Beer Fueled 2022 Draft Primer: Under the Radar Rookies

The 2022 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and like most, we at the Beer Fueled Podcast are waiting to see where players land and what their draft capital and situation will look like. In this Beer Fueled 12 Pack, I take a look at six prospects flying under the radar I am hoping land well, and later I’ll talk about six prospects you should hope your team doesn’t draft.

Before getting started, I would like to give a brief overview of how I evaluate prospects. I fancy myself neither a film nor an analytics guy, but a carefully honed hybrid of both applying six years of knowledge and maybe some drunk intuition. Each year I start by evaluating a prospect’s physical makeup and college productivity to form a “Gate 1 Score”. This “Gate 1 Score” takes size, competition, age, single-season productivity, and career productivity into account. If you clear gate one based on a comparison to the last 10 years of NFL rookies, you qualify for a film session, if you don’t it’s off to Gate 2.

Gate 2 scores are applied post-NFL Combine and take into account things like dominator rating, breakout age, size-adjusted speed score, agility score, bust score…etc. Basically, if Player Profiler has it, it’s included in this evaluation. Those numbers are then compared to the same database of NFL players as Gate 1 which determines the Gate 2 score and if you qualify for a film session. Only players who qualify for a film session or mentioned in this article. Gate 3 scores do not apply to this article as those are applied post-draft.

Now, I have mentioned the film session a couple of times, so let’s provide some context to that. When watching the film I take a look at 2-3 games of college tape and rate players on several criteria which vary from position to position. Players are rated 1-5 with five being the highest and the film score is a percentage of total possible points (35 to 45 depending on position). TL;DR: I look at the size, college productivity (single-season and career), and film to decide if I like a dude or not. Now, onto the real reason you’re reading this. 

Bailey Zappe

QB, Western Kentucky – Film Score: 79.7 (2nd), Gate 1 Score: 13/21 (5th – T), Gate 2 Score: 3.5/7 (5th – T)

I want to start this off by saying I do not think Zappe will be elite, but what I do see is someone who could Gardner Minshew his way into starts, or Case Keenum his way to a journeyman role. Think Superflex/QB2 upside. Now that we have the appropriate drunk goggles on, let’s get into the good things.

Zappe has 43 college games under his belt and last year threw the ball 687 times while also having the second-highest completion percentage in this quarterback class. Zappe also threw for more yards than anyone in this class and tossed an absurd 62 TDs to only 11 interceptions. Productive would be an understatement. On film, Zappe showcased good eye discipline and worked through his reads while delivering the ball with solid timing and zip on intermediate throws. His deep balls were pretty and well placed and he loves football having played in a Bowl game instead of sitting out like those nonfootball-loving weenies. Zappe showed he can play with confidence and was athletic enough to scramble when the situation called for it which when combined with his productivity should allow him to stay on a roster.

Admittedly, there is limited upside for Zappe, especially in fantasy due to his limited athletic ability and burst. He will never have much of a rushing floor and he was a small school guy that will not fetch day one capital, hell he may not even get Day 2 capital, but if he lands in a spot without a solid quarterback situation, he could grab a job and hold onto it. In a shallow class, he’s worth the flyer.

Tyler Badie

RB, Missouri – Film Score: 72.88 (4th), Gate 1 Score: 15/18 (2nd – T), Gate 2 Score: 5/6 (2nd – T)

Tyler Badie gets no love and it is a crime. He is an SEC back who proved this season he can handle a bell cow load and be productive in both the running game and the passing game against high-level competition. For his career, he is one of just four guys in the class with over 100 receptions and his 9.1 yards per reception is top-five in the class for running backs with a minimum of 50 catches.

He was never used as much of a runner until this past year, but he proved he is capable there as well carrying the ball 268 times and rushing for 1,612 yards which was good for third in the class. His increased load as a runner didn’t hurt his work in the passing game either as he managed to snag a class best 54 receptions last season. That stat sheet screams potential bell cow in a league where true bell cows don’t really exist anymore.

On film, Badie shows he is a powerful runner that plays bigger than his 5’8 stature (don’t fear, the BMI checks out). He has good vision and churns with a quick change of direction and an ability to make guys miss. The big question marks around Badie are “Why did he sit behind Larry Rountree?” and “Does he have the breakaway speed to chunk big plays at the next level?” 

