5 Running Back Bust Candidates for Fantasy Football in 2023
We all love discussing which players we think will smash and help us win our fantasy football leagues. Unfortunately, what’s not as fun, but equally important, is discussing the players who can ruin your season.
It’s true you don’t win your league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it with a few bad picks. Avoiding land mines is key to successfully navigating any fantasy football draft.
Let’s discuss five running back busts who might end up breaking our hearts and obliterating our wallets.
Najee Harris (PIT): ADP 31.23
An old-school, pure-volume play, Harris has finished as the RB3 and RB14 the last two years. Harris’ modest career yards per carry (YPC) of 3.9 can partly be attributed to poor offensive line play. The unfortunate truth, though, is that he has been one of the most inefficient running backs since he entered the league in 2021.
Harris has also been one of the least explosive running backs in the league. According to Sharp Football, Harris has had runs of 10+ yards on just 8.1% of his carries. This ranks last among running backs with 100+ carries in the last two years.
Less Volume Spells Trouble
So why would Harris bust when he has first-round draft pedigree and volume on his side? Because he may not be guaranteed that same volume this season.
Second-year back Jaylen Warren has been making his case for more touches in the offense this year. Albeit in a small sample size, Warren seemed to provide more pop for the running game. Warren finished with a 45.5% success rate on all runs according to Sharp Football.
He also graded higher than Harris in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating finishing 9th compared to Harris’ 28th place finish. Warren might just be talented enough for the Steelers to consider giving him a larger role. Any decline in touches for Harris will be a major problem for his fantasy value.
Harris is unlikely to lose his job completely to a second-year undrafted free agent. Warren can poach enough touches to knock Harris down to a low-end RB2 or even a flex option. That would most certainly lead to a disappointing finish.
Harris is not certain to receive the same volume he’s received in the past. Given his fantasy success has been tied directly to volume, he carries more bust potential this year than before.
Harris can still volume his way to another respectable season. But with added competition, the leash might be the shortest it’s ever been.
Travis Etienne (JAC): ADP 34.19
While Etienne had an impressive debut season carrying the lion’s share of the work, 2022 marked the first time a running back eclipsed 180 Carries and 870 yards in a Doug Pederson-led offense.
While it seemed Etienne would be the clear lead back moving forward, the Jaguars drafted talented rookie Tank Bigsby this past April.
Given their selection of Bigsby, it’s very possible Etienne’s 2022 usage was a necessity rather than the plan. The Jaguars began the year splitting reps between Etienne and James Robinson. However, once they realized Robinson had little juice left, he was jettisoned off the roster and Etienne was left to handle the load. Would this have played out differently with someone more talented than Robinson?
Concerns
Let’s discuss some holes in Etienne’s play. The passing game was an area Etienne struggled with at times in 2022.
Travis Etienne's NFL receiving profile a concern. Last season:
* 7.5% target share, barely above Nick Chubb 6.8%. Note ETN ran 107 more routes than Chubb.
* 8th among all RBs in routes last season, but 21st in catches
* 30th among 49 qualifying RBs in yards per route run— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) May 22, 2023
Another concern? His performance in goal-line situations. Etienne only converted two touchdowns from inside the five-yard line. According to Sharp Football, Bigsby converted 78.3% of his short-yardage carries into first downs or touchdowns. Furthermore, Etienne finished 25th in our consistency score among running backs.
The problem for Etienne? Bigbsy’s selection makes it unclear if Etienne will maintain the same role/volume he saw in 2022. There’s a case to be made Etienne could be relegated to a TRAP (Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage) back this season. That would mean Etienne receives touches that are insignificant in terms of fantasy production.
Bigbsy is a better short-yardage back and might be a better option in the receiving game too. Etienne’s history with Trevor Lawrence could be his saving grace, but it’s no lock given his short yardage and passing-catching struggles. Losing these roles would put a clear cap on Etienne’s ceiling.
Etienne can still be a very efficient player on the touches he does receive. He proved that in 2022. But should he cede touches around the goal line and passing game, 2022 will be a disappointment relative to expectations.
Currently being drafted as the RB13 according to our up-to-date fantasy football ADP, it might be a stretch to expect better than his RB17 2022 finish.
Kenneth Walker (SEA): ADP 42.03
I have to start by saying this. It pains me greatly to place Walker on this list. I’m a huge fan of Walker’s game. I won several fantasy leagues last year thanks to him, and I cashed a couple of longshot tickets on his Week 7 performance last year. I made a pretty penny off the man in 2022. However, 2023 is a new animal. There are many reasons to be concerned about his upcoming season.
