7 High-Risk/High-Reward Players for Fantasy Football

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Every year, we as fantasy players are always looking for an edge. You don’t win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it. We’re always looking for an advantage in our leagues. Some of these players don’t have a long track record in the league. While others are on the brink of falling off a cliff where the term comes in, “I’d rather be a year early, than a year late”. This isn’t saying we shouldn’t swing for the high-risk/high-reward players, but understand the risks we’re taking. Here are 7 High-Risk/High-Reward Players for Fantasy Football that can help you win your leagues this year. 

Derrick Henry

There is no denying that when Derrick Henry is on the field, he has week-winning upside for your fantasy teams. In 2019 and 2020, Henry was the top running back in attempts, especially in 2020 when he had 378 attempts for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. 2021 started no differently as Henry was on pace for well over 450 carries before he went down after a Week 8 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He came back in the playoffs against the Bengals but was held in check rushing the ball 20 times for 62 yards.

If you are concerned about Henry and his foot, you shouldn’t be. He has been working out like crazy to get back into season form. Not to mention that this team looks different than it did this time last year. With the trading of A.J. Brown, the downgrade in the offensive line, and another year older for Henry as he is now 28, the decline is coming. But when?

The risk with Henry is that he has a lot of mileage on him already. He already has over 1,400 rushing attempts through his professional career, and that’s not even including his college or high school totals. It’s easy to acknowledge that Henry is a one-of-a-kind talent. He is the offense as long as he is a Titan. The risk is there as his efficiency has been going down every year, but his opportunities will be there as long as he is.

Javonte Williams 

A dark horse in the room is second-year running back Javonte Williams. Last season as a rookie, he and Melvin Gordon split the backfield right down the middle at 50/50. Last season, per FantasyData, in PPR Williams finished as RB17, while Gordon finished as RB20. Williams is currently going 2.08 (RB13). With the Denver Broncos talking about the running backs going on a pitch count, this could affect Williams’ outcome. Not to mention that this offense has been completely revamped with the trade for Russell Wilson. I like the talent of Williams and a plus side is if he would have had four more touchdowns, he would have been the RB10 last season.

 I’m a little nervous about how this backfield will play out. The way I see it, there are two ways this backfield unfolds. Either we see a split backfield and an RB13 value that he’s being drafted to finish as a low-end RB2. On the contrary, let’s say Denver gives the reigns to the young running back and Williams is the lead back for Denver. If that happens, he could easily produce low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers and rewards managers greatly. His second-round ADP certainly holds risk, but with the AFC West being a juggernaut he could return the value that we are hoping for. 

James Conner

Going into the last offseason, James Conner was a running back looking for a new home as the Pittsburgh Steelers went on to draft Najee Harris in the 2021 NFL Draft. Many faded Conner in drafts last year, but if you rostered him, you were rewarded.

So why did we fade him in 2021? It all starts with his history. In 2018, then star running back Le’Veon Bell held out for the season. Conner was the back to have and finished with 215 attempts for 973 yards, 12 touchdowns along with 55 receptions (71 targets) for another 497 yards and a receiving touchdown. 

Furthermore, we were taking Conner at the end of the first in 2019, just to be let down. We did the same in 2020, thinking of him being the lead back, hoping 2020 would be better than 2019. It was, but the return on the draft capital did not pay off for fantasy managers. 

2021 came and here he’s going in the 8th round (8.12) in PPR drafts. Conner went on to be a touchdown machine in his first year in Arizona as he scored 18 total touchdowns, three of them only through the air. Looking at his stats from his final season in Pittsburgh back in 2020 and comparing them to his first year in Arizona were shocking. Conner had 33 more carries last season to go with 31 more rushing yards. To add to that, Conner had four fewer targets, but two more receptions. 

While the numbers look the same, what made him so great last year? His 18 total touchdowns, that’s what. In his final season in Pittsburgh and with similar stats to last season, Conner only scored six touchdowns and none of them through the air. Last year he absolutely destroyed that number. 

Every year we buy the year before Conner, to be let down by the following year Conner. Conner is currently going as a mid-third round pick, and even if he takes a slight downtick in touchdowns, you’re not spending too high of a draft pick on him. Keep in mind there still is the risk as we’re chasing those touchdowns. 

