PrizePicks NFL Future Bets

The excitement of the NFL free agency, crazy and exciting trades, the NFL Draft, and the rookie mini-camps have all ended. Now there is nothing. We’ve entered the dead zone of the NFL where we won’t see or hear much till mid-July. With this downtime, I like to start putting my rankings together, doing Fantasy Cares Eliminators leagues, and doing NFL future bets and player props. One of the best places to go for this is PrizePicks.

New to PrizePicks? No problem, as we’ll give a quick overview. You choose to pick two, three, four, or five players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected statistical total of passing yards for quarterbacks, rushing yards for running backs and if you didn’t guess it yet, receiving yards for receivers.

You are building your parlays (definition: to place a bet as part of a series of bets using cumulative winnings) and the larger you build them (up to five) the more lucrative the payout can be when creating your parlay. Once you have your parlay set, you will see a “Power Play” or “Flex Play”

What’s a Power Play? Power plays vary from the number of players that are selected in your parlay your payouts are:

• Pick two: 3x if picked correctly.
• Pick three: 1.25x if two are correct and 2.25x if all three are correct.
• Pick four: 1.5x if three are correct and 5x if all four are correct.

Just like Power Plays, you have the opportunity to multiply your money even more if you pick three or more on your parlay and your payouts are:

• Pick three: 5x for all three correct picks
• Pick four: 10x for all four correct picks
• Pick five: .4x for three correct, 2x for four correct, and 5x for all five correct picks.

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What is PrizePicks? Learn all about it in PrizePicks 101.

Patrick Mahomes

OVER 4600.5 Passing Yards

With the way the AFC West is built, it’s looking like a division that will be full of shootouts. You would think with the loss of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins would knock me projecting Patrick Mahomes on the over. The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to keep the spark alive and make it back into the Super Bowl. Paying Hill $30M+ to stay was not in the plans.

With 159 targets up for grabs, the Chiefs signed free-agent JuJu Smith-Schuster and went out and drafted Skyy Moore in the Round 2 of the NFL Draft. Travis Kelce will get his share, and the Mahomes-led Chiefs will be looking a whole lot different now with Tyreek out of the picture. Last year, Mahomes was able to throw for 4,829 yards, and that was with the old AFC West who was being challenged by Justin Herbert and company. Now with Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, and the Los Angeles Chargers coming for that division title, the Chiefs will have to lean more on Mahomes to carry them. Two years in a row over 4,600 passing yards, make it three now with a confident Over.

Javonte Williams

UNDER 1100.5 Rushing Yards

At the start of the offseason, everyone would’ve been all over Javonte Williams and taking the Over here. Why? Melvin Gordon was a free agent and not signed, and no one was brought in during that time either. Then right before the NFL Draft, Gordon signed a one-year deal to remain with the Denver Broncos. Those of you who took the over before the signing, I feel sorry for you jumping the gun.

Last season, both Williams and Gordon evenly split the carries 50/50 with 203 apiece and Williams finished with 903 rushing yards to Gordon’s 918. If you made it a 60/40 split, then you should be nervous because Williams would be at or over the total, but that was with the old coaching regime. Nathaniel Hackett was hired as the new head coach and the Broncos pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks to get Russell Wilson. The Broncos now have a quarterback that can throw the ball and not be a game manager.

If Hackett brings over what he did at the Packers, then the rushing game could and should go down and the passing game should go up and be more efficient. A competent quarterback with the best pass-catchers around him for his career and this running back core has me expecting both Broncos backs to split 50/50, making the Under an easy one to play right now.

Kenneth Walker III

OVER 550.5 Rushing Yards

The Seattle Seahawks showed their hand in the NFL Draft showing they are going to be more of a ground-and-pound team. Taking Charles Cross in the first and Abraham Lucas in the third right after Kenneth Walker in the second is a much-needed upgrade that should have been done during the Russell Wilson era. Now it’s the Geno Smith/ Drew Lock at the helm and what do we think the Seahawks are going to do? Hand it off.

