, Herbert’s ceiling was extremely limited, as he only averaged 9.1 PPG on the season. Even if Herbert becomes the starter next year, some of his volume will be taken away by Justin Fields, one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league.
In spite of all this, if Montgomery isn’t re-signed, Herbert looks to be a mid-RB2 with RB1 upside if everything works out. The Bears have been one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and their offense can only get better next season.
In order to trade for Herbert, I would give up the same players as previously mentioned. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Darnell Mooney, Alec Pierce, or Romeo Doubs, plus a small piece. I would love to buy him relatively low, but out of my buy list, Herbert is the player I would give up the least to acquire.
Dynasty Sells
Brock Purdy
Quarterback – San Francisco 49ers
Even though everyone loves the story of Brock Purdy, he’s a glaringly obvious sell-high candidate. Many people will disagree because Purdy has produced very well this season. Conversely, Purdy has some obvious holes in his profile.
For one, Purdy has the worst draft capital you can find, as he was the last pick in the NFL Draft. While many will say that he deserved to be taken much higher, I’m going to let the NFL scouts make this decision for me. It’s possible they undervalued Purdy but by no stretch of the imagination should he ever have gone before the fifth round. Purdy was not great in college, with a ton of weaknesses on his film.
To debunk the comparison of Tom Brady and Brock Purdy, the two have very different backgrounds. Brady was drafted in a much different age of quarterbacks. If you go back and watch the tape on Brady, he was a solid passer. The difference is that Brady’s horrible athleticism outweighed his passing skills to the point where he dropped to the 6th round.
On the other hand, Purdy has no awful traits except possibly his bad decision-making and was average all around. While Purdy has looked excellent, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the 49ers have the best weapons in all of football. It’s quite possible that Purdy is carried by his surrounding talent and will be shut down when defensive coordinators have more tape on how to stop him. Unless Purdy wins the Super Bowl, it is unlikely the 49ers will turn away from their former number three overall draft pick, Trey Lance.
The 49ers have already invested a ton into Lance, and unless Purdy wins a Superbowl, I don’t see why Lance wouldn’t be the starter next year. Some potential trades I’ve seen surrounding Purdy are a late first, Cam Akers, Rashod Bateman, or even Geno Smith. These trades are not all one-for-one, but Purdy for one of these four players plus another small piece is achievable. If you can get trade leverage out of Purdy before his Cinderella run is over, I suggest doing so.
Austin Ekeler
Running Back – Los Angeles Chargers
Even though my next sell of the off-season is Austin Ekeler, this is based on what stage your team is at. If you’re a contender for next season, I would not be trying to move Ekeler because I still believe he will give you fantastic production for the next year or two. On the other hand, if your team is going into a rebuild, I would sell Ekeler before his price drops after next season. Ekeler is a phenomenal running back, but he will be 28 next season.
This is the historical drop-off rate of a running back, so it’s smart to sell Ekeler to a contender before his value is diminished in the next few years. For the time being, Ekeler is a phenomenal player, as he was the RB1 in fantasy football and my 2022 Fantasy Football MVP. There isn’t much more to say about Ekeler as a player; the decision to sell him is more so based on the volatility and short career of the position.
According to KTC, Ekeler has a rank of 38. Based on your roster, some guys I would center an Ekeler trade around are TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, or a 2023 mid-first-round pick. Based on your roster construction, some of these players are better fits than others. My favorite move, even if you aren’t in full rebuild mode yet, is to sell Ekeler for a first-round pick. This way, you get guaranteed value for the future instead of holding on to an aging running back whose value will only go down.
Josh Jacobs
Running Back – Las Vegas Raiders
Another running back I’m looking to sell from his current market price is Josh Jacobs. With this in mind, you don’t have to be looking to sell Jacobs as actively as the rest of these players. This is because Jacobs is still a great talent who only turns 25 next season. Even so, he looks to regress after a phenomenal year, and if you can ship him off at his market price on KTC (39), I would do so.
For one, it is historically proven that running backs going into contract years have a much better chance of producing due to the high workload they receive. However, after they sign an extension, they are not used in the same manner they once were, which drops their production. To make matters worse, Jacobs is in a terrible situation with the Raiders and will either sign an extension with the team, be franchise tagged, or be signed elsewhere through free agency. This Raiders offense is an absolute mess after finishing the season 6-11, and now they have to deal with Derek Carr leaving.
While Jacobs could be solid next season, getting even close to his 2022 stat line will be hard. In a bad situation with less volume, it’s hard to see Jacobs coming close to averaging 19.3 PPG and finishing as the RB3 on the year. Additionally, the question marks regarding his contract and the future of this Raiders offense as a whole, are all up in the air.
Jacobs is ranked one spot lower than Ekeler, so I have the same targets of TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, or a 2023 mid-first-round pick. However, I feel less pressure to move Jacobs as he has a solid future ahead of him. With that said, I am comfortable taking these assets with a much higher chance of increasing in value, whereas Jacobs will likely lose value next season.
Isiah Pacheco
Running Back – Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco was one of the biggest surprises this year as he overtook former 1st Round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the starting running back halfway through the season. Being the alpha back in the Chief’s offense is one of the best situations in fantasy football. If you’re in a top-five offense, that boosts your ceiling and raises your touchdown upside dramatically. While Pacheco was a very good runner, he was much better in real life than by fantasy football standards.
Despite reaching 830 rushing yards in nine starts, Pacheco was not involved in the passing game and averaged a disappointing 7.9 PPG. On top of the inability to catch the ball, there is a high chance that Pacheco won’t be the alpha back next year. Although Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire are the only two running backs under contract, this 2023 running back class is filled with a ton of talent between free agency and the draft. Pacheco is not guaranteed a job because, as we’ve seen time and time again, draft capital matters at the running back position.
In years past, we’ve seen the same thing happen to players like James Robinson and Michael Carter. Pacheco is a 7th-round pick, so it is unlikely that the Chiefs will be willing to invest in him for the long term. Instead, there is an extremely high chance that the Chiefs go out there and sign 1-2 more solid running backs, turning this backfield into a committee. All that being said, I would sell Pacheco for a reasonable price this off-season before the Chiefs make any moves.
According to KTC, Pacheco is ranked 104th overall. Some assets ranked behind Pacheco that I would base a trade around are a 2023 mid-second round pick, a 2024 early second-round pick, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Moore, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. While Pacheco had an excellent real-life season, I would sell him for any of these assets due to the massive risk that he could be replaced in the off-season.
Trending Now
Dynasty Content
Connect and Engage with the Show:
- Subscribe on YouTube
- Visit us on the Web
- Follow us on Facebook
- Follow on Twitter
- Subscribe on Apple Podcasts
- Follow on Instagram
- Subscribe on Google Podcasts
- Subscribe on Spotify
