2022 Rookie Class vs. 2022 Sophomore Class: Running Backs
We’ve been hearing this offseason that the 2023 rookie class is better than the 2022 class. I’m going to be doing a series of articles talking about the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. I’ll be ranking the 2021 rookies and the 2022 rookies together.
We’ve completed the quarterback portion of the series, and let me tell you this much. I enjoyed writing it and look forward to doing a reflection at the end of the season. This time around we will be going over the running back position. I initially came up with ranking them, which you will see below, and let me tell you as I was writing this piece, I had to re-rank the running backs just for it to make sense. Conclusion as of today: I like the 2021 class better, I am not going to lie.
Have you ever seen the movie Draft Day? If you haven’t, I highly recommend you do. For those of you who have you will understand this quote, “Breece Hall no matter what”. If you have the 1.01 in your rookie draft right now, it’s take Breece Hall or trade down. This kid is the top running back of this class and in dynasty, running backs hold so much more value than any other fantasy-relevant position, outside of 2QB and Superflex leagues.
Ranking All Of These Running Backs Together For Dynasty Leagues
- Najee Harris
- Elijah Mitchell
- Javonte Williams
- Travis Etienne
- Breece Hall
- Ken Walker III
- Dameon Pierce
- Michael Carter
- James Cook
- Rachaad White
- Tyler Allgeier
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Tyrion Davis-Price
- Zamir White
- Isaiah Spiller
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Keaontay Ingram
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Chuba Hubbard
- Kyren Williams
- Trey Sermon
- Chris Evans
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Tier 1
It should come as no surprise that Najee Harris is the RB1 right now out of the classes. With 300 rush attempts, and 94 targets in the passing game, Harris finished the 2021 season with 1,667 total yards and 10 combined touchdowns. Harris should see an uptick in carries this season with Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett under center and should be pushing for the RB1 overall in 2022.
From a sixth-round pick to fantasy gold, I have Elijah Mitchell with the biggest jump. He was a fourth-round draft pick or a waiver wire add in dynasty and redraft leagues and comes in at No.2 in 9/11 games, Mitchell saw double-digit carries and saw 20+ carries over his final five regular-season games as he was in and out of the lineup with injuries.
The injuries will have many concerns for Mitchell, but he had a cleanup procedure on his knee and should be 100% for training camp. Over the last four years, there has been no consecutive leading rusher since Carlos Hyde. Every year since Hyde has been a different running back taking the reins due to the original starter getting hurt. I see Mitchell bucking that trend and pushing to be an RB1 this season that is going later than he should in drafts.
Next up is Javante Williams as we were looking for him to be an RB1 this season and then Melvin Gordon resigned. The projected workload is looking to be once again 50/50 just like it was last season. With the signing of Nathaniel Hackett as the new head coach, could we see an Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon type of approach? I see a slight uptick for Williams, but I don’t see a 1,100-yard rushing season coming.
Tier 2
The hype around Travis Etienne is real and I’m all over it. His Lisfranc injury put a damper on his rookie season but that maybe was for the best as the Jaguars were a dumpster fire. Now that former head coach Urban Meyer is gone, the Jaguars hired Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson which was just the start of the hype.
Pederson will spread Etienne all over the field as he did with Miles Sanders. Sanders isn’t an Etienne, but to think Etienne can’t put up solid RB2 numbers is insane. Etienne had 102 receptions for 1,155 yards and eight touchdowns at Clemson. To be paired up with his college quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the junior Deebo Samuel in the making is something that will be true this year. Be sure to reach for him in the fourth round of your redrafts if you can, he’ll be worth it!
My first rookie to make the list and shouldn’t come as no surprise is Breece Hall. Per Playerprofiler, his best comparable player is Jonathan Taylor. I’m being cautious here having him at five because Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said he would like to have a 1-2 punch with second-year running back Michael Carter.
Last year there were 326 rushing attempts by this running back core. No one was over 200, but I think with the skill set that Hall brings, that could change. He also serves as a threat in the passing game as he had 82 receptions in his three-year career at Iowa State.
During the 2021 season, Carter led the backfield with 147 rushing attempts. I know we’re all high and excited about the new toy in New York, but I don’t see Hall going over 250+ rushing attempts. He should have over 250 attempts between rushing and receiving, which is why I am knocking him down here to five.
