Every year there are wide receivers in the middle rounds of the draft that finish top 12 at the end of the season. Last year, Deebo Samuel (WR2), Ja’Marr Chase (WR5), and Mike Williams (WR10) were all drafted outside the top-24 wide receivers. Yet, all three finished as top-12 wide receivers in 0.5 PPR scoring.
Let’s look at ten potential wide receivers with an ADP outside the top 24 who could end the year as a WR1.
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DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
(WR25 | 53.0 ADP)
Last year Metcalf was the WR12, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson this offseason, leaving Metcalf with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock at quarterback. While that is a massive downgrade for Metcalf, it’s not the end of the world.
In the three games that Smith started last season, Metcalf averaged six targets, 14.9 fantasy points, and a 23.1% target share. Furthermore, he had two of his five best fantasy performances with Smith under center. More importantly, Metcalf was the WR8 during those three weeks without Wilson.
Metcalf was very productive with his targets, averaging 1.6 fantasy points per target last year. However, that number rose to 2.48 fantasy points per target in Smith’s three starts, a 35.5% increase. While the downgrade at quarterback isn’t ideal, Metcalf has the big-play ability and talent needed to go off any week.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
(WR26 | 54.5 ADP)
Bateman is a popular breakout candidate after the Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals during the NFL Draft. The second-year receiver from Minnesota had a quiet rookie season, averaging only 6.7 fantasy points per game. He ended the year as the WR60 on a points-per-game basis. However, Bateman showed potential last year when given enough targets.
After missing part of camp and the first five games of the regular season because of an injury, Bateman scored 4.9 fantasy points on six targets in his first career game. Despite playing catch up with the rest of the offense, Bateman finished with six targets in his second career game, only one behind Mark Andrews.
More importantly, Bateman had six or more targets in the first five games of his career. Despite not finding the end zone, he averaged 1.1 fantasy points per target in those games. Furthermore, Bateman averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game and 1.17 fantasy points per target in the eight games with more than four targets as a rookie.
As Lamar Jackson’s new and unchallenged No. 1 wide receiver, Bateman should take a massive step forward this season. He has a real shot at cracking the top 12 this year.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
(WR27 | 54.7 ADP)
While Smith-Schuster has earned a reputation as overrated or not the star player he once was, that is simply not true. Last year he played only five games as a shoulder injury cut his season short. However, he was the WR18 in 2020, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game. That average was the same as his rookie season when Smith-Schuster was the WR21.
There’s no denying that the past three years have been rocky for Smith-Schuster. However, his two down seasons were not really his fault. In 2019, Ben Roethlisberger missed the final 14.5 games with a severe elbow injury. Smith-Schuster averaged only 5.9 targets per game that year and 7.7 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had a 4.85 target quality rating, ranking 87th among wide receivers, according to PlayerProfiler.
That isn’t surprising when Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were Big Ben’s replacements. Thankfully, Smith-Schuster is still only 25 years old and will get to play with Patrick Mahomes this season.
The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason, and Smith-Schuster is the most talented receiver on the top to step into the No. 1 role for the Chiefs. Before Roethlisberger’s severe elbow injury, Smith-Schuster had a top 10 finish in 2018 despite Antonio Brown’s 26.7% target share. If he can return to that 2018 level of play, he has a pathway to a top 10 finish this year.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
(WR28 | 57.4 ADP)
After the Bears let Allen Robinson leave in free agency, Mooney is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago. Last year he had 140 targets, the 11th most in the NFL. More importantly, his 8.2 targets per game were a 25.6% increase from his rookie season average.
Mooney remained productive with his targets despite a merry-go-round at quarterback. After averaging 1.24 fantasy points per target as a rookie, Mooney averaged 1.28 fantasy points per target last season. Furthermore, his production jumped in the games without Robinson.
While he scored only one touchdown in the five games without Robinson last season, Mooney still averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game. On a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR15 last season with that average. Furthermore, he had at least seven targets in every game without Robinson, including nine or more targets twice.
Justin Fields reportedly has made massive strides this offseason throwing the ball. Mooney could lead the league in targets this season, thanks to limited competition at wide receiver. Mooney will be a top-12 wide receiver if he is among the league leaders in targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
(WR30 | 60.3 ADP)
St. Brown was a league winner last season. Over his final six games, St. Brown was the WR2 overall, averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he averaged 11.2 targets per game during that stretch. Over a 17-game pace, St. Brown would have totaled 190 targets. If he had 190 last season, it would have been only one fewer than Cooper Kupp’s total.
