5 Fantasy Football Busts & Players To Avoid (2024)

Fantasy Football is like the game of poker. Players can spend hours mastering the various strategies and skills needed to play the game. However, all of that could be undone in seconds if your opponent gets extremely lucky at the right moment and sucks out on you on the river. It’s devastating watching them rake in the pot when you know you did everything right, and it was simply Lady Luck that got the best of you.

5 Fantasy Football Busts For 2024

In Fantasy Football, bad beats come in the form of garbage time touchdowns, untimely injuries, or studs that are just plain busts.  The unpredictable nature of our fake game is what makes it so entertaining, but also so frustrating. After your hours of research and hard work, it could all be gone like that. Here are five players that you may consider tossing in the muck this year.

DJ Moore – WR, Chicago Bears

Last year, DJ Moore put up career highs in receptions (96), yards (1,364), and touchdowns (9), which includes his first-ever rushing score. Moore finished as the overall WR6 in PPR scoring, crushing his ADP of WR25 during the draft season. As the ’23 season came to a close, his 2024 outlook was looking like he could make a leap into the elite category of WR1s. But that gap widened greatly as the Bears’ offseason progressed.  In the span of 48 hours, the Bears acquired RB D’Andre Swift, TE Gerald Everett, and veteran WR Keenan Allen.

The Swift signing might not seem like a red flag for Moore, but if you look at his production, Swift has proven to be a very capable pass-catching back, averaging nearly 49 receptions a season. Everett is no slouch in the passing game either, providing his quarterbacks with a big body to target in the middle of the field. The biggest bane to Moore, though, is Allen.

Even though he is entering his age-32 season, Allen has shown no signs of slowing down. He is coming off of his own stellar ’23 campaign, finishing as the WR8 overall. Moore flourished in his undisputed WR1 role for Chicago, but with another alpha coming to town, Moore will be hard-pressed to repeat his numbers from last year.

Repeating is rendered even more unlikely after Chicago traded away Moore’s BFF Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2025 conditional 6th-round pick. There are a lot of mixed feelings in the football community about Fields and whether he can be a legit franchise quarterback. But regardless of the chatter, no one can deny that Fields and Moore had a very real connection, one that helped Moore put up his career highs. With that connection severed, and a rookie quarterback, most likely Caleb Williams, rolling into town, Moore will have to start all over again with yet another quarterback.

With the loss of his QB, the addition of more-than-relevant offensive weapons, a rookie coming in to command the offense, and a change in the Offensive Coordinator (Shane Waldron), Moore has a lot of obstacles to overcome to return value on his WR10 best ball ADP.  He is firmly in the category of a potential bust candidate.

Austin Ekeler – RB, Washington Commanders

If you were an Austin Ekeler fantasy manager last year, this take should come as no surprise. Ekeler easily had the worst year of his career as a full-time starter for Los Angeles. It was painful to watch him plod along for a career-low 3.5 YPC and hit paydirt a measly 6 times after spiking it 38 times in his previous two years.

Now he takes that negative momentum to Washington to join Brian Robinson Jr. and Marcus Mariota in the backfield. Robinson has already proven to be a reliable early-down runner, and Mariota is a far cry in talent from Ekeler’s former teammate Justin Herbert. Defenses will have no problem stacking the box and making Mariota beat them through the air. Ekeler was already RB33 in yards before contact last season, and regardless of whether it’s Mariota or a rookie under center, Ekeler will not find running room easy to come by in 2024.

Ekeler is already in freefall mode after careening off the fantasy-relevant, RB age cliff of 28; he’ll be 29 when he reports to OTA’s this spring. His age, his declining ability, a worthy backfieldmate, a new system, and an inept/rookie quarterback, all combined are a recipe for a bust if I’ve ever seen one. As much as it pains me to say it because he’s a rare, pro-fantasy football, current NFL player, and an all-around good guy, I won’t be taking a chance on him this season.

Justin Herbert – QB, Los Angeles Chargers

From one disappointing Charger to another, Justin Herbert‘s 2023 campaign ended prematurely thanks to a fractured right index finger he suffered against Denver in Week 14. It was probably for the best though since he was on pace to put up career lows in completion percentage and passing yards. Still, there’s a lot of excitement and optimism in Los Angeles after they secured National Championship-winning Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. He brings a winning culture to a team that feels cursed with its history of postseason shortcomings.

But this is where real NFL and fantasy diverge; Harbaugh might get them to play winning football, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to fantasy glory for Herbert. Harbaugh, and new Chargers OC Greg Roman, have a propensity for the ground-and-pound which won’t ask Herbert to chuck the ball 600+ times like he’s done the last few years. Los Angeles has ranked 6th, 2nd, and 5th respectively over the last three years in passing rate. That number is sure to come down under the new regime.

