Fantasy Football AAV: Over and Undervalued Players – June Edition
I have been running regular auction mock drafts since March and below, have identified two players from each position, which I believe are over and undervalued at their current Average Auction Value (AAV). Data is being regularly updated and a new over/undervalued article will be coming next month. To look up current AAV, you can access our customizable table and graph here.
AAV Data
Quarterbacks
Overvalued – Patrick Mahomes ($38)
Tyreek Hill is gone and Travis Kelce will be 33 in October. That alone should give you some hesitation. At $38, Mahomes’ AAV is currently third, which is what you’re banking on at that price, a top-three finish. With Hill last season, Mahomes finished fourth overall in terms of total points for quarterbacks and 5th in fantasy points per game. I have Mahomes finishing closer to the 5th or 6th overall range this year.
There’s no denying that Mahomes is an otherworldly NFL talent, but extracting value is what auction drafts are all about and Mahomes’ $38 price is too steep for me given where I have him finishing. Based on name value alone, someone will pay up for him, it just won’t be me.
Overvalued – Ryan Tannehill ($10)
$10 may not seem like a huge price to pay in auctions for a starting NFL quarterback but in this instance, I believe it’s a bit high. The Titans lost one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL in A.J. Brown and replaced him with 30-year-old Robert Woods, who is coming off a torn ACL, and rookie Treylon Burks. The Titans are projected to be one of the lower passing volume teams and don’t have much in the way of receivers outside of Woods and Burks.
Last season, Tannehill was 12th overall in total points for quarterbacks and 16th in fantasy points per game and I am expecting his numbers to decline even further this year. Give me Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, or Jared Goff, each of which are less expensive than Tannehill at the moment and, I’d argue, all have better weapons.
Undervalued – Kirk Cousins ($16)
Did you know that last season Cousins was 9th overall in yards and touchdowns? He was also tied for third-fewest interceptions thrown of any quarterback that started more than 14 games and averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game. Cousins offers a tremendous floor and having one of the best and youngest wide receivers in the game, Justin Jefferson, certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Last season the Vikings were tied for the 11th most passes per game. Look for that number to rise in 2022 with new head coach, Kevin O’Connell, the Rams’ previous offensive coordinator. Cousins is set up to finish inside the top 10 and I’d be a buyer anywhere near his current price.
Undervalued – Zach Wilson ($5)
The Jets spent the offseason completely revamping their offense, which bodes well for Wilson’s fantasy outlook. From Weeks 8-11 last season, Elijah Moore was the WR1 in PPR and was targeted on nearly 25% of the routes he ran. The Jets also drafted Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, both of whom will help Wilson in his sophomore season.
Though he didn’t run a lot, Wilson actually had more rushing yards than Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers, to name a few. $5 is superb value and though I expect his price to rise, if you can draft Wilson as your Superflex quarterback anywhere near that number, you should be doing your happy dance!
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Running Backs
Overvalued – Nick Chubb ($36)
Currently, Chubb’s AAV of $36 is the 7th-most expensive of all running backs. For that amount, you’re expecting him to finish no worse than in the top seven and are probably hoping for even higher. Last season, Chubb finished 13th overall in both total points and FPTS/G in PPR. In 2020, Chubb was 11th overall. You could argue that in the terms of pure running ability, Chubb may be the best in the entire NFL.
In a non-PPR or 1/2 PPR format, I can absolutely make a case that Chubb’s AAV is justified. In PPR, however, Chubb’s fantasy appeal drops precipitously. He’s still worthy of RB1 status but he’s at the very back end of that tier for me. There are several running backs with a lower AAV than Chubb I’d rather go after.
Overvalued – Antonio Gibson ($28)
It’s hard to find a more polarizing fantasy running back than Gibson. The endless threads on Twitter can attest to that. The fantasy community was recently buzzing with excitement when it looked as though J.D. McKissic might be traded. Alas, it was not meant to be. Not only is McKissic still on the team, but the Commanders also drafted power runner, Brian Robinson in Round 3. Gibson’s workload is rumored to “vary weekly,” while he and Robinson are expected to share the load.
If you’re thinking that new quarterback Carson Wentz will be a major upgrade for Gibson, you should know that from 2018 to 2019, Wentz had the 6th lowest check-down percentage of any quarterback on any down. Gibson had 52 targets last season, 21st in the NFL for all running backs. While the Commanders are expected to be a fairly pass-heavy team, there are running backs with similar or even lower AAVs than Gibson I’d rather target.
