Don’t Fade James Cook – Fantasy Football Outlook

Is James Cook worth a Top-10 rookie draft pick in 2022? Personally, I think so. But I also think that this conversation is quickly becoming the most tired conversation on the fantasy football side of social media. I’ve come to Cook’s defense countless times over the last few weeks, and I think it’s finally time that I put all of my thoughts into an article.

To paint the full picture, I’m going to highlight what we know about Cook so far and what we can project for him in the future.

College Production

Cook wasn’t what you’d call a “production monster” in college, but he sure was efficient. While he did only total 230 carries in four years at Georgia, there was never a season where he had finished with under 6.1 YPC. That includes a season in which he had 113 carries. He also averaged a rushing touchdown every 16 carries, which totaled out to 14 touchdowns over 230 attempts.

Sure, the number of carries we saw from him isn’t anything to write home about, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he won’t ever receive a bigger workload as an NFL running back. I’m not going to call him a 200+ carry running back, but he won’t have to be in order to be fantasy relevant. His real strengths come in as a pass-catching back, which is exactly what the Bills are going to be wanting from him.

Cook was considered to be one of the best (if not THE best) pass-catching running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class. Throughout his college career, Cook posted 67 catches for 730 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He has shown excellent ability as a receiver and has proven himself to be a very capable blocker, which is going to help him get on the field more in the NFL. 

At the end of the day, the question becomes “Do you believe that Cook can receive a bigger workload in the NFL than he did in college?” Considering that Cook was selected as the third running back off the board in the entire draft class, I’ll go out on a limb and say yes he will. The Bills took him for a reason, and while that reason may not be to make him a workhorse, they’re still going to find plenty of things for him to do in this offense.

Prediction Model

I know what you’re thinking, “Everyone in this damn space has a model that they swear by and they never work”. Well, who am I to say that you should trust my model? I mean, personally, I trust it, as it has had an overall hit rate of 75% to 80% for every class since 2018. But hey, do what you want. 

Cook profiles very well, largely because of his receiving profile, and it leads me to believe that he’ll be able to find fantasy relevance as soon as year one. While I wouldn’t say that he’s a candidate to finish as a Top-10 running back as a rookie, I do have a hard time imagining him not being a Top-25 running back this year.

Since 2018, only nine rookie running backs have profiled in the “Fantasy RB1” category. For the record, there are two tiers above this one, but it has still proven to be a fairly solid group of fantasy running backs:

As you can see, it’s not the most incredible group of backs you’ve ever seen, but it’s hardly bad company to be in. I know there’s nothing sexy about taking Darrell Henderson, Royce Freeman, or Sony Michel in the late first round. But the conversation gets much different if you’re looking at the other names on the list. 

As a pass-catcher, Cook reminds me a lot of D’Andre Swift. While I have to admit that their running styles are different, Cook is every bit as capable as Swift is as a receiver out of the backfield, and that’s going to be his path to fantasy relevancy.

Examining the ADP

According to our latest 1QB ADP, Cook is currently going around the 1.09 and 1.10 spot in drafts since the 2022 NFL Draft. If you’re telling me that I have a coin toss chance to get a guy like Antonio Gibson or even Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who did finish as a Top-22 fantasy running back in his rookie season, at 1.10, I’d take that chance every day. Then, when you take into account that he is tied directly to Josh Allen for at least the next four years. Well, how do you say no?

In my opinion, there are only six or seven guys that should definitely be taken before Cook in rookie drafts this year. That list includes Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson. There are scenarios where I’d take Chris Olave over Cook as well, but it depends on the situation I’m in.

I think some of the outrage of Cook being taken too early is the misconception around the ADP. I got into a minor argument with a guy on Twitter the other day about how Cook is not worth his ADP. When I questioned him about it, he referred to Cook’s ADP at “1.05 or 1.06” which is just flat out wrong. While this may not be the case for everyone, a large group of the “Cook Haters” tend to think that this early ADP is correct. Well, it’s not.

Rookie ADP Data:

1QB

Superflex/2QB

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Cook’s Case Over the “B-Tier” Receivers

Another issue that I see people taking up with Cook is who he’s being selected ahead of in rookie drafts. I’ve already explained who I think should absolutely be taken ahead of Cook on draft day, but I know many may not agree with my list, and that’s okay. I can’t force you to be right, but I can let you know how I went about my process for the next few guys on this list.