Travis Kelce

For the first time since 2016, Travis Kelce was not the No.1 fantasy tight end in 2021. He finished as the No.2, behind Mark Andrews. Kelce will look to regain the No.1 spot now with Tyreek Hill no longer on the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year fantasy managers were taking Kelce in the first and he once again is going late first or early second. 

With Hill gone, Kelce should see an automatic spike in targets as his two best seasons of his career, which were in 2018 and 2020, he saw at least 145 targets. We’ve been hearing that Patrick Mahomes will be spreading the ball around to his wide receivers and running backs, but nothing about the tight ends. It’s just assumed that Kelce is who he is and he’ll be fantastic as long as he’s on the field.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has massive upside as well and rookie Skyy Moore also has the upside. Basically, anyone in this offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in Mahomes obviously comes with upside. Mahomes has the most chemistry with Kelce. Kelce had a run from 2016-2020 as the No.1 tight end in fantasy. He finished No.2, about 40 points behind Mark Andrews. 

You might be wondering at Kelce’s age 32 season, that he will be slowing down, but it doesn’t look that way. If you look at what he did during the 2021 playoffs, you could still see the power and the difference-making ability he possesses. A record-breaking season could and should be coming Kelce’s way and managers could be heavily rewarded if all goes to plan based on ADP. 

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Tyreek Hill

Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is an obvious downgrade for Hill. Although this may be true, Hill’s talent is one of a kind. He can outrun most defenses once he hits the open field. We are still drafting Tyreek as a WR1 going in the second round, but can we really trust him to continue to put up WR1 numbers? 

Last season, Hill was able to finish as the WR6 in PPR. Although this may be good overall, Hill only scored over 30 points three times while having five games in the single digits, and six of you include Week 18. We’ve been enjoying the WR1 days of Hill, but will they continue? Currently going as, the WR8, the risk is switching quarterbacks, but with the news of Tagovailoa being so accurate, are we sleeping on Hill?

Michael Thomas

A name that makes you cringe every time you see it is the one and only Michael Thomas. The last time we saw Thomas was in 2020 when he went for 40 receptions, 438 yards, and ZERO touchdowns. It’s hard to stomach, but we were drafting him in the first round of PPR (1.06) per our friends at Fantasy Football Calculator. The bad thing is that Thomas got injured in Drew Brees‘s final season and only had seven appearances to go on and finish as the overall WR95.

On the other hand, Thomas was able to produce 16+ PPR points in three games and double digits in four games. Although we didn’t get to see the Thomas we drafted so early, we did see those glimpses at the end of the season that showed why we took him in the first round. 

Thomas did not play a down in 2021 as his rehabilitation on his ankle had a setback. Here we are in 2022 after missing about a year and a half of football and Thomas is now back on the field. Videos of him running and finally coming off the PUP list. Thomas has been moving up draft boards and now he has a hamstring injury. We know the injury risk and history Thomas has had over the last couple of years, but buying the dip (5.02 in PPR) could reward managers who are drafting Thomas as a low-end WR2.

Deebo Samuel 

If you’ve heard it once, I’ve heard it at least a hundred times. Deebo Samuel is not going to produce the way he did in 2021. Last season Samuel had 77 receptions (121 targets) for 1,405 and six receiving touchdowns. Looking at his WR2 finish, those stats alone would have finished him as a top-10 wide receiver. What was the icing on the cake for Samuel was his rushing stats. Samuel had 59 rushing attempts for 365 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Whenever you see stats like this, many will say “regression” right away. Looking at his stats from last season, he averaged 18.2 yards per reception and 6.2 YPC. If you were to put that into a running back perspective, Samuel would have ranked near the top with players with the same amount of carries. 

This offseason Samuel signed a 3-Year $71.55M extension with the 49ers. The language in it has something with bonuses for rushing the ball. All offseason we heard that he doesn’t want to run the ball anymore, throwing up red flags for fantasy managers because “he’s going to get hurt if he keeps running the ball”. I don’t see anything wrong with drafting him as the WR7 in drafts and would feel like taking victory laps if I got him as my WR2.

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