When I watch Badie I see a lot of Austin Ekeler in his game with maybe a touch of Maurice Jones-Drew. While he may not start immediately, if he gets Day 2 draft capital and goes to a team with an opportunity, everything says he can be a top 12 back in this league

Keaontay Ingram

RB, USC – Film Score: 69.77(8th), Gate 1 Score:  12/18 (4th — T), Gate 2 Score: (2nd — T)

Keaontay Ingram took advantage of the transfer rule changes brought on by COVID and moved from Texas to USC for his Senior season. While the numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping he did enough in both the receiving game and the rushing game to solidify himself as a guy that can do it all.

Where Ingram really popped is on the film side. Ingram is a reliable back who doesn’t take negative plays. He is decisive and tough to bring down as a runner, he is comfortable as a receiver, and he is a solid pass protector which should keep him on the field. He has the short-yardage ability and the ability to work outside if need be. The best way to describe him is not flashy, but a guy who does a lot of things well and should hang around on a roster because of that. While he lacks explosion he showcases grit. If NFL teams hold him in the same light he should be a piece you are targeting in your rookie drafts.

Rachaad White

RB, Arizona St – Film Score: 74.44 (4th), Gate 1 Score: 8/18 (11th), 5/6 (2nd — T)

The NFL Insider mock drafts don’t love Rachaad White, which likely means NFL teams don’t particularly love him. Despite that, and despite being a 23-year-old running back, I love White. Athletically, White put up a better burst score than Kenneth Walker and a speed score on par with Brian Robinson. From a production perspective, White rushed for over 1,000 yards in his final college season also hauling in 48 passes all while splitting time with two other running backs.

On film, White showed subtle twitch with an ability to create chunk plays on inside runs. Where he really shined was the open field proving tough to tackle with solid vision that allowed him to set up his blocks well and use his subtle twitch to make guys miss. Overall, White is a smooth patient runner with the ability to handle passes. He is good in short-yardage and the open field and has the makings of a three-down back if the opportunity is there. It will need to be immediate though and without draft capital, this take might need a bit of ice water. 

Jalen Tolbert

WR, South Alabama – Film Score: 75.71 (4th), Gate 1 Score: 14/14 (1st — T), Gate 2 Score: 4/6 (5th — T)

Everyone loves Jahan Dotson, but to me, Jalen Tolbert might be a better prospect. Tolbert is one of two wideouts to put up a perfect Gate 1 score, with Dotson being the other one. I like small school guys to dominate and that is exactly what Tolbert did. His 51.2 dominator rating is best in the class, his 3,140 career yards and 17.6 yards per reception are both second in the class and his 22 career touchdowns are good for a 5th place tie.

On a per-game basis, he had seven games with over 100 yards in 2021 and had zero games with less than 50 yards. So dominance? Yeah, he checks that box. On film Tolbert showcases some unique ways of getting open with easy agility, smooth speed, and the ability to win contested balls. His athletic numbers also support what the eyes see. He did struggle occasionally with drops, but he made up for it with some spectacular grabs as well.

The bottom line is Tolbert has all of the makings to be an NFL contributor with WR2 dynasty upside. Three years from now, if you tell me Tolbert is in a better position than guys like John Metchie, George Pickens, or even Dotson I will not be surprised, and leading up to the NFL Draft he’s virtually free in rookie mock drafts.

Khalil Shakir

WR, Boise State – Film Score: 68.57 (8th), Gate 1 Score: 13/14 (2nd — T), Gate 2 Score: 6/6 (1st) 

Most of the explosive slot guy love goes the way of Skyy Moore in this draft class, but Khalil Shakir is worthy of his own place in your heart. The 22-year-old senior checks in with good size for the slot, but the athleticism to play outside. He is also the only player in this class to notch a perfect Gate 2 score.

Production-wise, Shakir is one of six players in the class to catch 200 balls in his college career. He put up over 1,000 yards his Senior season hauling in 77 balls and was on pace for over 1,000 yards in the COVID shortened season. On film, Shakir has some Elijah Moore to his game. He is quick and agile with the ability to return kicks and work out of the backfield. He showed he can go full extension to make the spectacular play while also being a reliable source of YAC working over the middle utilizing his quick twitch.

The speed isn’t elite which may keep him inside at the NFL level and he doesn’t really showcase any elite traits, opting to be ‘very good’ pretty much across the board. The upside is that of guys like Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Lockett, and the floor might be Hunter Renfrow before his 2021 breakout year.  

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