We don’t know the status of Chris Carson as of this writing, but so far it doesn’t sound good for the 2022 season as the Seahawks have doubts about him returning from his neck injury. I think this backfield will be a 1A and 1B approach with Rashaad Penny getting the majority of the carries to start as he is only signed through for the 2022 season. Penny has never had a fully healthy season and I think that the Seahawks see Walker as their starter at some point. Nevertheless, it’s Penny’s backfield at the moment and his starting job to lose. With the way the injury bug has hit Penny, I have no confidence in him being the starter without injury throughout the year. It’s also worth noting that there have already been reports of Penny dealing with a hamstring issue. 

We saw that when Penny was the starting back in four starts he had 632 rushing yards. The Seahawks could start as a 60/40 approach with Penny leading the backfield to start, but by some point, during the season we could see a 50/50 at worst, similar to what the Denver Broncos do in 2020.

Ja’Marr Chase

OVER 1300.5 Receiving yards

Last season Ja’Marr Chase put up 1,455 yards with 10 touchdowns off of 89 receptions. Albeit, he sat out his final season at LSU and was able to explode onto the scene as a rookie last season. The connection that Chase and Joe Burrow have will continue to grow for many years to come and that especially includes the upcoming 2022 season.

With the improvements on the offensive line, Chase is coming in with his 23.7% of the overall target share from the prior season. That number should go up to a Justin Jefferson rate near 29% of a target share because he’s just that good. Yes, there’s other competition alongside him, but his talent is second-to-none. Along with his burner speed, he was third in deep targets in 2021 with 30. Once that ball is in his hands, he can take it to the house.

We saw many blown opportunities in the Super Bowl, including the final play where Chase was wide open but the offensive line was unable to give Burrow the real opportunity. Now that it looks to be fixed, Burrow should have the time to get the ball to his speedy receiver. I think it’s an easy smash for the Over as I see by season’s end Chase is the top receiver in the league.

Brandin Cooks

OVER 950.5 Receiving yards

The hate for Brandin Cooks just always seems funny. I feel likeCooks is the Nickelback of wide receivers. We as a fantasy community love him, but the NFL and gambling sites just seem not to, but secretly they do. Cooks has had 1,000+ receiving yards in six of his last eight seasons. How can we not expect it to happen in year nine?

The Houston Texans drafted John Metchie III in the second round, to complement Cooks on the field instead of defenses focusing on him. Cooks should be that much more efficient with his numbers and should easily surpass the 950.5 receiving as he has over the last six out of seven years. The hate has gone too far and especially here at 950.5 yards. His only under 951 receiving yards recently was his down year in 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams who had both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp go over 130 targets, 90+ catches, and over 1,100 yards each. Kind of hard to have a third wide receiver do it when there was Todd Gurley in the backfield.

Cooks has no competition and no new quarterback. This is an easy smash on the Over.

A.J. Brown

UNDER 1100.5 Receiving yards

A.J. Brown has been nothing but an excellent wide receiver when on the field. In his three-year career, he has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards twice and last year was held to 869 yards over 13 games. When he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles I was ecstatic thinking pairing him up with his college quarterback Jalen Hurts would send him well over the moon of 1,001 receiving yards.

Pairing him with DeVonta Smith should do many wonders and help him excel. I did some deep research and found the last wide receiver to go over 1,100 receiving yards was back in 2014 by a wide receiver many have forgotten in Jeremy Maclin (1,318). Over the last seven years, only Smith came the closest to Maclin last season as a rookie with 916 receiving yards. The chemistry should be there for Hurts and Brown, but it’s also already there with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert who had 830 yards and took that step forward once Zach Ertz left.

To think now Brown can break that seven-year curse and be the first wide receiver over not only 1,000 yards but 1,101 yards is a lot to expect. I have a feeling Brown takes a step back. He should be close to if not at the 1,000-yard mark, but I can confidently say since he’s never had a 1,100-yard season, that trend will continue into 2022 because the Eagles are just not that pass-happy of a team.

PrizePicks 101

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