Dynasty Fantasy Football — Buys, Sells, And Holds: Week 1

Welcome back to our weekly dynasty fantasy football series. In this series, we delve into the weekly performances that have left an impact on the general trade market. Throughout this series, we’ll steer you through key choices that shape your team’s fate. In the first week of this new NFL season, we assess prime targets for your lineup, players to let go, and players worth your patience. In case you missed it, you can find last week’s edition of this series here.

As a preface, when I say “Buy”, “Sell”, or “Hold”, it is in reference to the price shown by the trades that accompany the player section. If you can get a price that you deem better in your own leagues, feel free to take a different route, As a baseline, all of the trades are sourced from 12-team Superflex/2QB leagues.

Calvin Ridley, Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars

For all of you dynasty managers who held or bought low on Calvin Ridley over the past year, before the trade to Jaguars and his subsequent reinstatement, congratulations. In his debut, Ridley immediately showcased his value to Jacksonville.

To recap his explosive showing, he tallied eight receptions on 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown. Although a 20-yard reception got nullified due to a hold, he came close to scoring another touchdown but stepped out of bounds after the catch. Ultimately, the only hiccup was a fumble, which fortunately rolled out of bounds before a Colts player could recover it.

To sum it up, Ridley was well worth the wave of hype that has been building all offseason. The player that was on the field yesterday was every bit of the player he was in Atlanta, without a spec of rust or a sign of slowing down. For all managers looking to contend week in and week out, for both this year and beyond, Ridley is a must-buy.

Trade One: 2024 first round pick, 2025 second round pick

Trade Two: Christian Watson, 2024 third round pick

My Verdict: Buy

Puka Nacua, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Rams

The 6’2″, 201-pound rookie wideout, Puka Nacua, stepped up for the Los Angeles receiving corps on Sunday as Cooper Kupp sat on injured reserve. Nacua led the team with 15 targets, resulting in 10 receptions for 119 receiving yards. While he had a shaky start with a dropped pass, he still commanded a substantial 41% target share throughout the game, proving to be a reliable target for Matthew Stafford.

Despite not being the most athletic player on the field, Nacua displayed his ability to make plays after the catch, amassing 42 yards after the catch on Sunday. While he won’t replicate Kupp’s production every week, Nacua’s performance was impressive.

However, that begs the question of what his role looks like with the return of Kupp. Now, I cannot truly speculate as to what the offense will look like inside and out, but I do know that Cooper Kupp is one of the best receivers in the league when he’s healthy. He also dominates the Rams’ target share, averaging well over 30% of their targets in the Stafford era.

Ultimately, it’s too early to definitively say what Nacua is, and I am not willing to plant a flag on him yet. There are only five wide receivers taken on day three that are within the top 50 at the position on Keep Trade Cut. At the time of my writing this, Nacua is one of those five.

This leads to a question of risk tolerance. Are you willing to bet on him to be an outlier, or are you willing to “sell high” and wash your hands of this profile that has very few paths to meaningful long-term success?

Trade One: 2024 second round pick

Trade Two: Baker Mayfield

My Verdict: Sell

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

Just as many of you likely were, I was looking forward to this new-look Bears team. With a revamped supporting cast around Justin Fields and a defense built to the liking of Head Coach and defensive guru Matt Eberflus, some were even projecting this team to make the playoffs. For anyone who has a memory, they remember that this very same organization earned the first overall draft pick last season. So why the high praise? It was optimism in Fields to take a leap forward akin to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. An unfair and unrealistic expectation for the, shall we say, rocky passer.

So, how did the new era kick off? Well. From the get-go, Chicago’s offense lacked cohesion. Fields was no small part of the lack of success for the Bears on Sunday. Pro Football Focus recorded 36 pressures on him. The sophomore missed deep shots and struggled to target DJ Moore. Fields rushed for 59 yards on nine carries, mostly scrambles. He completed 24 of 37 passes for 216 yards, scoring once but also throwing a costly pick-six.

Throughout the game, Fields skillfully dodged pressure, turning potential sacks into opportunities Expectations were high, but Fields’ performance raised doubts. Yet, not all issues were his fault. The revamped offensive line, expected to excel, surrendered four sacks to Green Bay’s relentless pass rush.

Trade One: CJ Stroud, Jordan Addison

Trade Two: Mac Jones, Deebo Samuel, Aaron Jones

My Verdict: Hold

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

In Thursday night’s 21-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, Lions rookie rusher Jahmyr Gibbs had a deliberate, limited workload compared to veteran David Montgomery. Coach Dan Campbell explained this choice, emphasizing it wasn’t due to game tempo. “That was what we talked about with him. First game, out of the gate, there again, man — we really didn’t wanna overload any of those (rookies)…”

Gibbs took the field for 19 snaps, accumulating 42 yards on seven carries, averaging an impressive 6.0 YPC. He also caught two passes. In contrast, Montgomery had 21 rushing attempts for 74 yards, with a 3.5-yard average, including the crucial go-ahead score.

Despite fewer opportunities, Gibbs showcased his talent well. Out of his 42 rushing yards, 34 came after contact, demonstrating a robust 4.9 yards per carry. Remarkably, he forced six missed tackles while touching the ball just nine times, per Pro Football Focus.

