Fantasy Football Sleepers: The NFC North

What is a sleeper in fantasy football? Basically, it is a player who exceeds their average draft position (ADP) over other players from the same position with a similar draft cost. An example from 2021 of this would be Mark Andrews. He outperformed all others at his position in fantasy points per game (FPPG) while being drafted as the fifth tight end in the 5th round. That’s big value with a lesser price tag. It’s like bargain shopping against your friends and family!

To help you out with identifying a number of athletes who could fall into the ‘sleeper” category, I will list one player from each NFL team that could provide a huge boost for your squad at a nicely discounted price. We’ll go by divisions for this article so you can more easily access these spicy picks.

NFC North

Chicago Bears –  QB Justin Fields

Chicago’s hopeful answer to a franchise quarterback, Justin Fields was drafted in the 1st Round of the 2021 NFL Draft. In his rookie campaign, he did little to ‘wow’ fantasy managers. His greatest strength is his agility and speed. In 2021, he ran the ball 72 times for 420 yards. If Fields can improve his passing numbers, he could become a dangerous fantasy weapon.

At first look, the Bears didn’t really upgrade any of the offensive weapons over the offseason. Allen Robinson left for Los Angeles, Jimmy Graham’s days may be over and the defense took some losses, as well. Byron Pringle makes for a solid second or third option for targets and maybe we’ll see something from N’Keal Harry. There’s still David Montgomery as a reliable check-down option, too. In any case, passing will be the go-to method of moving the ball this season.

Fields’ ADP is the 13th round right now. With the full training camp to work with the first team offense, there’s the promise and hope that Fields will make the next step forward in his professional career. Those legs of his, alone, could drive him past Trey Lance come season’s end.

Detroit Lions – WR D.J. Chark

Behind the passion and enthusiasm of head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions made some waves at the end of the 2021 season after Campbell took over play calling. With one of the most improved offensive lines over the last few years, there’s reason to believe that this team will surprise folks again in 2022.

The biggest addition to Detroit’s receiving room is arguably rookie Jameson Williams, but he is a rookie and will likely miss the first few weeks of the season due to injury. D.J. Chark is the next big name in terms of recent acquisitions. Since his breakout 2019 campaign, Chark has continued to make big splashes on the field. Since his rookie year, he’s averaged over 14 yards per reception and scored 15 times. Come Week 1, he will be one of the main focuses of Jared Goff in the passing game.

Chark has some crazy early season value. He is coming off the board at the round 13-14 turn behind rookie Treylon Burks and the three Kansas City receivers Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Suppose Williams does see considerable playing time after his debut. In that case, the number of opportunities Chark gets in those first weeks will be more than enough to catapult him above Burks and at least two of those three Chiefs receivers. 

Green Bay Packers – A.J. Dillon

Last season we saw A.J. Dillon garner a much bigger role in the Packers’ ground game as he went from 46 carries in 2020 to leading the team with 187 carries and 803 rushing yards in 2021. Aaron Jones is still on the roster and will be the lead back, but his role may be shuffled into more passing work after the departures from Green Bay this offseason.

In a surprising transition, Davante Adams has moved on to Las Vegas. Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown also departed for new teams. Together, they leave a bevy of vacated targets (248) for the remaining players. Two rookies, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs were brought in via the NFL Draft while Sammy Watkins also signed with Green Bay. Allen Lazard projects to be the first look on passing plays, but who will be number two? My guess is Jones. Why does this all matter? If Jones is out running routes, that leaves more carries for Dillon, who is the stronger, between-the-tackles running back. It’s quite likely that Dillon surpasses 200 carries in 2022 while still getting some targets.

Both of the Green Bay running backs look to have great production this coming season. I thought about making an argument for Jones here, but his ADP of the mid-second round is too high. Dillon’s ADP of the mid-fifth round as the 26th running back off of the board is a really good value. An uptick in touches and fewer game-breakers on the offense could push him into the top 20 range above fellow ball carriers like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers, and Elijah Mitchell who are all going at least a round earlier.

Minnesota Vikings – Kirk Cousins

The sheer fact that year after year, Kirk Cousins compiles enough yardage and touchdowns to finish as a QB1 (also known as a top 12 quarterback) and is still ranked outside of the range every following year will forever baffle me. Outside of the 2019 season when he threw only 444 passes (career-low as a full-time starter) he has thrown for over 4,000 yards and at least 25 scores every year since 2015, including three of four seasons in Minnesota with at least 30 touchdowns thrown. Show this man some respect!

All the big names are still in Minnesota. Justin Jefferson gets tons of yards and catches. Adam Thielen is one of the strongest end zone threats in the league. K.J. Osborn had some spectacular moments after stepping for his injured teammates. Irv Smith Jr. is healthy after missing 2021 altogether. New head coach, Kevin O’Connell, comes over from the very successful Rams offense and the Sean McVay coaching tree. He has also worked with Cousins in their days together in Washington.

Right now, Cousins is being drafted as the 15th quarterback in the 10th round. He is being selected behind Derek Carr and Trey Lance. I’ll take Cousins’ consistency over Carr’s any day. Lance is the better scrambler, but his palpable lack of experience has me leaning towards Cousins, as well. A top-10 quarterback season is a shoe in this year, with a ceiling of top six for Cousins.

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