Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Outlook for 2023
This series intends to explore the range of outcomes for polarizing players. Each player discussed will include the context, the hopeful (upside) outcome, and the skeptical (bust) outcome. Today’s player is Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson played outside of Seattle for the first time in his NFL career last season. Unfortunately, this was arguably his worst season in his 11 years of playing. As we approach Draft Season, fantasy managers are questioning whether Wilson returns to his Seattle form or if we can expect a continued decline in Denver. Wilson is currently coming off of Underdog draft boards as the QB18 with an ADP of 132.3.
Fantasy Upside and Ceiling
Over the past decade-plus, Russell Wilson has been a great fantasy football quarterback. He was a top-12 quarterback in nine of his 11 NFL seasons. He has thrown more than 400 attempts every year except his rookie year, over 3,000 yards every season, and over 20 touchdowns in all but one season with five of those seasons over 30 touchdowns. Before the term “Konami Code” became a staple for fantasy football quarterbacks, Wilson was amassing consistent fantasy points with his rushing ability. He has scampered for over 300 rushing yards eight times and over 500 rushing yards five times. Not to mention the 24 touchdowns he has added over the years.
Wilson now has a full season of work with the Broncos’ offense and the expectation is that he will turn this added work into on-the-field rapport with his offense. News out of training camp is he is picking up the offense well. This is good news not only for him but his offensive weapons Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, and tight end Greg Dulcich.
Furthermore, the Broncos also spent in free agency to bring in two offensive linemen. Mike McGlinchey (tackle from San Francisco) and Ben Powers (guard from Baltimore). Both players will help the line and give Wilson more time in the pocket. Perhaps the biggest improvement to the Broncos and Wilson will be in the hiring of Sean Payton as Head Coach. Payton’s career is tied to another sub-6-foot quarterback, and future hall of famer, Drew Brees.
Hopeful Outcome: QB6-12
He would need around 500 attempts, 300 completions, 3,500 yards, and 25 touchdowns… Not to mention, a little bit of luck rushing the ball to make the jump into the back end of the QB1 range. However, these are all numbers that Wilson has hit in the past and would not be career numbers. A healthy Javonte Williams, or a surprising jump from free agent addition Samaje Perine, could provide the offensive balance needed to keep defenses honest and open the field or Wilson to work.
Fantasy Floor and Downside
Almost all of those statistical thresholds weren’t met in his first year in Denver. On top of that, his passing was on the lower end of his career numbers and he set a new low for touchdowns (16) and tied his second-highest mark for interceptions (11). Perhaps most concerning for fantasy is the stark decrease in rushing attempts over the last two years compared to his previous nine seasons.
A typical year for Wilson saw 75 to 100 rushing attempts and around 500 yards. Last year’s rushing stat line was also one of his lowest with only 277 yards on 55 attempts. Could that be a sign that he is more reluctant to rush? If so that takes away the baked-in floor that has made Wilson a solid weekly start throughout most of his career.
Skeptical Outcome: QB20-25
Needless to say, Wilson’s days of cooking might be done. However, he has always played in 14 or more games in a season. Without injuries, he should be able to maintain that backend QB2 range even if his disappointing ways continue in Denver.
Fantasy Football Projection: QB10-15
While I think Russell Wilson’s days of being a top-3 fantasy QB are over, I think the addition of Sean Payton provides the biggest boost to Wilson and the entire Broncos team. Even with back-to-back bad seasons, Wilson still produced upper-level QB2 yearly finishes and 20+ point games 41% of the time.
Fantasy Draft Strategy
Draft Format, as with all drafts, is very important here. In 1QB leagues, Wilson falls into the super late-quarterback approach where you try to target undervalued veteran quarterbacks. It’s not a coincidence to me that Wilson’s ADP neighbors are Aaron Rodgers (121.0), Jared Goff (128.9), and Derek Carr (145.1).
Overall, the strategy would be to use the first 10 rounds to hammer running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Possibly even early since you know you will be using a lot of early and middle-round picks on running backs and wide receivers. Then, pair Wilson with another one of these slipping veterans or a high-upside young quarterback like Jordan Love (153.0) or the rookies Bryce Young (176.1) and C.J. Stroud (189.4).
In Superflex leagues, especially ones with third-round reversal, Wilson’s third-round ADP might seem high but could be a great pairing with another high-end quarterback and elite wide receiver or running back option. I would pass on Wilson if I have already drafted my quarterback(s) in both 1QB leagues and Superflex. I would rather use that pick to get depth at the wide receiver and running back positions versus a backup quarterback option like Wilson.
If you enjoyed this or you would like a specific player’s range of outcomes discussed next, please reach out to me @fftheathomedad.
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