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5 Breakout Candidates for Fantasy Football (2024)

- by Dave Ventresca

5-Breakout-Candidates-for-Fantasy-Football-2024

The NFL offseason news cycle has been on fire so far this year. There have been big names seemingly on the move each day. Additionally, we saw several key players join new teams in the recent free agent news. While we should kick our feet up and enjoy all the news and drama, we should also be keeping tabs on potential breakout players for 2024. Join us today as we break down 5 potential breakout candidates for the upcoming 2024 fantasy football season.

5 Breakout Candidates for Fantasy Football

It’s never too early to start planning for the upcoming fantasy football season. One of the best ways to get a jump on your fantasy opponents is by correctly identifying which players are set up for breakout years. Nailing a breakout pick can lead you to that long eluded championship trophy.

Make sure you follow Faceoff Sports Network on X (@FFFaceoff) and check out Faceoff Sports Network for all your fantasy football needs. With that said, let’s examine five early breakout players for the 2024 NFL season.

Garrett Wilson WR New York Jets

We are going right back to the well on this one. A popular breakout pick last year, Garrett Wilson’s 2023 was derailed when quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles tendon that ended his season.

Full disclosure, I had Wilson listed as one of my breakout picks last year. In my 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook for Wilson, I wrote “We really can’t overstate the type of upgrade Wilson is getting compared to the abomination of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Chris Streveler. Rodgers is a penthouse suite compared to the outhouse that was the Jets 2022 quarterback room.”

Unfortunately for Wilson and I, Rodgers’ injury turned that outhouse into a full-blown septic tank eruption.

As a result, Wilson went from a WR21 finish in 2022 to a WR26 finish last year. He was a disappointment relative to expectations and where he was taken in drafts.

Despite all that, Wilson’s advanced metrics were still strong. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Wilson had a 25% Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) and a 27% Target Share. Both these marks were better than what he posted as a rookie in 2022.

The breakout case for Wilson remains simple. He has managed to eclipse 80 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving despite horrific quarterback play in each of his first two seasons. Ultimately, he is still a very talented player.

Reinsert a future Hall of Fame quarterback in the mix and Wilson is once again set to explode in 2024. This time, we just need all parties involved to remain healthy.

Rashee Rice WR Kansas City Chiefs

While he flashed early in his rookie season, the Chiefs were committed to bringing Rashee Rice along slowly. He showed glimpses he could be a powerful weapon for Kansas City.

Following their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs fully turned him loose. From this point on, Rice averaged nearly nine targets per game. Additionally, he averaged 7.8 receptions and 93 receiving yards per game during this stretch. This would have put Rice on a 148 target, 114-1360-7, 17-game pace. Needless to say, those are pretty good numbers for fantasy football.

Additionally, Rice’s advanced metrics put him in some truly elite company. He checked in with an impressive 2.62 Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) per Fantasy Points Data Suite. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 14th highest-graded in 2023. Rice also ranked 22nd in our 2023 Consistency Score among all receivers. Not a bad mark considering he did not become a focal point of the offense until Week 11.

The point is, this is a talented player. It’s not a stretch to expect even better results with more playing time in 2024.

Recently, the Chiefs did add veteran receiver Marquise Brown in free agency. He does present new target competition. However, given their vastly different skill sets, this shouldn’t present much of an issue. Brown is expected to work more downfield as a vertical threat. This would continue to allow Rice to work in the shallow and intermediate areas of the field.

Furthermore, Rice is already a good zone coverage beater but has some work to do against man coverage. We’ve seen Amon-Ra St. Brown produce for fantasy in such a role for the Detroit Lions while he has continued to improve other areas of his game. Rice can do the same. Keep in mind, we are not comparing Rice to St. Brown. However, we’re just pointing out there is a path to produce massive fantasy football numbers despite having some blemishes.

