5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Players for 2023
When it comes to fantasy football drafts, we don’t hate players, but we hate ADP. Every year the fantasy landscape changes and we try to adjust from what we learned last season. Early drafters have taken advantage of early ADP data, largely thanks to the rise of best ball leagues. Then there are the drafters who come in with a magazine and draft with last-minute preparation.
Our friends over at Fantrax have a great fantasy football platform. While they have terrific values for players based on ADP, here are five I feel are overvalued at their current ADP.
*Player values based on Fantrax PPR ADP as of 8/9/23.
Jonathan Taylor ADP: 13.04 | RB5
Now this is the most obvious as Jonathan Taylor is holding out for a new contract. Not to mention he had a high ankle sprain early last season which lingered and required surgery. The once “sure-fire safe” running back isn’t looking so sure anymore. His hold-out would make more sense if he came close to matching his 2021 season. Yet, he fell pretty short not only with the injuries, but a depleted offensive line didn’t help.
Furthermore, he came nowhere near 2000 total yards, or his 20 total touchdowns. Although with the fall in ADP, it was making sense to take him at the end of the first round. But the holdout is enough for me to not even think of taking him anywhere near the beginning of the second round. I think this holdout could linger longer than expected. Give me CeeDee Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown instead at ADP.
D.K. Metcalf ADP: 32.77 | WR14
I’ve always been a fan of Metcalf. Last season he had 141 targets, the highest of his career. Yet, had his lowest (six) touchdown total. Now it’s hard to say he won’t be the target leader once again, but this team is looking different. Which in general could make it hard for Metcalf to return value.
I know we’re just a season removed from when he scored 12 touchdowns, but dropping down from double-digit to six touchdowns makes it hard to take him as a high-end WR2. Although, one positive to look at for Metcalf is we should expect an increase in touchdowns. Surprisingly, he had a career-high 23 end-zone targets last season, which seems weird with his total touchdown output.
Furthermore, let’s not forget too that the Seahawks spent a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Just another dagger to the wound. That being said, it’s highly unlikely that Metcalf earns the target share necessary to push him into the WR1 territory. His 24.08% target share, good for 17th amongst wide receivers last season, could be something lower than 20%. That alone would rank him as WR44 or later.
A concern I have here is how long will it be before Smith-Njigba becomes the WR1 on this team. I have no issue taking Metcalf as a WR2. However, I see him more as a low-end WR2 who should not be going in the third round but more in the fifth round. His ADP is too early here and I would rather take one of Smith-Njigba or Tyler Lockett later.
Drake London ADP: 53.75 | WR22
With the way London started out the season with 12.4 and 24.6 PPR points, we thought we had a WR1 in the making. However, with the inconsistencies of Marcus Mariota, London went on to finish as the WR31 per Fantasypros. With his 117 targets as a rookie, London made up for 51.3% of the targets on the Atlanta Falcons (228 attempts) passing game, the fifth-highest target share in the league.
Now, London has second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has some inconsistencies of his own. Last season Ridder had a lackluster 6.2 yards per attempt. Not only that, he also struggled to keep the rhythm of the passing game alive.
Of course, the return of Kyle Pitts and the addition of Bijan Robinson are sure to put a dent into London’s upside and volume. He’s too much of a gamble for me to take in early round five. I’ll pass on him and select Christian Watson or Jerry Jeudy.
George Kittle ADP: 55.83 | TE4
Don’t get me wrong here, Kittle is one of the most athletic tight ends. He’s coming off a career year in touchdowns (11), yet had his third-lowest amount of receiving yards (765) while appearing in 15 games. What really boosted him though was seven of those touchdowns came in the final four weeks. Prior to this hot streak, Kittle was TE8.
Furthermore, he also averaged 51 yards a game, again another low mark since his rookie year. So what gave him the end-of-season boost? The absence of Deebo Samuel. However, when Samuel was on the field, Kittle was third in the pecking order overall to end the season.
With this in mind, Christian McCaffrey was added to the team prior to Week 7. He saw 65 targets while Kittle saw 61 over that same time span. That there alone throws up a red flag.
Will Kittle see 11 touchdowns again? Probably not as his career-high was six prior to last season. As long as San Francisco’s pass catchers are healthy, Kittle is looking more like fourth in the pecking order with touchdown regression.
Now, Kittle will have his upside weeks, but I don’t want the headache of trying to figure that out in the sixth round with him. I’d rather wait and grab Darren Waller or Pat Freiermuth later in drafts.
Isiah Pcheco ADP: 72.17 | RB26
I was a fan of Pacheco last season as he had the Cinderella story. Being a seventh-round pick and had an uphill battle going up against former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Last season, we were drafting Edwards-Helaire as the low-end RB2 and now it’s Pacheco.
What we saw last season we should see again. The dreaded three-headed monster in this backfield of Pacheco, Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon. Although Pacheco led the team in attempts, yards, and touchdowns, he only had four games with 15 or more carries. It was McKinnon who was the RB1 of this backfield from Week 13 to Week 17.
Let’s also not forget the hype that UDFA Deneric Prince has been getting too while Pacheco recovers from hand and shoulder surgery. Overall, just too many question marks in this backfield. I was high on Edwards-Helaire last year. And while that looked good for the first six weeks, he fell off the cliff fast. All things considered, I like Pacheco, but with the way this offense runs, give me one of the other Kansas City backs later in drafts.
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