The 2024 NFL Draft is finally here! All the rookie mocks, the research on players, everything we thought we knew will come to fruition tonight and the rest of the weekend! As many of you asked, I jumped on doing Superflex risers and fallers based on our 178 rookie mocks this season! Thanks to all who participated with us on Sleeper! Interested in joining a mock? Join our Discord today to jump in a mock draft.
Dynasty Rookie Average Draft Position (ADP) – Risers & Fallers
After reviewing my initial analysis of risers and fallers, I realized there was considerable overlap with my previous 1QB ADP Risers and Fallers. As a result, I have provided a more comprehensive and distinct viewpoint. This time, I have revised my list and identified alternative players to showcase their potential and evaluate their recent setbacks. Let’s get into the latest risers and fallers in our up-to-date Superflex dynasty rookie ADP.
Risers
Frank Gore Jr., RB, Southern Miss (+15)
Frank Gore Jr., the son of former NFL running back Frank Gore, is the biggest riser amongst our Superflex and 2QB mocks. He rushed for over 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns over his four-year career at Southern Miss. Overall, his first two years were okay. However, he really excelled in his junior and senior years. Additionally, he put himself on the radar after winning MVP at the East-West Shrine game as he rushed the ball six times for 87 yards and a touchdown. Not to mention, he also had a 49-yard touchdown scamper.
Now, teams may not highly seek Gore as a running back in the upcoming draft. He lacks that breakaway speed that teams look for. However, he has the durability to take the load and the vision to find the hole. Not to mention he had to make some of his own plays.
Overall, he’s a late-round pick at best in your upcoming rookie drafts as he’ll more than likely be a Day 3 pick or a priority free agent in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State (+13)
A tight end could compete against Ben Sinnott for the title of the next-best tight end here. Brock Bowers surpasses TE1 here by a significant margin. TE2 and beyond quickly become chaotic. Notably, Bell was the fastest tight end at the Senior Bowl, clocking in at 18.95 MPH.
Moving forward, Bell will more than likely be viewed as a gadget-type of player going into the NFL. Although he only finished 155 yards behind fellow receiver Keon Coleman, he lacks a lot a team would love. All in all, a team would be best that could take time to groom him as he is not the best blocker and does not have the greatest hands.
That being said, Bell should see late Day 3 capital. More importantly, he is someone who should be drafted as your last pick in the fourth round at the earliest in rookie drafts.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia (+6)
Many knew of Ladd McConkey as he was part of a receiving core withBowers yet was going as a late-second-round pick. Now, he boosted himself up after a blazing 4.39 40-yard dash along with great footwork. As a result, he’s now going in the mid-second of rookie drafts.
As we know, this wide receiver class is a loaded one. McConkey could see himself staying here in the second round of rookie drafts. After a solid 2022 season, 2023 had you wanting more. If it wasn’t for the injuries, he could have had an even better season.
As for negatives, many will say McConkey had drop issues. Although that was true for his 2022 game tape, 2023 showed an improvement. After an impressive combine and Pro Day, I’ve seen NFL mocks with him going as high as the end of the first round. If this stands true, McConkey could be a great value here in the second round of your rookie drafts.
Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan (+6)
Just like McConkey, Roman Wilson also ran a 4.39 40-yard dash. However, it was the Senior Bowl that really put him on the radar for everyone else who didn’t watch Michigan games. His quick feet, reliable hands, and speed were on full display during the practices.
Furthermore, it was seen in Michigan’s games but wasn’t utilized to the max due to Jim Harbough’s ground-and-pound mentality. However, he did show separation and can turn to the ball when needed. Overall, Wilson started out at the beginning of the third round before the NFL Combine. Now, he’s at the back end of the second which I feel is a good spot for him to stay at as he’s viewed as someone who will go Day 2 this week.
Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC (+6)
With the running back rankings, I’ve seen Marshawn Lloyd as high as No.1 and nothing lower than RB8. Lloyd has the potential to be a three-down running back who lacks the receiving upside. Additionally, he has a sneaky pass-catching upside that was utilized more in his South Carolina Gamecocks Day compared to USC. Although he had his most receiving yards as a Trojan, he didn’t record a touchdown.