Some flaws in Rice’s game could limit his overall ceiling. However, it’s not a bad idea to bet on a year-two breakout with a receiver tied to Patrick Mahomes.

Anthony Richardson QB Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson struggled with injuries during his rookie year. He would only play in four games as a result. Richardson also left two of those four games early due to injury. It was a real struggle for him to stay on the field.

However, the few times Richardson did finish a game, he displayed big-time upside.

In both contests he started and finished, Richardson scored 33.6 and 23.92 fantasy points for an average of 28.76 fantasy points per game.

At that pace, Richardson would have finished as the overall QB1 last year. We should not expect these types of numbers for 2024 as we’re basing things on an extremely small sample size. It does, though, give us an idea of the ceiling Richards provides drafters.

Given all the injuries he suffered last year, it is fair to wonder if his body will hold up for 17 games. He may eventually need to change his style of play. In fairness, we need to wait more than one season before making such a call.

Ultimately, Richardson offers Konami code upside at the position due to his rushing prowess. A top-five finish is within reach. With a little luck, we could even get an overall QB1 season. Richardson just needs to stay healthy to give us a chance.

Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons

For as bad as the quarterback play the aforementioned Wilson has had to endure, Drake London has arguably had to put up with worse.

During his first two years, London has had to deal with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and a mustached bandit calling offensive plays. It would be hard-pressed for any receiver to produce under these circumstances. Let alone when their play caller is scheming up plays for a backup tight end and their fifth wide receiver over the player chosen eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.

While there will be some who point to his underlying data as a red flag, this is a case where we need to take all of that with a grain of salt. Advanced metrics are great and should never be completely ignored, but there are instances where they can be misleading.

All things considered, we need to remember that London is a very good player.

London now gets a massive quarterback upgrade with Kirk Cousins signing a four-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons. There is also a new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, in town. Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple and comes from a system where they traditionally hyper-target their top receiving options. These all bode very well for London’s 2024 outlook.

With a complete offensive overhaul, we can expect London to put up career highs across the board in 2024. He becomes a very easy third-year breakout call.

James Cook RB Buffalo Bills

James Cook enjoyed a career year in 2023. He took over as the Bills clear lead back and eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing for the first time as a pro. Cook also finished ninth in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) and 10th in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT).

He was money for fantasy football owners down the stretch as he finished as the overall RB12. One can make the case he already broke out, but there may be room for even more in 2024.

Buffalo made a change at offensive coordinator after a Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos. They chose quarterbacks coach Joe Brady as the man to take over the offense. From that point on, Cook would receive an average of 19.5 touches per game. That would put him on a 332-touch pace over a 17-game season.

It’s salivating to think what Cook could be capable of achieving over a full season with this kind of workload. Averaging a career 5.0 yards per carry and 9.6 yards per reception, Cook could be set to feast in 2024. Brady is back as the Bills play-caller, so it stands to reason they will maintain the same style of play/usage that worked for them when he took over last year.

Cook’s main competition for playing time, Latavius Murray, is no longer on the roster.  Buffalo could select another running back in April’s draft. However, given all the losses this team sustained in free agency, it’s more likely they use their draft capital to replace other needs.

The one bugaboo for Cook so far has been touchdowns. He has only scored four rushing touchdowns through two seasons as a pro. Murray scored four touchdowns last year in his role with the team. These opportunities would most likely go to Cook.

The bigger touchdown threat for Cook lies with quarterback Josh Allen. With a career 53 rushing touchdowns, Allen is Buffalo’s true goal line back. It’s fair to wonder how much longer Buffalo can continue using their $43 million-a-year quarterback in this role. As things stand now, any goal line touches that are taken off Allen’s plate would default to Cook. If he can poach even four to five touchdowns from Allen, Cook can deliver a special season.

Cook is currently set up to see an increase in volume. That alone will help his fantasy stock. If he can find a way to become the Bills’ goal line back, then he can be a top-five fantasy football running back.

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About Dave Ventresca

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