Skyy Moore

Moore has a ton of potential to be good, but we’ve also been wrongfully exalting the “highly coveted” WR2 spot in Kansas City for many years now. Moore was the pre-draft WR6 – WR9 for many, and that’s about where he stayed for most people after being selected to the Chiefs. If I were going to take any B-Tier rookie receiver over Cook, it’d be Moore.

With that being said, Moore is a smaller receiver that ranked as a fairly average receiver in the model that I trust. If I’m going to take a swing on a player in the late-first round of my rookie draft, it’s going to be the running back that I loved pre-draft, scored better in the model, and also landed in a great spot. Every time.

Christian Watson

Watson is not a good receiver. I try not to hold the NDSU offense against him, but I mean, come on. His best season was 800 yards and seven touchdowns. The guy wasn’t even on most dynasty players’ radars until the Senior Bowl. Do a quick search on how many receivers didn’t break out until the Senior Bowl and then went on to be a stud in the NFL. Not many. The landing spot is great, but there’s a lot of concern with his game. The ability to make space may be a difficult task for him as a pro, and his model score was downright awful. Despite the 2nd-round draft capital, Watson ranked 50 of 67 receivers since 2018. I’ll pass.

Jahan Dotson

Dotson’s got a lot of talent, but the situation isn’t amazing. Sure, he comes in to being the immediate WR2 in Washington, but that title hasn’t meant much over the last several seasons for Washington. He scored in the same category as Moore in the model, but given the situation is much worse I wouldn’t consider him over Moore in any draft. There is no scenario where I take Dotson over Cook either.

George Pickens

Pickens is exciting but problematic. There are red flags around him, which is why he fell in real life. He landed in a completely crowded receiver room and has either rookie Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky throwing to him for the foreseeable future. While the ceiling is sky-high, the floor is in the basement. There are some people that are fine with taking Pickens in the first round, but that’s too rich for my blood.

If there are any other players that I had missed, I’m sure you’ll let me know in the comments. I look forward to our exchange. At any rate, while I do like some of the B-Tier receivers, I’m not taking a shot on any of them over Cook. Running back scarcity exists in every single league and that makes Cook much more immediately valuable than the players I’ve listed above.

Recent Buffalo Running Backs

Well, this could be anyone’s guess. People who are bullish on him will predict a big workload, and people who hate him think he’ll touch the rock 50 times all season. However, there is a perfectly logical way to approach this question.

First and foremost, running backs do not get drafted in the 2nd round to ride the pine all year. Combine that with the fact that Singletary has never seen over 200 carries in a single season, and we’ve got something to work with.

Here are the running back splits for Buffalo over the last three years:

2019: Frank Gore (166 ATT, 599 Yards, 2 TD) & Devin Singletary (151 ATT, 775 Yards, 2 TD)

2020: Devin Singletary (156 ATT, 687 Yards, 2 TD) & Zack Moss (112 ATT, 481 Yards, 4 TD)

2021: Devin Singletary (188 ATT, 870 Yards, 7 TD) & Zack Moss (96 ATT, 345 Yards, 4 TD)

*Not Mentioned: Matt Breida’s 26 carries after Moss was banished from the field in 2021

What to Expect in Year One

While philosophies change, I can’t imagine a world where Buffalo’s RB2 doesn’t have at least 100 carries, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see 120 to 130 carries for Cook in year one. Buffalo loved what they got from Singletary last year, but they’re not going to lean on him as a workhorse. They’re too smart to burn out a good running back like that.

So, let’s go ahead and project Cook for a modest 115 carries. Let’s assume his YPC takes a dip from college, but we’ll still give him a very efficient 4.15 yards. This totals out to 477 rushing yards and we can likely assume four touchdowns given the abilities he’d shown in college. 

The important part is factoring in his receiving work. Last season, there were 91 targets for running backs in Buffalo. In 2020, there were 73 and in 2019 running backs saw 72. With that being said, the top-two running backs that Buffalo has had over the last three seasons were never known to be stellar pass-catchers. Sure, Singletary has been good with it, but that’s not the part of his game that he’s known for.

If the coach-speak is true, the Bills intend on using Cook heavily as a pass-catcher. It sounds like they want him to be what they had wanted J.D. McKissic to be, and I can see a lot of targets coming his way. Seeing that Singletary had 50 targets to himself in 2021, I have absolutely no problem in saying that Cook will have at least 50 targets… and potentially see that number within the 60s territory.

