Week 13 DraftKings Bargain Bin Plays and DFS Values

Week 13 is here and we are down to the final five weeks of the NFL regular season. This week’s slate has 12 games on it with the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers on their bye week. We have a lot of good values to pick from as you will find the rookie wide receivers are starting to come on late. Finally, could we also be seeing the changing of the guard from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love?

Before I break down all of our picks, here are the most notable scoring rules for DraftKings contests: Full-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, three-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing. Along with having a $50,000 budget to build a complete lineup. 

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Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700)

This game I’m pretty excited about this as we get to see the teacher Kyle Shannahan and the student in Mike McDaniel go head-to-head in what should be a back-and-forth game. Elijah Mitchell is out for 6-8 weeks and Christian McCaffrey is also banged up which has me thinking Jimmy Garoppolo will be throwing the ball more than usual. McDaniel knows this 49ers defense better than most so game planning will be fun and critical. Except for a shootout here. 

Mike White ($5,400)

Making his season debut last week Mike White went 22-for-28 for 315 yards and three touchdowns. The Minnesota Vikings have given up 300+ passing yards in five of their last six games. This defense is porous and very easy to throw on. With questions up in the air of who is at running back, we know White will make his pass catchers better than Zach Wilson did. Let’s proceed with caution knowing that White had a game like this last year and fell flat on his face. 

Jordan Love ($5,100)

This is only if Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing. Jordan Love looked his best Sunday night filling in when Rodgers went out. Going 6-of-9 passing for 113 yards and a beautiful touchdown pass to Christian Watson. It was a chef’s kiss quarter for Love. With the Chicago Bears defense being banged up, Love could be looking at a whole game to himself.

Personally, if I was the Packers I would sit Rodgers knowing there’s a bye next week. We know the dawg in Rodgers though, if he plays, then Love is worth nothing here other than the words you read. 

Running Backs

Dameon Pierce ($5,900)

Two back-to-back horrible games have dropped Dameon Pierce in a place that you want to smash at. Pierce has 16 total rushing yards over his slump, but before that was averaging about 86 yards per game. Don’t expect this trend to continue where he’s getting you less than five DK points. Pierce will bounce back here against one of the worst (30th) rush defenses and return RB1 stats at a low-end RB2 cost.

D’Andre Swift ($5,600)

We haven’t seen D’Andre Swift smash since Week 1 when he finished with 29.5 DK points. Ever since coming back from injury, he hasn’t seen any more than six attempts. Last week he got a boost and saw eight targets. With this game having one of the highest over/under, I don’t see it being a Jamaal Williams week.

This should be a pass-happy game making it a Swift week. Swift is one of my favorite “almost touchdown” players as he always gets so close each week. This week should be his week as Jerick McKinnon a couple of weeks ago had a 6/65 stat line against them. 

Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300)

Whenever we start to doubt Brain Robinson, he just performs. It’s ugly, he doesn’t have the top-end speed we love in running backs but he’s a plodder. The New York Giants have been struggling to stop the run as of late giving up on average 132 rushing yards and six total touchdowns since their Week 9 bye. Being a divisional matchup, Robinson should have north of 15 attempts again and I like the chances of him finding the end zone. 

Jerick McKinnon ($4,500)

When trying to figure out this offense, you would think Jerick McKinnon would be the running back to have in this pass-happy offense. A couple of weeks ago, McKinnon saw back-to-back games of eight targets, just to get one target the following week. Finally, he was able to get back on track and saw six targets. He was able to catch three of them for 26 yards and dropped an easy one that would have been a touchdown.

This week going into Cincinnati, I see McKinnon being needed more than ever as Ja’Marr Chase is expected to be back and we know what he can do to this Chiefs defense. Cincinnati held Derrick Henry (17 att, 38 yards) on the ground but gave up a huge pass play to him to give the Titans a score. I like McKinnon’s chances this week as he should see the target volume.

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,900)

If I’m going to like one Chiefs pass-catcher, you know I’m going to like another. Last week JuJu Smith-Schuster played under 30 snaps, but the Chiefs led this game right from the beginning so he wasn’t needed much as Patrick Mahomes shared the love all around the field.

This week, just like McKinnon, the Chiefs will need all their weapons at 100%. Cincinnati ranks as one of the best (5th) against wide receivers but let’s remember Travis Kelce is the top option here and good luck stopping him. Mahomes will spread the ball around the yard here and JuJu should be a benefit with the defense trying to take Kelce out. 

Garrett Wilson ($5,300)

What is looking like an upgrade from Zach Wilson to Mike White benefited Garrett Wilson catching five of eight targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. With Minnesota’s leaky pass secondary I once again see Wilson benefiting, especially at his current price. 

Christian Watson ($5,200)

What a hot streak Christian Watson is on as he has scored six touchdowns over his last three games. With Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love, it didn’t matter as Watson had a 63-yard catch and run touchdown from Love. As I stated above with Love at quarterback, it follows suit with Watson against this banged-up Bears defense.

George Pickens ($5,100)

Looking at this offense, it’s looking more like George Pickens is the WR1 over Diontae Johnson who now is only $100 more than Pickens. Pickens was second in targets and catches but produced better than Johnson. The chemistry that Kenny Pickett and Pickens has is phasing out Johnson. I love Pickens once again as the Falcons (29th) are horrible against the receiver position, especially the WR2.

Zay Jones ($4,900)

This game screams shoot-out all over it, especially for both teams’ wide receivers. Zay Jones has now had back-to-back games of 10-plus targets. He’s been pushed to the outside and Christian Kirk has shifted to the slot. I love the 24 targets over this period as Trevor Lawrence looks to be taking the next step in his progression. Finally looking like a key contributor to this offense, expect another big game coming for Jones.

Tight Ends

Foster Moreau ($3,600)

When a tight end gets a touchdown, it seems kike everyone chases it. Foster Moreau has two touchdowns in his last three games along with 14 targets over that span. This divisional game means a lot for the Chargers and has an implied total of 50.5 meaning a lot of scoring could be happening. With the way Derek Carr has been playing over his last few games, I see Moreau getting a chance for another touchdown. 

Tyler Conklin ($3,100)

REVENGE GAME! Tyler Conklin gets an opportunity to go up against his old team and like Garett Wilson, I’m in on Conklin this week also as long as Mike White can hold up. Nothing beats a revenge touchdown either. 

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