However, those expectations are unrealistic for St. Brown. Before his impressive six-game stretch to end the year, St. Brown averaged only 4.7 targets and 5.2 fantasy points per game. While he won’t average 20.9 fantasy points per game or over 11 targets per game in 2022, St. Brown still has plenty of upside.
The Lions added several players this offseason. However, none of them should have a meaningful impact right away. DJ Chark has averaged 1.4 fantasy points per target in his career and was signed to only a one-year deal. Furthermore, he is coming off a fractured ankle injury that ended his 2021 season after only four games.
Meanwhile, rookie Jameson Williams is unlikely to be ready to start the year after suffering a torn ACL in his final game at Alabama. Even once he’s ready to play, Williams will be behind the rest of the team in practice reps and time learning the playbook. While his future is bright, Williams likely has little fantasy value as a rookie. Thus, St. Brown should again be the focal point of Detroit’s passing attack this year.
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Elijah Moore, New York Jets
(WR33 | 68.5 ADP)
Just when Moore was starting to show the fantasy player he can be, injuries ended his season early. Over his final five games as a rookie, Moore averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game. He scored at least 11.9 fantasy points in all but one of those games while scoring 17.5 or more in three contests. Furthermore, he averaged 2.27 fantasy points per touch in those five games.
Some might be turned off to Moore because of the moves the Jets made in the offseason. They re-signed Braxton Berrios, then signed C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in free agency. After that, the Jets used the tenth overall pick in the NFL Draft on arguably the best rookie wide receiver in this class, Garrett Wilson. While the additions will impact Moore’s potential target share, they will also keep opposing teams from double-teaming him all the time. With Moore and Zach Wilson heading into their second year in the NFL, expect a massive improvement from both players.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
(WR37 | 75.2 ADP)
The Atlanta receiving core looks dramatically different than it did 15 months ago. Julio Jones got traded to the Tennessee Titans and recently joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Calvin Ridley will miss the 2022 season with a suspension, while Russell Gage signed with the Buccaneers in free agency. The only fantasy impactful pass catcher left is Kyle Pitts, which is why London has top 12 upside as a rookie.
Defenses will have to focus on stopping Pitts, who was one of the better tight ends last season despite scoring only one touchdown. More importantly, rookie Drake London has Mike Evans-like skills. Defensive backs will struggle to contain him in one-on-one situations. Another positive note is that the Falcons will be chasing points much of the year. With limited competition for targets, London could average over eight per game. If he does, don’t be surprised if London ends his rookie season as a low-end WR1.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
(WR41 | 82.7 ADP)
While the NFL offseason was full of blockbuster trades, arguably the craziest story was Kirk signing with the Jaguars. After handing Kirk all that money, the Jaguars will make him the focal point of their passing attack. Furthermore, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, Dan Arnold, and the rest of the Jacksonville receiving core are far from an elite unit.
Last year, Kirk had a career-high 103 targets with the Cardinals. He also averaged a career-high 1.64 fantasy points per target last season. More importantly, Arizona started to use him more downfield last season as Kirk had an 11.2 aDOT and averaged a career-high 9.5 yards per target. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence should have a break-out second season with Doug Pederson on the sidelines. The Jaguars will be in negative game script enough this season to give Kirk a chance at a top 12 finish.
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans
(WR49 | 103.5 ADP)
The 2021 season was a semi-rocky one for Woods. He struggled early in the year, averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game over the first three games. Then, Woods averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game over his final six games, scoring at least 10.1 fantasy points in every contest. More importantly, Woods was starting to build a connection with Matthew Stafford before tearing his ACL in practice.
After the Los Angeles Rams signed Robinson in free agency, they traded Woods to Tennessee. With A.J. Brown now in Philadelphia, Woods will start the year as the No. 1 wide receiver for Ryan Tannehill. While the Titans used a first-round pick on Treylon Burks, his first offseason in the NFL has been far from perfect. Furthermore, it will take some time before he becomes the No. 1 wide receiver. If Woods and Tannehill can build a connection quickly, Woods could have his first top 12 finish since 2018.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
(WR50 | 104.8 ADP)
Claypool had an impressive rookie year in 2020. He was the WR19, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he was eighth among wide receivers in receiving touchdowns that year with nine. After a strong rookie season, many had high hopes for Claypool in 2021.
Unfortunately, he struggled last season and ended the year as the WR37, averaging only 9.1 fantasy points per game. His aDOT dropped from 13.3 as a rookie to 11.5 last season. Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, the Steelers should be able to push the ball downfield more this season. Another factor worth noting is the hype surrounding the rookie wide receiver, George Pickens, which could continue to push Claypool’s price even lower. Assuming he can stay healthy, Claypool has a chance to break out in 2022. He is an excellent post-hype sleeper candidate.
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