Fantasy Football Ambiguous Backfields: NFC South

JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) first brought up the idea of the ambiguous RB1 theory which you can read more about here. His work inspired me to create my own process and target backfields where the consensus is making assumptions when in reality it isn’t as black and white as it seems on the surface.

His theory led me to draft running backs in murky situations such as James Robinson, Khalil Herbert, Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafting Elijah Mitchell while fading Trey Sermon.

I will be doing a series breaking down each division and their backfields and telling you which running backs you should be targeting.

These suggestions will be gross, but you don’t need anyone telling you to target Jonathan Taylor. We are trying to get you league-winning value for free. Let’s dive in.

(*The number behind the player’s name indicates the average draft position, per Sleeper)

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Atlanta Falcons

• Cordarrelle Patterson (135)
• Tyler Allgeier (137)
• Damien Williams (292)
• Qadree Ollison (UDFA)
• Avery Williams (UDFA)
• Caleb Huntley (UDFA)

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier is a highly productive running back out of Bringham Young University (BYU). Allgeier finished his final 2 seasons with stat lines of 1,304/13 (2020) and 1,800/23 (2021).

In the 5th Round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons selected Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is joining a backfield with very little competition for the lead-back role. The current backfield features Cordarrelle Patterson (31), and Damien Williams (30). While both have had flashes in the NFL, neither is a proven talent at the position.

At 5’11” and 221 lbs, Allgeier is a well-built running back that can operate as the lead-back for the Falcons. Allgeier is a smooth, one-cut runner with good vision and contact balance. He won’t wow you with his explosiveness and lateral agility, but it is enough to get the job done.

While Allgeier may not be an elite talent, he has bell-cow size and is entering a backfield that is wide open.

Carolina Panthers

• Christian McCaffrey (15)
• Chuba Hubbard (165)
• D’Onta Foreman (228)
• Spencer Brown (UDFA)
• Darius Bradwell (UDFA)
• John Lovett (UDFA)

D’Onta Foreman

D’Onta Foreman is a thick running back with top-tier size-adjusted speed. In Foreman’s junior season in college, he finished with 2,028 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. He was drafted by the Houston Texans in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft. Unfortunately, Foreman’s career has also been riddled with injury. In week 11 of his rookie season, he tore his Achilles tendon which caused him to miss the remainder of the season as well as the 2018 season. In 2019 he joined the Indianapolis Colts but was injured yet again with a torn bicep that caused him to miss the entire 2020 season.

2021 was Foreman’s first season healthy since his rookie year. He joined the Tenessee Titans as the lead back when Derrick Henry went down with a season-ending injury. In his new role, Foreman posted outings of 109 yards, 108 yards, and 132 yards while averaging 5.24 YPC.

While the Panthers backfield belongs to Christian McCaffrey, Foreman could be the thunder to CMC’s lightning or even take over the lead role in the event of injury.

New Orleans Saints

• Alvin Kamara (39)
• Abram Smith (254)
• Mark Ingram (269)
• Tony Jones Jr (UDFA)
• Dwayne Washington (UDFA)
• Devine Ozigbo (UDFA)

Abram Smith

Abram Smith is a running back out of Baylor University. For the first two years of his collegiate career, he was a running back, but he had very little success so he switched to linebacker. After a season at linebacker, he decided to switch back to running back. However, this time was much different than the first two seasons. Smith went off for 1,601 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Smith’s unconventional college career led to him going undrafted, however, he signed with the New Orleans Saints following the NFL Draft. Smith received the 2nd most guaranteed money from the Saints and is joining a roster with subpar talent outside of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.

At 6’0” 213 lbs, Smith has excellent size and runs angry. Smith lacks explosiveness and is not elusive, however, he may end up having an important role in the Saints’ offense. In February of 2021, Alvin Kamara was arrested for battery while at the Pro Bowl. If Kamara does end up receiving a suspension – Smith will have plenty of opportunities to carve out a role. I do not believe in Smith as a long-term dynasty asset, so if he does flash I will be selling immediately.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Leonard Fournette (70)
• Rachaad White (115)
• Ke’Shawn Vaughn (239)
• Giovani Bernard (UDFA)
• Kenjon Barner (UDFA)

Rachaad White

Rachaad White didn’t have a conventional collegiate career. He received few offers out of high school and began his college career at Nebraska-Kerney. From there he transferred to Mt. San Antonio California where he finished the season with 1,480 total yards and 10 touchdowns. After an impressive season, White once again transferred to Arizona State University in 2020. ASU played only four games in 2020 due to a shortened COVID season, but White made the most of his opportunities. In four games he finished with 571 total yards and five touchdowns. In 2021, he built off of his previous season and finished with 1,462 total yards and 15 touchdowns.

White was selected in the 3rd round of the 2022 NFL Draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. White is a 6’0” 214 lb running back that offers elite pass-catching ability and athleticism. Unfortunately, for being such a big back he doesn’t offer much in terms of contact balance.

Leonard Fournette will likely have control of the backfield to begin the year, but White could possibly carve out a role in the offense and offers massive upside in the event of injury.

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