A standout moment occurred during Gibbs’ second carry. Operating from the shotgun formation, he gained momentum, executed a spin move to evade two tacklers, and then powered through Chiefs safety Bryan Cook for a 17-yard gain.

Despite the flashes and the glamour, the open market on Gibbs is rabid right now as you can see from the trades below. Even though I love the player and what his peripherals point towards, if you can get these returns on him, I am fine letting go. I want to stress that these prices are these prices for a reason. If you don’t get an offer I am fine staying put and holding.

Trade One: Roschon Johnson, Chris Olave

Trade Two: 2024 first round pick, Brandon Aiyuk

My Verdict: Sell

Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Kadarius Toney was anticipated to step into the role of Kansas City’s new top receiver after JuJu Smith-Schuster’s departure. He was poised for a significant role in the game, especially with Travis Kelce sidelined. However, Toney’s performance had a twist that significantly influenced the game in the Lions’ favor.

Unfortunately, he had three critical drops during the game. The first drop resulted in a turnover as rookie safety Brian Branch capitalized on the bounce and scored six points. The second drop denied the Chiefs a potential touchdown, settling for a field goal instead. The third drop happened during the final offensive drive, where a successful catch could have positioned Kansas City for a game-winning field goal. Instead, the drop left them in a long down-and-distance situation, sealing their fate.

In the end, Toney’s stats were meager, with just one reception for one yard out of five targets. It’s safe to say that his drops had a devastating impact on the Chiefs’ chances in this game.

Now, that performance did not help things with the career arc of this now-disgraced former first-round pick. However, I think he is a perfectly fine buy in your deeper lineup leagues for current prices, especially in best ball. At the end of the day, he is a healthy wide receiver on an offense with Patrick Mahomes. Touchdowns are coming.

Trade One: 2024 3rd round pick

Trade Two: Trey Lance

My Verdict: Buy

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

After one of the best starts to a career a fantasy manager could ask for, Breece Hall tragically tore his ACL in a contest against the Denver Broncos. There were many discussions in the offseason about his viability coming off of injury and the history of players who have suffered the same fate. Many of these players who came back the year following injury started off slow and often had hamstring injuries due to the process of ACL reconstruction surgery.

On Monday Night Football, Hall quenched those concerns by rushing for 127 yards on the ground, adding on 20 more as a receiver. Suffice to say, 147 yards on 11 touches while splitting the workload with Dalvin Cook is pretty good. Additionally, he managed to get to the impressive 12.7 YPC mark by breaking off several impressive runs. One such run came in the second quarter starting from the Jets’ four yard line. He broke through the front seven and then proceeded to gain 83 yards. In fact, had Garrett Wilson attempted to cut off the closest pursuing defender instead of celebrating, Hall might’ve taken it to the house.

To summarize, Breece Hall is still very clearly the same talent we saw last season. He will need a bit of patience from fantasy managers as his workload grows, but he is still a viable play in the flex until proven otherwise as he threatens to break open a game on any given touch.

Trade One: Kenneth Walker, George Pickens

Trade Two: 2024 first round pick, 2024 second round pick

My Verdict: Buy

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

In Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville, Josh Downs began as the slot receiver, making three catches for 30 yards on seven targets. He was on the field for 57 of 72 offensive snaps. While not a standout NFL debut, Downs showed promise.

He ranked second in targets on the team, and his preseason rival for the slot receiver position, Isaiah McKenzie, only saw one offensive snap. If rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson keeps improving, Downs might become more productive as the season progresses.

While I can’t cosign starting him in fantasy lineups just yet, he will be a much more appealing asset in bestball. Furthermore, teams in leagues with steeper starting lineup requirements may also look to throw him in the last flex spot for an upside swing at a touchdown.

Trade One: Justyn Ross, 2024 third round pick

Trade Two: Raheem Mostert

My Verdict: Buy

JK Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

In the first half against the Texans, JK Dobbins, the Ravens’ fourth-year running back suffered an ankle injury. Coach John Harbaugh confirmed it as an Achilles tear, ending his 2023 season. This adds to his history of injuries, with multiple knee issues limiting him to seven games over the past two seasons.

Dobbins is aiming for a six-month recovery, similar to Cam Akers‘ experience in 2021. Akers returned late in the season for the Rams’ Super Bowl run, but his injury occurred in mid-July, while Dobbins’ happened later. If all goes well, Dobbins could be back on the field by February.

However, I do not subscribe to the optimistic outlook for the young rusher. The new Achilles injury comes on the same leg that was shredded in the preseason of 2021. What little burst he had left is likely sapped away. Sell the recognizable name for whatever you can get folks.

Trade One: 2025 third round pick

Trade Two: Ezekiel Elliott

My Verdict: Sell. Drop if you can’t get a deal done. It’s over.

As we begin to navigate this new season, remember that the choices you make now can shape your team’s future. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or hold players, these early glimpses into a new season can guide your decisions. Keep your eyes peeled for upcoming articles where I’ll continue to share my latest verdicts on the unfolding headlines. Stay tuned for more actionable advice to help you make the most informed moves for your dynasty roster.

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