Sticking with the law of averages for running backs that had seen 60+ targets in 2021, we can assume Cook will reel in about 47 of those balls. The average Y/R was 7.4 for those players, so let’s assume Cook can rack up 348 receiving yards. We’ll also throw in three touchdowns, as the average for players with 60+ targets was 3.7 touchdowns.

Final Projected Rookie Stat Line

115 Attempts, 477 Yards, 4 Touchdowns, 47 Receptions, 348 Receiving Yards, and 3 Touchdowns.

Total PPR Points: 171.5 (This would have been the RB25 overall in 2021). Not a bad floor to establish as a rookie.

Dynasty Outlook

If you’ve stuck with me so far, I’m sure you’re wondering what Cook’s dynasty/future outlook is going to be. While I wouldn’t say that I have all of the answers, I can point out some things that could happen.

Singletary is in the last year of his contract. While I would say it is likely that they bring him back, there is most definitely a chance that Cook could become the “1A” of that backfield if Buffalo does decide to bring in a running back other than Singletary ahead of the 2023 season. Even if they do re-sign Singletary, it’s entirely possible that this backfield becomes more of an even split, with Cook getting the majority of pass-catching attempts.

There’s also the possibility of injury to Singletary and given the upside and skillset that Cook has, could lead Cook to be a weekly Top-15 fantasy running back. I’m definitely not one of those guys that take victory laps on injuries, but I’d be lying if I said that Cook shouldn’t be considered as one of the best “handcuffs” to own in the entire league. Guys like Alexander Mattison and Tony Pollard have proven to be RB1’s when asked to fill in as the starter, and Cook could very easily fit the bill.

There’s also the possibility that Cook is just a Nyheim Hines or Tarik Cohen type of player, but given his draft capital and the considerably less amount of competition for touches, I’d have a hard time projecting him to land in this category. Even if this does happen, I’d like to remind you that both Hines and Cohen have finished as Top-15 running backs at least once in the last four years. Pass-catching running backs are insanely valuable, especially in the era of football that has teams turning away from having a true workhorse and moving towards committee approaches.

While there is a wide range of outcomes for Cook, there don’t appear to be many scenarios where he completely burns people. A Top-25 finish as a rookie would be a welcomed sight and should be everything that you could hope for with Cook. If he has a productive rookie year, he’ll cement himself as one of the best & most consistent RB2’s to own in fantasy for many years to come.

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Conclusion

I absolutely had to write this article because of the sheer amount of misinformation and ignorant takes about Cook. The people who are going against Cook being a first-round rookie selection are thinking too narrowly. No one who loves Cook thinks that he’s going to be a generational Top-10 running back for fantasy purposes. And the people that do think this are simply being too optimistic.

The reason why Cook is being drafted in the Top-10 is that he offers insane reliability in a scarce position on a high-powered offense that is led by one of the best young quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. And I know the rebuttal to that is “See, I told you he’s just being drafted high because of his landing spot”. Does a stellar landing spot help? Absolutely, but it’s not the only reason why he’s being taken so high.

In the pre-draft stage of dynasty rankings, he was somewhere between the RB3 and RB5 for many analysts out there. I promise you that he didn’t magically appear when he went to Buffalo. The analysts who were paying attention and realized that Cook had a high probability of going on day two of the NFL Draft had him ranked accordingly ahead of time. I know his ADP may feel like an over-correction to some, but if you’re one of those people. You were way too low on Cook in your pre-draft process.

Understandably, Cook isn’t for everyone. However, you have to remember that not every player you draft is meant to be the next Jonathan Taylor or Justin Jefferson. Sometimes you just have to take the guy that offers both safety and upside. Let’s face it, rookies like Moore, Dotson, and Watson don’t offer immediate WR1 upside and they may never finish in the Top-15 of their position. You may think that you’re drafting more upside with those guys, but the truth is, that’s probably not the case.

Cook deserves to be taken as early as pick 1.07 and should not fall out of the first round in any rookie draft out there. It’s time to stop with the ignorant takes of him going too early and that he’ll never have the role people want him to have. If you step back and take a realistic approach to fantasy football, it becomes incredibly easy to spot value. Don’t make the mistake of skipping over Cook in the late stages of the first round of your draft. I genuinely believe that he’ll become one of fantasy’s most reliable RB2’s over the next several years.

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