7 Dark Horse RB1 Candidates for Fantasy Football in 2023
We all know who the best running backs are as we head into the 2023 fantasy football season. It’s easy to suggest targeting players like Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry in your fantasy football drafts. However, where you can really benefit, is by finding running backs with elite, top-five type of fantasy upside.
While expecting McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler to have the highest odds of finishing as the RB1, sometimes others pop out of nowhere. These are known as dark horses. Here are 7 running backs who I could see finishing as the RB1 overall for the 2023 season. Targeting these players, could bring you immense upside and hopefully, a fantasy football championship.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
For the fifth year in a row, Nick Chubb once again averaged 5.0 YPC. Quietly, Chubb finished as the RB6 in PPR, with Kareem Hunt on the team. Now, it’s Chubb’s backfield with no genuine threat behind him.
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Chubb was the RB4 overall and also in points. However, from weeks 13-17 in DeShaun Watson’s return, Chubb dropped to RB23. Yet, in Week 18 he bounced back to finish as the RB1.
Free agency has come and gone, along with the NFL Draft and the Browns didn’t add anyone behind Chubb. Projected backup Jerome Ford is coming off an eight-carry season that was turned into twelve yards and zero targets.
Now it’s Chubb’s backfield and there will be no looking back. Last season he had 302 carries, good for third in the league. Who says Chubb can’t do it again?
The veteran runner deserves the benefit of the doubt as Watson will have a full offseason. Additionally, if Watson bounces back to his form, this offense the Browns should be in the red zone plenty. Overall, Chubb has shown no signs of slowing down. He could be a touchdown machine in the rushing and receiving game in 2023 and absolutely finish as the RB1 overall.
According to our free fantasy football tool, the Consistency Score, Chubb was the 6th-most “consistent” running back in 2022.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Through the first eight games of the 2022 season, Harris averaged 10.9 PPR per game. Additionally, he had no games over 14 PPR points going into the bye, with just one RB1 weekly finish. However, the second half of the season was a massive improvement. Harris’s touches increased from 16.9 to 20.1 per game. Furthermore, he scored 7 of his 10 total touchdowns during this time, giving us the Harris we are used to seeing.
Now we have Kenny Pickett coming in with an entire offseason under his belt and an improvement along the offensive line. The lisfranc injury is well behind Harris, and now he is in the fourth draft round.
Let’s not forget that Harris is a volume-based running back who was No.1(381) in total touches as a rookie, followed by No.6 (313) last season. Yet, his 3.8 YPC have you asking for more.
With little competition behind him, Harris will look to once again be top five in touches. Many will tell you that Jaylen Warren is a threat but he’s not. Harris has first-round draft capital in him and is a powerful running back. With the massive improvement along the offensive line, both in free agency and the NFL Draft, Harris has the opportunity to be very special and have a Derrick Henry-type season.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
There is no denying Jahmyr Gibbs talent, and the Detroit Lions were not afraid to take him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. In fact, they seemed extremely excited when they took him. When I did my first rookie mock draft last year, I had Gibbs compared to Alvin Kamara, and righteously so. Gibbs has the same if not better skill set as that of D’Andre Swift. With Swift being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, Gibbs’ only competition is former Bear David Montgomery.
Looking at the high draft capital the Lions invested in Gibbs gives me the feeling that they want him to be what Swift never was. What I mean by this is a powerful back who doesn’t hesitate and will deliver blows when needed. Swift was famous for slowing down and running out of bounds in 2021, which was seen on Hard Knocks.
While Swift appeared in 14 games, he was second on the team in targets (70) and second in rushing attempts (99). Yet, was 163 carries behind Jamaal Williams. This season, that’s going to change and Gibbs is going to be expected to be what we wanted Swift to be, a powerful dual-threat running back.
Gibbs needs a few things to go right to have a shot at RB1, but few players possess his receiving talent. As we’ve seen with Kamara, there is a path via receiving yards and touchdowns. Unfortunately, Swift could have done it but just never lived up to it. Now it’s time for the rookie to glow.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
After a stellar end to his rookie year, many expected J.K. Dobbins to jump up as an RB1. During the 2021 preseason, he looked ready to take the next step until he tore his ACL in a pointless preseason game and missed the 2021 season.