Undervalued – Melvin Gordon ($8)
It’s pretty amazing if you compare Gordon’s and teammate Javonte Williams‘ 2021 stats next to each other. Both had 203 rushing attempts, both finished almost identical in YPC: Gordon, 4.4, Williams, 4.3, and their total fantasy points were surprisingly close: Gordon, 167.2, Williams, 161.9.
Playing in one fewer game than Williams, Gordon even bested him by 1 fantasy point per game. Do I expect the Broncos coaching staff to primarily use Williams this year? Of course. But with Gordon re-signed, you can bet he will still be involved. And while I don’t think he quite matches his 10.5 FPTS/G, with Russell Wilson at the helm, that number won’t be far off. For $8, he is a great value and entirely worthy of being an RB3 or Flex option for you.
Undervalued – Darrell Henderson ($3)
After Cam Akers ruptured his Achilles during training camp, Henderson rocketed up fantasy rankings. He had a great opportunity, which he definitely made the most of. From Weeks 1-12, he was the RB14 in PPR. Henderson averaged 57 rush yards/game, 3.3 targets/game, and scored eight total touchdowns. His weekly production was solid and offered steady RB2 numbers, though he did miss five games. Akers was able to make it back for the Rams’ final regular season game and their Super Bowl run, but he looked anything but explosive.
In the 4 playoff games, Akers averaged a paltry 2.6 YPC, had two fumbles, and zero touchdowns. Regardless of how the Rams’ backfield shakes up, Henderson’s current price shouldn’t be overlooked. With Sony Michel now in Miami, should Akers struggles or gets reinjured, Henderson could once again step into a starting role and would be an instant RB1.
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Wide Receivers
Overvalued – Deebo Samuel ($27)
Samuel absolutely lit the fantasy world on fire in 2021, finishing as the #3 overall wide receiver (or running back, depending on how you look at it) in PPR leagues. Currently, Samuel has the seventh-highest AAV of all WRs at $27. Trey Lance will undoubtedly steal valuable rushing and goal-line attempts away from Samuel and the 49ers are projected to be one of the lowest passing volume teams. I think there’s a good chance that, for his price, Samuel doesn’t return the type of value and the fantasy numbers you want from your WR1. I view him more as a WR2 this season and with Brandon Aiyuk presumably to be more involved, Samuel’s current cost is too expensive for me.
Overvalued – Tyreek Hill ($24)
Hill goes from one of the most explosive and pass-heavy offenses in Kansas City to the Miami Dolphins, another team projected to have one of the lowest passing volumes. Hill is also going to have a lot more competition for wide receiver targets than he did as a member of the Chiefs, with teammate Jaylen Waddle likely to surpass his own 140 targets from last year.
Tua Tagovailoa‘s arm strength is mediocre and only had a total of 20 passes all season that traveled 30+ yards, tied for the fifth-fewest. That doesn’t bode well for Hill and his fantasy managers looking for consistent, explosive plays. Should Hill’s price come down, similar to Waddle’s ($19), who could easily be the team’s top scorer this year, I’d be much more interested.
Undervalued – Gabriel Davis ($6)
From two wide receivers who play on some of the lowest passing volume teams in the NFL, we shift to two players on some of the most pass-happy teams. Up first is Davis and the Buffalo Bills. Excluding the Week 16 game he missed, from Weeks 14 through the playoffs, Davis ran routes on 84% of the team’s passing plays, saw an overall 20% target share, and was targeted 20% on his routes run. Even if those numbers stay exactly the same all the way through 2021, with a current AAV of just $6, there’s no denying that Davis is extremely undervalued. We could be looking at a massive third-year breakout coming our way. At his price, he’s an absolute, must-buy.
Undervalued – Russell Gage ($1)
Okay, so this is just silly. Gage moves from the Falcons, who threw the ball the 19th fewest/game (33.7 attempts), to the Buccaneers and Tom Brady, a quarterback that threw the most passes with 719 and had the most attempts per game with 43. Gage had a respectable 94 targets last year and I am expecting him to eclipse 110 as Chris Godwin could very well be starting the season on PUP. Should Gage’s AAV stutter and remain in the low, single digits, draft him and reap the rewards!
Tight Ends
Overvalued – The Top-5 tight ends?
