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The 2022 NFL season is less than a week away, and fantasy football players are drafting by the hour. Over the next 72 hours, there will be thousands of fantasy drafts with plenty of money on the line.
While there are several keys to winning your fantasy football league, finding sleepers who outperform their average draft position (ADP) is the most critical. If you can find those league winners in the later rounds, you will have a leg up on your league mates.
Here are seven of my favorite sleeper candidates with an ADP outside the top 100.
All stats are based on PPR scoring. ADP is via FantasyPros.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots – ADP 103.5
The New England backfield is a two-headed monster. Damien Harris was the RB14 last season, while Stevenson was the RB47. However, Stevenson was equally as good when given the touches.
Both backs averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt last season. The big difference between their fantasy production was touchdowns, where Harris had 15 compared to five for Stevenson. However, Stevenson averaged five yards per touch compared to 4.8 for Harris. Furthermore, both running backs had two top-12 weekly finishes. Yet, Stevenson accomplished that feat despite seeing only 38.9% of the backfield workload.
More importantly, Stevenson has impressed the coaching staff in training camp and reportedly will take on the James White pass-catching role. Meanwhile, Harris averaged 14 fantasy points per game last year. Yet, Stevenson averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game in the two games without Harris by comparison. If he can get 40 or more receptions and steal some touchdowns from Harris, Stevenson will be a league-winner.
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP 113.1
As a rookie, Claypool had an impressive year. He was the WR19, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. He also had the eighth most touchdowns among wide receivers in 2020 with nine. Many expected a big sophomore performance from Claypool after his strong rookie season.
Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Claypool struggled and was the WR37 last year, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per contest. His drop in production wasn’t surprising, given the quality of his targets. Claypool’s aDOT dropped from 13.3 as a rookie to 11.5 last season. On top of that, he saw a massive drop in deep targets from his rookie season to last year.
In 2020, 29.5% of his targets were deep targets. Then, that number dropped to 19.3% last season. However, the change at quarterback should change that this year. Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, they can push the ball downfield more than Ben Roethlisberger could last season. Assuming he can stay healthy, Claypool is an excellent post-hype sleeper candidate.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears – ADP 126.3
Many had high hopes for Kmet last season. However, he ended the year as the TE20, averaging only 7.1 fantasy points per game. While that was disappointing, there were some bright spots for Kmet in 2021.
He was second on the team in targets with 93, finishing only behind Darnell Mooney. That being said, his play improved when Allen Robinson missed time. In the five games without Robinson, Kmet averaged 6.8 targets and 9.2 fantasy points per game. He scored over 13 fantasy points twice during that span and had seven or more targets in three contests. More importantly, Kmet’s game took a massive step forward in Justin Fields’ final four games last season.
Unfortunately, Fields left the Week 11 game early because of an injury. However, Kmet averaged 7.3 targets and 10.8 fantasy points per game in the other three games. His targets per game were up 25.4% from his season average, while his fantasy points per game were up 34.3% from his season average. His 10.8 fantasy points per game average would have made him the TE5 over a 17-game pace despite not scoring a touchdown. Kmet is my favorite late-round tight end to draft this year.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers – ADP 169.2
While the rest of the fantasy football world has jumped on the Doubs hype train, I have been leading it since he got drafted in April. The Packers lost Davante Adams and Marques Valdes-Scantling this offseason. They left behind 224 targets and a 37.8% target share from last year’s team. Instead of signing a top-tier free agent, the Packers signed Sammy Watkins in free agency.
However, they did use three draft picks on wide receivers. While Christian Watson was the first of the trio, he hasn’t made much of an impactful this offseason as he struggled with drops and had minor knee surgery. With Watson sidelined, Doubs took advantage of the situation.
Doubs has repeatedly received praise from Aaron Rodgers. He has made several impressive plays in training camp, repeatedly beating starting cornerbacks in one-on-one situations. Furthermore, he led the Packers with 15 targets and two touchdowns in the preseason. While Allen Lazard projects as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Packers, Doubs could take over that role as a rookie.
Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints – ADP 171.4
Despite a lack of weapons, Winston had 14 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions in seven games last year before tearing his ACL. He scored over 25 fantasy points in two of those contests. Instead of replacing Winston this offseason, the Saints did everything possible to help him succeed in 2022.
New Orleans used one of their two first-round picks on Chris Olave. They also signed Jarvis Landry shortly after the draft. More importantly, Michael Thomas is 100% after missing nearly two years because of ankle issues.
Last year Winston was the QB14 on a points-per-game basis throwing to a bunch of no-name wide receivers. If he can build a connection with his new weapons early in the year, Winston could end the season as a top-10 quarterback.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – ADP 192.8
I am a big fan of the great or late-round tight end strategy this year. If you miss out on Kmet, Everett is an excellent fallback option. While he has averaged only 5.8 fantasy points per game in his career, Everett had his best year last season.
He had 48 receptions on 63 targets for 478 receiving yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game last year, all career highs. More importantly, Everett finally played with an elite quarterback last season after spending the first four years of his career with Jared Goff. All in all, he was a productive player when given enough targets.
Everett scored more than 14 fantasy points in three of the six games with five or more targets last year. He also averaged 10 fantasy points per game in the eight games with four or more targets last season. Over a 17-game pace, Everett would have been the TE8 with that average. With Justin Herbert under center, Everett could have the first top-12 season of his career.
Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons – ADP 297.1
Typically rookie quarterbacks fail to turn into productive fantasy players. However, several rookie quarterbacks have finished in the top 10 over the past few years. Herbert was the QB9 in 2020, while Kyler Murray was the QB8 in 2019.
Somewhat similarly, Deshaun Watson was on pace to be the QB1 as a rookie in 2017 until he tore his ACL in practice. Still, Watson ended the year as the QB1 on a points-per-game basis. While he doesn’t have the talent or upside of those three quarterbacks, Ridder does have a pathway to a top-15 finish.
He is an excellent late-round target in Superflex leagues. Ridder has two elite athletic freaks to throw to in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. He is also a capable runner and could average over 45 rushing yards per game once he takes over as the starter. Even though Marcus Mariota was named the starter to begin the year, it’s only a matter of time till Ridder takes the job.
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