On the bright side of things, Lloyd has tremendous speed. Once he gets the ball in his hands and past linebackers, good luck catching him. Notably, he had seven 25-plus yard runs in seven of 11 games. Not to mention an impressive 7.1 yards per carry for the 2023 season.
Finally, Lloyd is a low-mileage back who has the most to gain and the most to lose. Even with his talent, I feel like not just draft capital, but landing spot will be a huge factor. If you believe in Lloyd, his perfect landing spot for me is the Los Angeles Rams or the Buffalo Bills. If he lands with one of those two teams, he would be no lower than the RB4 in this class going into the mid-second round.
Michael Penix, QB, Washington (+4)
A player who saw his stock fall after a loss in the National Championship is back up and on the rise is Michael Penix. As of right now, Penix is our QB5 based on all of our rookie ADP. The main four quarterbacks continue to go in the first round of mocks, while Penix has been a steady mid-round selection in the second round. However, in 2QB leagues, he’s now matching the same mid-second pick as Superflex.
Now rumors are not only saying that Penix could sneak in at the end of the first round but could potentially go somewhere in the top-15. His arm strength and accuracy are some of the best out of this year’s class. What looks to be a mid-second-round pick could turn into as high as a late-first rounder in drafts. All in all, he could be a fantastic value in Superflex and 2QB dynasty rookie drafts.
2024 NFL Draft Quick Links
- Senior Bowl Standout Players
- 2024 NFL Draft Eligible Prospects Returning to School
- 2024 NFL Draft Tracker: Underclassman Who Have Declared
Fallers
Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona (-7)
Amazingly it’s funny what a Combine performance can do to a player’s stock. Jacob Cowling measured in at 5’8 and 168 pounds, both of which were less than what he was listed at Arizona. However, this could be a great buy-low window in dynasty leagues. Either way though, he’s still a fourth-round pick and almost a borderline fifth-round/free agent in 2QB leagues.
Overall, Cowing proved so much throughout his career. He’s a true playmaker and separator. Still, with him falling, I’ll gladly take him in the fourth round.
Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky (-6)
It’s hard to hate this third-round running back as wide receivers are pushing Ray Davis‘s stock down. That’s fine, as he’s also one of the older running backs in this class. Ultimately, he could be a player who should go somewhere in the fourth round.
Furthermore, Davis has the sneaky upside of being a three-down back. However, he runs a little slower (4.52 40), than he may look. In the end, he could be a player who will serve as an RB2 and be one injury away from being a featured back.
Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville (-6)
Going as a mid-fourth-rounder, Jamari Thrash has found himself falling to the end of the fourth, if not later. It’s amazing how deep this class is at wide receiver, and I can’t stress it enough. You have the consensus top three and then everyone else.
Furthermore, he may be a fifth-year player, but let’s not forget about the Covid season. This is the last of the Covid class and Thrash could hear his name late Day 2 to sometime in round 3. He’s projected as a slot receiver and could dominate on many NFL offenses.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon (-5)
Was Bo Nix good because of the systems he was in? Yes, he had ball placement problems while in college. Not to mention getting to his second and third reads. All of which were seen during his career and the Senior Bowl. Additionally, the majority of his passes (66.7%) were behind the line of scrimmage in 2023.
However, Nix did boost his stock ever so slightly at the NFL Combine. However, there are still many questions around him. Can he be comfortable in an NFL offense like he was at Oregon? Or could he be scrambling and showing his flaws more and becoming a bust?
Overall, I see Nix not being a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but more of an early Day 2 pick just like how he is right now. He went from a late first-rounder to a mid second-round pick. However, a quarterback is invaluable in 2QB and Superflex dynasty leagues, so take advantage of any discount.
Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama (-4)
One of the riskiest prospects for this class is Jermaine Burton. Everything he’s done on the field has showcased his above-average athleticism. From his quickness to his technical abilities along with his 10-inch strong hands. Needless to say, this kid can ball.
Now for the negative side. Unfortunately, he has a lot of off-the-field issues. This has not only caused his NFL Draft stock to fall but also his dynasty league football stock. Although he hasn’t dropped much, it’s enough for him to make the list. All in all, he may be a decent value this year.