Not All Roses
Walker was very inefficient as a runner. According to Sharp Football, among 42 running backs with 100+ carries, Walker finished 42nd in success rate, 42nd in early down success rate, and 41st in percentage of rushes to gain five-plus yards. Seattle seemed to know what these numbers are telling us and felt Walker left some meat on the bone. They drafted rookie Zach Charbonnet as a result.
Not helping matters, Walker only ranked 18th in our Fantasy Football Consistency Score. Additionally, Seattle checks in ranked 20th in our 2023 Running Back Strength of Schedule. A tough schedule could mean more efficiency struggles for Walker.
While Charbonnet does not possess the same homerun speed that Walker does, he’s very good in short-yardage situations and is a capable pass catcher.
The Problem
This leads us to the main issue. Charbonnet excels in areas where Walker struggles. Walker’s problems with efficiency, short yardage, and catching passes mean he can easily be relegated to a TRAP back for fantasy purposes. He would be a disastrous selection in this scenario.
Despite the homerun talent, Walker is an extremely dangerous pick. There are too many glaring holes in his game, and we cannot ignore Charbonnet’s presence. His skills mesh too perfectly with Walker’s weaknesses.
Walker’s 2023 has TRAP back written all over it. It’s hard to recommend drafting Walker when we can find equal or better production from Charbonnet later in drafts.
Alexander Mattison (MIN): ADP 60.45
Mattison finally gets his chance to shine after backing up Dalvin Cook for four seasons. He is arguably the most polarizing player this draft season. So let’s throw our hat in the ring and pick a side.
Mattison has indeed been a useful back for fantasy purposes scoring over 16 fantasy points in five of six starts filling in for Cook. The underlying data paints a starkly different picture, however.
According to Sharp Football, over the last two seasons among 74 running backs with 100+ rushing attempts, Mattison has ranked 68th in yards per carry, 45th in success rate, 43rd in explosive rush run rate, and 42nd in yards after contact per carry. These all suggest Mattison is a below-average player.
While the Vikings did make a point to re-sign Mattison in free agency, it was only a two-year seven-million-dollar deal. There is really no financial motivation to keep handing him the football if his inefficiency becomes a problem. Minnesota could begin to experiment with other options or even look to sign a veteran during the season.
Mattison is going off draft boards smack in the middle of the traditional running back “dead zone.” He is almost the prototypical “dead zone” back in that he is someone we are interested in solely due to perceived volume. There have been some terrible whiffs on these types of players over the years- Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin, and Thomas Rawls to name a few.
Yes, the opportunity for volume-based relevance is here, but there is very real bottom-out potential as well.
D’Andre Swift (PHI): ADP 64.97
Swift gets a fresh start after being traded to Philadelphia. While some are ringing out with jubilation, this may not have been the ideal landing spot.
The main problem with the move to Philadelphia? Swift’s fantasy appeal has largely been tied to his pass-catching abilities. He has now moved to an offense that does not target their running backs. According to FantasyPros, The Eagles targeted their running backs 61 times in 2022. This ranked dead last in the league.
In fairness, there is chatter the Eagles want to include their backs in the passing game more this season. Even if that comes to fruition, it’s hard to see Swift being more than the fourth option playing alongside A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Additionally, playing alongside rushing quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts also leaves fewer check-down opportunities for running backs.
Even if Swift does carve out a role as a receiver, how much work can we realistically expect?
The Eagles’ backfield is very murky for fantasy purposes. In addition to trading for Swift, they signed Rashaad Penny this offseason and still have Kenneth Gainwell who has been drawing rave reviews this summer in his own right.
The Eagles also rank 19th in terms of our Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule for running backs. There could be less running room this season as a result.
When putting it all together, it’s hard to make a case for Swift outside of pure optimism that he’s the most talented player in the backfield. And even that’s a debatable notion when put alongside Penny.
It’s better to pass and let someone else make the hero pick.
Wrapping Up
Look, the reality of playing fantasy football is that we need to be able to identify players to shy away from in drafts. Ultimately, knowing who to avoid is just as important as knowing who to target. It’s another way we can gain an edge over all the schmoes in our leagues.
Remember…
You can’t win your league on draft day, but you can lose it.
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