I believe there’s a case to be made that the AAV of the entire top tier of tight ends is overvalued, with each player having red flags to consider at their current cost:
Travis Kelce ($28)
Kelce will be 33 in October and will see a lot more double coverage without Hill. In addition, there’s ever only been six tight ends out of 96 who were 32 years or older, that have finished top-three. Kelce’s target share has fallen each of the last three years, 19.9% last season, his lowest since 2018. There’s a saying, “It’s better to be a year too early, than a year too late.” It’s still very likely that Kelce will finish somewhere in the top-five, given the sharp decline in tight end talent, but make no mistake, the cliff is absolutely coming. Maybe it’s not this year but for $28 or 14% of my total budget, I don’t want to find out I bought in a year too late.
Mark Andrews ($24)
Andrews and the Ravens are going to be below the league average in pass attempts this year and like Kelce, will see a lot more double teams without Marquise Brown. Andrews averaged 71 yards/game with Lamar Jackson and 101.6 yards/game without. Prior to last season, Andrews’ career yards per game average was 57.3. Andrews will be Jackson’s first read on nearly every drop back but with the Ravens’ low passing volume, I would also expect his weekly yardage total to be closer to his career average.
The target share will be there for Andrews, I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect his 194.1 PPR fantasy point season to be repeated. Without question, however, he’s still an every-week TE1.
Kyle Pitts ($21)
After Calvin Ridley sat out most of last season, rookie Pitts became the de facto number one receiving option for the Falcons. Looking ahead to 2022, Matt Ryan is out and Marcus Mariota is in. The Falcons should be right around the league average in pass attempts per game but a boosted receiving core after drafting Drake London 8th overall and the signings of Bryan Edwards and Auden Tate, all of whom will eat into Pitt’s targets. Oh, and Cordarrelle Patterson and his 69 targets from last year, are still around. Like Andrews, Pitts is an every-week TE1, but a lot of his value hinges on how successful Mariota will be.
George Kittle ($21)
Kittle sits even with Pitts in terms of AAV and many of the same concerns I have with Deebo Samuel can be attributed to Kittle. He has missed 11 games in the two last seasons due to his uber-physical style of play and though he did miss three games last year, he only had 9 total targets in the red zone. That’s less than what Jonnu Smith, Austin Hooper, and Ricky Seals-Jones had, to name a few. He’s still a TE1 but my expectations are very tempered.
Darren Waller ($19)
Can Derek Carr make three receivers fantasy-relevant? That’s a big question and one worth asking. Waller missed six games due to injury in 2021 and now has Davante Adams to compete for targets with. Adams was tied for second last year with 169 targets and Hunter Renfrow was tied for 13th with 128. The Raiders do figure to be above the league average in passing attempts per game and Waller’s price is a bit more palatable than the other tight ends mentioned. I also think his ceiling is higher than KIttle’s since games in which AFC West teams face their division rivals will likely see each team light up the scoreboard. Just keep in mind that Adams is absolutely going to eat and Renfrow will still be a major piece to the offense.
Undervalued – Irv Smith Jr. ($1)
Smith missed all of 2021 with a meniscus tear in the Vikings’ final preseason game. In 2020, Smith was tied for 11th in red zone targets with 10, which he converted into five touchdowns, tied for sixth among all tight ends. As mentioned above with Cousins, the Vikings will likely be above the league average in pass attempts per game and though Adam Thielen will still heavily be involved in the offense, he suffered through his own injuries last year, missing four games. Not to mention, Thielen will be 32 when the 2022 season begins. Smith has plenty of upside this year and could be a great late-round target. Take the discount!
Undervalued – Cole Kmet ($1)
Last season Kmet was held without a touchdown reception. So how can be undervalued? A season ago, Kmet was tied for seventh in tight end targets and ninth for total team targets and red zone targets. The top 20 tight ends in FPTS/G last year, on average, scored 5.3 touchdowns. Had Kmet just hit that number, he would have vaulted from the 22nd overall tight end all the way to 11th, right behind Zach Ertz. And that’s not even taking into account the extra yards.
Sure, this is hypothetical but the potential is there and Kmet is due for some positive regression. And, yes, the Bears aren’t projected to win a lot, nor will they most likely be one of the league leaders in passing attempts, but outside of Darnell Mooney, Kmet doesn’t have a lot of competition. He’s basically free and has a path towards offering great returns on what is essentially zero investment cost.
AAV Data
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