Fantasy Football Ambiguous Backfields: AFC South
JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to create my own process and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.
His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.
I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.
These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.
(*The number behind the player’s name indicates the average draft position, per Sleeper)
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Houston Texans
- Dameon Pierce (113)
- Marlon Mack (198)
- Rex Burkhead (UDFA)
- Dare Ogunbowale (UDFA)
- Royce Freeman (UDFA)
- Darius Anderson (UDFA)
Marlon Mack
For the last three seasons, the Texans have been rolling out a geriatric crew of washed-up running backs. In 2019 it was Carlos Hyde (29), 2020 was David Johnson (29), and in 2021 it was Rex Burkhead (31). These backs managed to be semi-fantasy relevant on bad Texans teams, even in the twilight of their careers. Hyde finished 2019 with 1,112/6 (RB31), Johnson had 1,005/8 (RB21), and Burkhead (RB52), well he didn’t do much.
The Texans are on the upswing of a rebuild and just signed 26-year-old Mack to a one-year contract. Mack has the size and pass-catching chops to be a bell-cow in this offense. He was highly productive in college and has multiple 1,000-yard seasons under his belt in the pros. The big question mark surrounding Mack is if he still has the juice post-Achilles tear and the impact of rookie Dameon Pierce.
Mack is almost two years removed from the torn Achilles and has flashed in his limited touches since returning. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to see him in a larger role post-Achilles as he has been stuck behind Jonathan Taylor. The second obstacle Mack will face this season is the Texan’s early 4th-round pick, Pierce. I‘m a fan of Pierce (he’s crazy), but given his ADP (113) and the fact that he has yet to prove himself in the NFL, I think Mack is the running back to target at cost.
Mack is the best running back the Texans have had in years. Yet they have been able to squeeze RB2/3 seasons out of lesser talented backs each year. If Mack can take control of that backfield, he is a solid RB2 with upside.
Indianapolis Colts
- Jonathan Taylor (4)
- Nyheim Hines (186)
- Phillip Lindsay (UDFA)
- Deon Jackson (UDFA)
- Ty’Son Williams (UDFA)
- D’Vonte Price (UDFA)
- CJ Verdell (UDFA)
Nyheim Hines
Taylor is the truth. He is a complete running back that can do anything that is asked of him. But what if he misses time? That’s where Nyheim Hines comes into play.
Hines is a smaller running back but makes up for his size with his elite pass-catching. Hines displays his versatility by taking snaps in the backfield or lining up in the slot as a receiver. Throughout his career, he has averaged a 35% snap share which has limited his upside for fantasy purposes. However, when given the opportunity he has been a viable fantasy asset. Since 2020, in games where he has had over 55% snap share, Hines has had the following stats on a per-game basis:
- 15.25 Touches
- 90.5 All-purpose Yards
- 1.25 Total Touchdowns
- 4.23 Yards Per Attempt
- 21 PPR Points
Hines has had a minimum of 40 receptions per season, and in 2020 when he had 63 receptions he finished as the RB15.
If Taylor went down with an injury it would likely be a split backfield, but the rest of the Colts’ running back room is very uninspiring so Hines should see at least 60% of the snaps which is enough for him to be fantasy relevant.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Travis Etienne (52)
- James Robinson (139)
- Snoop Conner (236)
- Ryquell Armstead (UDFA)
- Nathan Cottrell (UDFA)
- Mekhi Sargent (UDFA)
Snoop Conner
In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars selected Travis Etienne to pair with his college quarterback, Trevor Lawrence. We didn’t get to see the duo in year one due to a Lisfranc injury Etienne suffered in the pre-season that kept him out the entire year.
Etienne’s injury allowed James Robinson to build off of his strong rookie season to the tune of 989/8 through 14 weeks. Unfortunately, that underdog story came to an end when Robinson tore his Achilles in late December of 2021. Achilles injuries can take 9-12 months or longer to come back from, and while Cam Akers did it in 5.5, he looked like a shell of his former self. It seems likely that 2021 was the last meaningful snaps Robinson will take as a Jaguar.
For these reasons, I think Conner is a great addition to your dynasty rosters. In his 2021 season at Ole Miss, Conner shared a backfield with Jerrion Ealy (133 att.) and Matt Corral (152 att.). In that season Conner had 130 attempts for 4.97 YPC and tallied a touchdown every 10 carries. Conner was selected in the 5th round of the 2022 NFL Draft and profiles as the “thunder” to Etienne’s “lightning”.
This off-season the Jaguars brought in former Eagles’ head coach, Doug Pederson. Since Pederson began calling plays in 2013, his teams have averaged 27 rushing attempts per game which is six more per game than the Jaguars had in 2021. Pederson’s rushing offense has typically taken a committee approach, so if we assume Etienne is completely healthy we can give him 70% of the snaps leaving Conner the other 30%. That 30% snap share gives Conner eight rushing attempts per game which is more than enough for him to be useful as a goal-line back. If Etienne isn’t fully healthy we could see an even closer split.
Conner is going undrafted in most rookie drafts and should be rostered in all dynasty leagues.
Tennessee Titans
- Derrick Henry (33)
- Hassan Haskins (182)
- Dontrell Hilliard (UDFA)
- Julius Chestnut (UDFA)
- Trenton Cannon (UDFA)
- Jordan Wilkins (UDFA)
Julius Chestnut
Derrick Henry is truly a king when he is on the football field, but last season showed the crown may be starting to rust. Injuries happen when you’re a 28-year-old workhorse that leads the league in carries. When King Henry starts to fall, Julius Chestnut will be waiting for the throne.
Chestnut is a 5’11, 225-pound running back out of Sacred Heart University. Chestnut was highly productive while at Sacred Heart. During his sophomore season in 2019, Chestnut had 1,723 total yards and 13 touchdowns. He only played five games in 2020 due to COVID, but over the course of five games, he had 1,026 total yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his 2021 season was shortened due to injury. Chestnut declared for the NFL Draft following his 2021 season and began training for his pro-day. At Chestnut’s pro-day he put on a show, running a 4.47/4.49 40-yard dash.
After going undrafted in 2022, Chestnut signed with the Tennessee Titans, where he has a chance to back up Henry. There has been buzz around OTAs that Chestnut has looked good on his runs and if he makes the 53-man roster, I believe he has the highest upside in the event of a Henry injury.
If his athletic profile and college production aren’t enough to convince you, at least add him because he has an elite name.
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