Though many people were into Dobbins, especially in dynasty leagues, he took till Week 14 to get back to form. From Weeks 14 through 17, Dobbins averaged 14 carries for 99 rushing yards. With such a down season, Dobbins was able to still achieve 5.7 yards per carry to keep his career average over five yards per carry.
Now, former Georgia Bulldogs offensive coordinator Todd Monken is the Ravens’ new coordinator replacing Greg Roman. With an uptempo offense that Monken brings with him, you never know what kind of play is coming next. From no huddle, to hurry up Monken’s offense was one of the most efficient offenses in college football. Yet, the running back benefited greatly averaging 5.5 YPC.
Furthermore, Monken said he would like to get the running backs more involved in the receiving game. This alone screams Dobbins as he has better hands compared to the other running backs. Additionally, Dobbins has 32 targets over his 23-game career. Who says he can’t see north of 50 targets this season?
This offense should be cooking and drafters should be happy getting Dobbins in the fourth round.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
After missing his entire rookie season with a foot injury, Travis Etienne Jr. made up for it by finishing as the RB17 in PPR. He finished with 1,125 rushing yards and five touchdowns along with 35 receptions (45 targets) for another 316 yards. Essentially, I call his second year his rookie year and see improvement coming for year two.
One of my favorite knocks I keep seeing on him most recently is the Jaguars’ drafting of Tank Bigsby in the third round. While many will think this will hurt Etienne’s production, it adds depth to a team that was using Jamycal Hasty as their RB2.
Let’s not forget too that this Jaguars team traded for Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline. With this addition, the franchise tag is placed on Evan Engram and year two in Doug Pederson’s offense should have this offense clicking and set up for many scoring opportunities.
Per PFF, Etienne was top-5 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.20) and also earned 3.1 yards after contact, good for 14th amongst running backs. Although Etienne wasn’t efficient in the receiving game, his elusiveness should keep him on the field plenty. Many will draft him as an RB2 who should return to RB1.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Many expected the Rams to be once again Super Bowl contenders but that didn’t happen as both Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp went down with injuries and finished 5-12. Though the team had some bright spots, Cam Akers finished the season off strong.
Coming off an Achilles tear, Akers was in Sean McVay’s dog house, and through the first 12 weeks Akers only scored 35.2 PPR points. Furthermore, for us fantasy managers we already benched Akers or were out of the playoffs. What happened during the final six games was the reason why you drafted him with an early-round pick.
Through the final six games of the season, Akers led the NFL in rushing with 512 yards good for RB4 over that span. All this with a banged-up offensive line and Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
Now, being two years removed from his Achilles injury and no additional threats added to the backfield, it’s Akers as the RB1 for the Rams. With an improved offensive line, and Matthew Stafford returning from injury, this team is looking to get back on the right foot. Furthermore, McVay has said, “Akers is going to be a central figure of this offense”. For as long as Akers is falling in drafts, he’s a smash RB2 for the potential run he’ll have with this offense.
D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
The talent is obvious, but what D’Andre Swift has shown in his short career has us wanting more. As I said above with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs, it was obvious that Swift was going to be moved. Although I thought he would be gone during day 2 of the NFL Draft, he was traded on day 3 for pennies on the dollar. It just goes to show you how much Detroit wanted Swift gone.
Now Swift goes from one of the best offensive lines in Detroit to the best offensive line in the league in the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only does he go to a better offensive line, but a team that lost the Super Bowl. With the offensive pieces returning, this offense should be once again contenders for the Super Bowl.
Last season, Miles Sanders saw 259 attempts, good enough to finish with 1,271 yards and 11 touchdowns. Furthermore, he only saw 26 targets finishing with a measly 20 catches for 78 yards. Yet, finished as RB15 in PPR ahead of players like Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and even Swift.
On the other hand, Swift had 99 carries for 542 yards with 5 touchdowns along with 48 receptions (70 targets) for 389 yards and another three touchdowns. The Eagles running backs alone had 61 targets, dead last in the league (12.1%). Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson plans to use Swift more as a pass-catching option, which is his best strength.
Swift will be a preferred PPR option with an opportunity to score anytime the ball is in his hands. Although he will be held back with Jalen Hurts rushing the ball, Swift is the best running back this team has had since LeSean McCoy.
7 Dark Horse WR1 Candidates for 2023 Fantasy Football
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