In this article, we cover our top free NFL picks against the spread and best bets for the week. As we head into Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season, we saw some big-time performances last Sunday. Brock Purdy threw for 252 yards and four touchdown passes in the San Francisco 49ers 45-29 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. In addition, we’ll give you our best bets of the week to target on your favorite sportsbook. Let’s win some money together.

Free NFL Picks – Week 16

Week 16 is upon us. Before we dive into this week’s picks, I would like to wish everyone a happy holiday. In the spirit of the holidays, if I had one Christmas wish for the rest of the NFL season, it would be for the Buffalo Bills to meet the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58. Once sitting at 5-5 with one of the league’s toughest schedules to close out, Sean McDermott’s team was in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

However, after a win over the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by a dominating 31-10 beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, the Bills are finally beginning to look like the championship contender we all thought they would be at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, following their brief three-game losing skid early on, the 49ers have looked like a juggernaut over the last two months of the season. Winners of six straight contests, San Francisco knocked off the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 before routing the Philadelphia Eagles 42-19 in a rematch of last year’s NFC championship game. Led by the play of Purdy, the 23-year-old leads the NFL in Total QBR, yards per attempt (9.9), and is second in completion percentage (69%). Coming off a 3-2-1 week, here are the picks.

Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Houston Texans (+3)

Cleveland stole a victory away from the Chicago Bears last Sunday to stay in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Joe Flacco made his third consecutive start for the team. The 38-year-old overcame three interceptions. He passed for 374 yards. 212 coming in the final 15 minutes to help the Browns erase a ten-point fourth-quarter deficit.

Forced to turn to backup quarterback Case Keenum in their game against the Tennessee Titans, the Texans were without C.J. Stroud. He was ruled out due to a concussion. Continuing to find ways to win under first-year head coach Demeco Ryans, Ka’imi Fairbairn kicked a 54-yard field goal as time expired in overtime to give Houston the victory and keep them in the postseason chase. Nonetheless, Stroud has already been ruled out for Sunday as he remains in the league’s concussion protocol. Expect it to be a long day for an injury-riddled Texans offense against a dominant Cleveland defense.

Pick: Browns (-3)

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+3)

Detroit bounced back on the heels of a disappointing road loss against the Bears. They routed the Broncos 42-17. Jared Goff tied his career high with five touchdown passes, including three to tight end Sam Laporta. With the stage now set, the Lions can clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2016. Furthermore, they can also lock up their first NFC North title in 30 years.

Losers of three of their last four games, the Vikings fell to the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime. After holding Jake Browning and the rest of the Bengals’ offense in check, Minnesota’s defense allowed the University of Washington product to orchestrate three fourth-quarter touchdown drives, along with the game-winning drive in overtime. While Minnesota has remained competitive despite a revolving door of quarterbacks following the season-ending Achilles injury to Kirk Cousins, it’s hard to see Nick Mullens and company keeping up against a Detroit team that appears to have found its groove again.

Pick: Lions (-3)

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Coming into Orchard Park on a five-game winning streak last Sunday, Buffalo dominated the Cowboys from start to finish. Behind a career day from James Cook, the Bills rushed for a season-high 266 yards. The second-year running back carried the ball 25 times for 179 yards, averaging more than seven yards per attempt. Meanwhile, after gaining momentum in the MVP race over the last month of the season, Dak Prescott was limited to just 134 yards through the air with an interception.

Miami was able to rebound on the heels of being stunned by the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. They pitched a shutout against the New York Jets. Making life miserable for Zach Wilson, the Dolphin’s defense racked up four sacks, including three from Bradley Chubb. Furthermore, Raheem Mostert scored his 17th rushing touchdown of the year to break a tie with Ricky Williams and set a new franchise record.

While Miami has the running game and speed to create problems for this Dallas defense, just one of the Dolphin’s wins this season have come against teams .500 or better. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, count on the Cowboys to rebound in a big way on Christmas Eve.

Pick: Cowboys (+1.5)

Baltimore Ravens (+6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6)

In a potential game-of-the-year candidate, the Ravens travel to Levis Stadium to battle the 49ers on Christmas Day. In the hunt for the number one seed in the AFC, Baltimore beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7 on Sunday Night Football. Lamar Jackson shined on the national stage and continued to make impactful plays. The 26-year-old had 268 total yards, 171 through the air and 97 on the ground.

Powered by the play of Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco has won six straight games. Cruising past the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, Purdy tossed four touchdown passes for the third time this season. Meanwhile, McCaffrey amassed 115 yards on 18 carries while finding the end zone for the seventh time in the past six games.

Baltimore’s defense has been stellar all season long under first-year coordinator Mike Macdonald. However, they remain susceptible against the run by giving up over four yards per carry. Behind the creativity of Kyle Shanahan and the brilliance of McCaffrey, look for the 49ers to pull away late and cement themselves as Super Bowl favorites.

Pick: 49ers (-6)

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 43)

One of the league’s feel-good stories over the past month, the legend of Tommy Devito came to a crashing halt against the New Orleans Saints. Dennis Allen’s defense stifled the rookie quarterback. Hit and harassed all game long, he threw for just 177 yards while being sacked seven times. Furthermore, Saquon Barkley had a season-low nine carries for 14 yards.

Beginning to press the panic button, Philadelphia has lost three straight contests. Stunned by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football, Drew Lock found Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a 29-yard touchdown strike with 28 seconds left to cap a 92-yard game-winning drive. Following their 10-1 start to the season, the Eagles offense has been searching for answers over the last month. They have scored 19 or fewer points in three straight games. Pair that with the inconsistent play of the Giants, lean on the under in this one.

Pick: Under 43

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 43)

Suddenly, in a tie for first place in the AFC South, Jacksonville is looking for its first win in December. All eyes will be on Trevor Lawrence in this one. He suffered a concussion after the Jaguar’s loss to Baltimore. The former first-overall pick will reportedly start after clearing the league’s concussion protocol.

Aiming to keep pace in the battle for the NFC South crown, Tampa Bay upset the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. Led by the play of Baker Mayfield, the former Heisman Trophy winner threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns while registering a perfect 158.3 passer rating. One of the hottest offenses in the NFL, the Buccaneers have scored 20 or more points in their last four games. Look for them to keep rolling against a suspect Jacksonville defense.

Pick: Over 43

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