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Tier 3
The next two we come upon are both Ken Walker and Dameon Pierce. I have a hard time ranking these two together as they constantly flip flop in my mind of who should be the first and why. For this part of the exercise, I have Walker sixth and Pierce seventh, but it’s super close.
If we’ve heard it once, we’ve heard it ever since he was drafted. If you haven’t guessed I’m talking about Rashaad Penny who is once again nursing a hamstring injury which is opening the door for Walker.
The Seahawks showed their hand in the NFL Draft that they were going to be run-heavy by drafting Charles Cross in the first round and Abram Lucas in the Third while taking Walker in the 2nd. The bruising back should bolster this backfield, and using a 1-2 punch with Penny and his health could push Walker into RB1 weeks if Penny were to miss any time.
Dameon Pierce is a fun running back for 2022, but beyond that, who knows? The Houston Texans are in a rebuild of their own as they try and figure out how to build this team. The plan looks so far that Davis Mills could be the franchise’s quarterback as they extended Brandin Cooks and drafted John Metchie III.
What does this mean for Pierce? Well at the moment, Marlon Mack is listed as the starter and Rex Burkhead is the RB2, leaving the RB3 slot to Pierce. We always like to use the term “one injury away” from the RB1 slot but it’s true in Pierce’s term. We could enjoy a nice combo of Mack/Pierce, but Pierce could be replaced as soon as next year as the 2023 rookie running back class is looking a lot better than this.
Going into the off-season, I was high on, Michael Carter. Just like what Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon did in Denver last year with the 50/50 split, I see Carter getting 40% of the opportunities with Breece Hall getting 60%. Last season, Carter had 147 carries along with 55 targets. I see a downtick in both, but he should be efficient.
Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman combined for 145 carries and 71 targets. I don’t think that translates well for what’s around Zach Wilson now in wide receivers and Hall. I’m thinking more around 125-130 Carrie’s to go along with 40-45 targets. He’s a good flex player.
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Tier 4
My next two backs here are ones I wouldn’t mind having on my fantasy teams, especially in PPR and you should love them too in James Cook and Rachaad White. I’ve heard the flack of Devin Singletary and how he’s more of the one to suffer than Cook, but Cook is the better pass-catcher in the reality of the game and should be for fantasy. When Josh Allen got his extension, the Buffalo Bills had to take a load off him as he had over 100 carries and took a lot of third-down plays on his own. Enter Cook, who was a third-down specialist at Georgia and gives the Bills that safety blanket that Allen needs.
Leonard Fournette signed a new three-year deal but that didn’t stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from drafting White in the third round. Photos have shown Fournette coming into training camp a little on the heavy side, but it’s June so don’t overreact to it. The Buccaneers like to go with a three-down back who can rush and receive.
Enter White. If anything is to ever happen to Fournette, White should be next in line for the bulk of opportunities. It may look like a “crowded” backfield with the re-signing of Giovanni Bernard and also still having Ke’Shawn Vaughn on the roster, but White is in my mind the second-best running back on the roster and is worth rostering in all leagues including redraft.
Tier 5
This tier is the biggest as it has Tyler Allgeier, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyrion Davis-Price, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Brian Robinson Jr., and Keontay Ingram. The reason they are all in a tier together is that they have at least one other back in front of them, but also aren’t guaranteed touches this year or beyond and could just be no better than bench depth for their respective teams. For fantasy purposes, I’ll give some quick hits.
The Fantasy community is high on Tyler Allgeier. Cordarrelle Patterson is the RB1, but also just turned 31 and everyone is excited for what Allgeier can do. Let’s not forget he was a fifth-round pick and could easily be replaced next season. Also, I’m not saying he can’t be the RB1 of the Falcon’s future and a hell of a steal in 2022 if it does pan out.
Rhamondre Stevenson is getting third-down back hype, but let’s not forget this team still has Damien Harris and James White along with rookies Pierre Strong Jr. (4th-round) and Kevin Harris (6th-round). This is a busy backfield but I see a downtick coming in Stevenson’s play. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are still there. They also traded for DeVonte Parker and drafted Tyquan Thorton in the 2nd-round.
This offense could be more balanced, causing concern for me to want Stevenson on any of my fantasy teams. Many people will say he has 10 touchdown upside, but Harris is in his final year of the contract, so why not just run Harris into the ground? He’s a player I’m happy to trade away.