To make matters worse, Herbert’s supporting cast has exited stage left, leaving nothing but understudies and stand-ins. The aforementioned Ekeler is now with Washington, Everett, and Allen have moved on to Chicago to ruin Moore’s day, and Mike Williams has signed with the New York Jets. This leaves Herbert with an unproven Donald Parham, the oft-injured Will Dissly, the exceptionally average Josh Palmer, and 2023’s frontrunner for Bust of the Year, Quentin Johnston.

The Chargers replaced the aging veteran Ekeler with the aging veteran Gus Edwards (29 in April) to lead the backfield, and they’ll probably make a splash at wide receiver in free agency or the draft. Regardless of who comes to town, Herbert has his work cut out for him if he’s going to put up numbers anywhere close to what he has to start his young career. My bet is against Herbert returning top-end QB1 value. Tread lightly with the young gun.

DeAndre Hopkins – WR, Tennessee Titans

Hopkins is another player whose arrow was already pointing down at the end of last year before offseason transactions came rolling in. A glance at his overall stat line (75-1057-7) might not appear like a down year, but he was more of a disappointment for fantasy than a contributor. He only surpassed the century mark receiving three times all year, and three of his seven touchdowns came in one of those 100-yard efforts. Three of his four other scores salvaged what were otherwise subpar stat lines.  If you were a Hopkins owner like I was, you felt the frustration.

Heading into 2024, Hopkins dynasty managers are looking to Will Levis to reinvigorate their excitement for the 11-year vet. That is not a horse I want to hitch my wagon to. Levis burst onto the scene in Week 7 with a 238-yard, 4-TD effort, but failed to replicate anything close to that the rest of the way. Only once did he eclipse an 87 QBR after that. I acknowledge this was his rookie year and the maturation process is underway, but I have a hard time envisioning him making a substantial year two leap that will make Hopkins a fantasy stud.

For one, Levis won’t have Derrick Henry to rely on anymore to be the engine of the offense. That honor has been bestowed upon Tony Pollard, the man who underwhelmed greatly when thrust into the RB1 role in Dallas. Tyjae Spears will be on hand to help, but neither back can replace Henry’s presence and physicality. The Titans also went out and paid Calvin Ridley a 4-yr $92m deal to be an integral piece in the offense. Ridley was a bust in every sense of the word for the Jaguars, but the money tells you Tennessee and new HC Brian Callahan have faith he can contribute.

Instead of Hopkins resuming his alpha dog WR1 role for a run-first offense, he’ll now be battling for targets with Ridley, a healthy Treylon Burks, and a reliable Chigoziem Okonkwo, for a run-first offense. Tennessee is projected to be one of the worst offenses in the league this year, and that’s not a situation I want to be tied to when I’m investing mid-round picks on core starters. I have no problem passing on Hopkins and letting someone else ride that rollercoaster. I’d like to keep my lunch right where it is, thank you.

Jordan Addison – WR, Minnesota Vikings

If it weren’t for Puka Nacua putting up a historic rookie season, the buzz around Jordan Addison would have been much stronger. His 70-911-10 line was good enough to make him second in PPR points (to Nacua) for rookie wide receivers in 2023. Much of that production, however, came largely at the expense of Justin Jefferson‘s hamstring, knocking him out for a 7.5-game stretch midseason. TJ Hockenson also missed time at the end of the year, opening up more opportunities for the Vikings’ rookie. Addison scored 5 of his 10 TDs when Jefferson or Hockenson were not on the field.

When Addison runs routes this year, he’ll look back and see a whole new backfield. The Kirk Cousins era in Minnesota has ended, as does the pass-happy gameplan they’ve employed, ranking top 3 in pass rate the last two years. Addison will be looking longingly at Sam Darnold to get him a catchable ball, the same Sam Darnold who is currently sporting the worst completion percentage (59.7%) and passer rating (78.3), and fourth-lowest touchdown percentage (3.48%) among active NFL quarterbacks. If it’s not Darnold, it’ll be an unproven rookie slinging it.

Addison will also see Aaron Jones lined up in the backfield, replacing Cam Akers and usurping Ty Chandler for primary ballcarrier duties. HC Kevin O’Connell will look to utilize Jones’ power-running style to relieve pressure off of Darnold or some rookie. Jefferson is elite enough to overcome bad quarterback play and a lower pass percentage, but it’s no sure thing that Addison can. He had mixed results dealing with Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall, especially when Jefferson and Hockenson were healthy.

Sure Hockenson will miss the start of the regular season, but I still don’t like Addison’s chances with the way this offense is shaping up. A lot can change between now and fantasy draft season, but at this time, I’m not betting on Addison having a top-24 season like he enjoyed in ’23. He’ll need to make the most of his limited opportunities if he’s going to come close to his rookie numbers. If he drops far enough in fantasy drafts, he may be worth it, but if he goes in the top-24 range, you’re drafting him at his ceiling, and ignoring his low-end flex floor. I, for one, will pass.

The NFL Draft and training camps can change the landscape of fantasy dramatically, which is why you need to follow us @FFFaceoff and me @WSFilosofee for up-to-date news and analysis. We’ll be with you all throughout the offseason! 2024, here we come!

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