How to CRUSH Your Fantasy Football Draft from the 1.04
It’s fantasy football season, and if you’re looking to prepare for your draft, you’re in luck! This article will cover the best strategy for a full PPR, 12-man league that starts 1QB/2RBs/2WRs/1TE. If your league settings differ slightly, you should follow a similar strategy but move certain players up and down the board.
For this article, we’ll be using the official Fantrax ADP.
Round 1 (4): Start Your Draft With a STUD Pass Catcher
At 1.04, the best player available is Cooper Kupp, with an ADP of 5.63. I’ll be honest; the recent hamstring injury Kupp suffered scares me a little. Even though Kupp should be back before the start of the season, this isn’t great news for an older wide receiver coming off an ankle injury.
If you’re not a fan of Kupp this season, I won’t fault you for taking Travis Kelce (6.39) or Tyreek Hill (6.77). Both are incredible players, but assuming Justin Jefferson (1.38), Ja’Marr Chase (2.88), or Christian McCaffrey (2.63) go off the board, I’m taking Kupp.
Round 2 (21): Get an ELITE Running Back
Assuming you selected Kupp in the first round, I would love to balance out my roster with my second pick. I’m able to do so and still get a fantastic value by grabbing Tony Pollard (22.3) at pick 21. I don’t mind Rhamondre Stevenson (25.51) if you still want a running back.
Stevenson isn’t the best player on the board, as I would rather have Chris Olave (29.17), who is severely underrated. Nevertheless, you’ll be able to get Pollard almost every time which helps balance out your roster.
Round 3 (28): Draft Chris Olave
After taking Pollard in round two, Chris Olave (29.17) is right there for you at your next pick. Coming out of Ohio State, Olave was an elite prospect and had a great rookie season despite his terrible quarterback play.
Olave was one of 7 rookies with 2.25 or higher yards per route run. This list includes Odell Beckham Jr, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian Watson, and Olave. On top of this, he gets a slight quarterback upgrade in Derek Carr. I’m all in on Olave this year.
Round 4 (45): Draft TJ Hockenson
For those of you that read my 1.06 draft strategy article, I’m sorry you’re hearing the same thing, but TJ Hockenson (47.11) has to be the pick here. You’re getting a massive positional advantage, and I even have him ranked above Mark Andrews this year.
Andrews is forcing more target competition than ever on top of being in an offense that throws the ball far less. Hockenson is in a high-volume passing offense where he had 14.5 PPG when he came to the Vikings.
If you can’t get Hockenson, I would hammer home another wide receiver. My top options at this point are Christian Watson (55.39) or Terry McLaurin (51.66)
Round 5 (52): Draft the Best Value
If Christian Watson (55.39) is there in the 5th round, you should absolutely be taking him.
If you can’t get Watson, I would draft JK Dobbins (57.5) or Cam Akers (60.24).
Dobbins is starting to scare me, but it seems like his injury isn’t serious, and he has no leverage toward his holdout. Dobbins needs to prove himself this year, and there’s no way he’s sitting out.
Round 6 (69): Grab Your RB2
Assuming you took Watson in the 5th round, all you need is a quarterback and an RB2. I don’t understand the hate around Alexander Mattison (70.24). Without Dalvin Cook, Mattison has averaged 20.1 PPG. Even though I don’t expect this to continue on a week-to-week basis, Mattison has a ceiling no one in this round can touch.
Rachaad White (71.69) is also a great pick if you can’t get Mattison. There are a few very good RB2 options with upside to help balance out your roster in the 6th round.
Round 7 (76): Take the Best Sleeper Quarterback
This was a little bit of a reach, but in the 7th round, you should be taking Tua Tagovailoa (85.64). Tagovailoa was an MVP candidate before his concussions, and there’s a real chance that he can be a league-winning fantasy quarterback this year.
Not only is Tagovailoa extremely talented, but he has one of the best-receiving corps in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins had 34.9 pass attempts per game, which should increase even more in 2023. Assuming Tagovailoa can stay healthy, he’s due for a massive season.
Round 8 (93): Shoot for Running Back Upside
Of all the players left, Brian Robinson (102.88) is by far the best starting running back left. At this range, running back depth is so hard to come by, and I’m comfortable having Robinson as my backup due to the amount of volume he will get.
There are a few receivers I would rather have over Robinson, such as rookie Quentin Johnston (107.64), but I’m hoping he’ll make it back to us. After Robinson, the drop-off at running back is much bigger than at wide receiver.
Round 9 (100): Shoot for Wide Receiver Upside
If things work out as they should, you can get Johnston (107.64) in round nine. This is a massive value, as I have Johnston ranked 87th in my rankings. You should always be shooting for upside when working on your bench, especially in a more shallow league format.
Although Johnston has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ahead of him, he should still be the wide receiver three over Josh Palmer. Johnston is in a great situation with Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense that loves to throw the ball.
Round 10 (117): Build Wide Receiver Depth
One of the last players I have as a massive value at this ADP is Zay Flowers (117.14). I have Flowers at 95th, so getting him this late is a great value. As we discussed with Johnston, you should be shooting for upside, which is exactly what you’re doing with Flowers.
I have Flowers behind Johnston mainly because of how little the Ravens pass the ball. The Chargers finished second in the NFL with 41.9 pass attempts, while the Ravens were 28th with 28.7 attempts per game. After grabbing two rookie wide receivers, you should be looking to add running backs with upside after round 10.
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