I’m a really big fan of Tyrion Davis-Price, but if everyone thinks Trey Lance will be the starter, and Elijah Mitchell will produce like he did last season, what does that mean for Davis-Price? The fact he’s “one injury away” is what it means. San Francisco 49ers have not had the same running back leader in opportunities since Carlos Hyde. If Mitchell is to get hurt, does Davis-Price take over the backfield and not look back or will he just be more of a thorn in Mitchell’s upside?
Finally, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, and Brian Robinson Jr. wrap up the rest of Tier 5. Just like the guys listed above, they are an opportunity or two away from making a difference. They could make more of an impact in 2023 and here’s why.
Josh Jacobs’ fifth-year option wasn’t picked up and Kenyan Drake can be cut after this season. That leaves White as the only running back on the roster going into 2023. Does he become the RB1?
Austin Ekeler has stated he doesn’t want to be the only running back in the backfield. Complimenting him with Isaiah Spiller is a perfect running back to have to give Ekeler breathers. Many are down on what Spiller did at the combine and Pro-Day or lack thereof, which knocked his draft stock down to the 4th round. This is a blessing in disguise in a way because I think Spiller is the second-best running back on this team and could be started a few weeks as a Flex play.
Brian Robinson Jr. comes in last here for me as the final running back in Tier 5. The Washington Commanders took Robinson in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. Was it a reach? I think so. It took Robinson way too long to become the starter at Alabama, but the positive is he has low mileage on him. What I hate is he’s behind Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic and also on the Commanders (sorry guys). I don’t know how to look at this team with Carson Wentz at the helm and a disgruntled Terry McLaurin. The college helmet is nice, but I am staying clear from him.
Keaontay Ingram landed in the best spot in the Arizona Cardinals to compete with Eno Benjamin for the RB2 spot. Recently the Cardinals signed former Kansas City Chiefs running back Darrel Williams to a one-year deal. Is this bad for Ingram? No, not at all. The Cardinals needed depth behind Conner who is “one injury away” from giving the ball to whoever is ever next.
Can that be Ingram? I think so! As Per Usual, camp hype blows these rookies up with nothing but positives.
The Rest
My final running backs finish the list and these are bench depth at best. They’re a lot like Tier 5, but just slightly lower. With Kenneth Gainwell, Chubba Hubbard, Kyren Williams, Chris Evans, and Trey Sermon. You can have them in any order that you like, but I value them pretty much the same.
As for the rest, they could do something, but are likely more often to do nothing with what’s in front of them. Each of them sits as the #3 back on their respective teams and have many roadblocks stopping them from getting to the RB1 spot. Too many things would have to happen just right for them to really see a bump in value.
We all thought Kenneth Gainwell would do something last season when Miles Sanders went down, but instead, the Philadelphia Eagles played Boston Scott and Jordan Howard ahead of him. Looking at drafts and people are still drafting Gainwell late. Why?
Chubba Hubbard had his chance last season and did great with them turning almost 200 opportunities into 786 total yards and six total touchdowns. Now Enters D’Onta Foreman who is set to serve a complementary role to whoever stands out better to give Christian McCaffrey a breather here and there. As long as McCaffrey stays healthy, and that’s a BIG IF, then these two should be irrelevant, but for good reasons.
Kyren Williams had a bad combine and fell to the 5th round of the NFL Draft. His speed hinders him as being a three-down back, but he should be poised to be the team team team steam pass-catching back should anything happen to Darrell Henderson. This Rams team is explosive and with a hopefully fully healthy Cam Akers coming back, Williams should stay around at #3 on the depth chart.
You would think Chris Evans would be higher on the list but outside of his two touchdowns during the 2021 season, he had no fantasy purpose. Evans is more of a player you want that gives kick return yards as he serves more on special teams than anything else. It’s Joe Mixon’s backfield with a sprinkle of Samaje Perine.
Finally, my last running back on the list is Trey Sermon. What is there to say? A 2021 3rd-round bust. Who didn’t see that coming? If you said you did, you’re a liar. Sermon was drafted with what he did for the final three games of his college career and never picked up where he left off once drafted. Let’s remember he was beaten out by Oklahoma’s Rhamondre Stevenson before transferring to Ohio State.
I know I have missed some running backs, but I feel at this time they have a lot more to show before adding them to here. Who’s your favorite? Who do you like the least? Who am I missing?
Hit me up on Twitter @RyanMiner_FFB and let’s discuss!
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